I would say this post applies more to spreads like in football and basketball, but hockey and baseball, etc, is included in this too.
There are 3 basic lines
80% of the lines - you will vig out in the long-run. Otherwise known as "sharp" lines. You see more of these later in the year than early on. Long-term Hit Rate: 50/50 or worse on spreads
10% of lines - One side has value. Vegas can't be sharp all the time. They can also be influenced by recent events too, or they just put out a line that they think the public will react to one way, and the opposite happens. There's probably 100 other factors out there that make this situation happen. Long-term hit rate: Anywhere from 53-60% on spreads, depending on how off the line is.
10% of lines are "bait lines" - Vegas is very confident in an outcome, and will "gamble" with a line that they know for sure will suck in most bettors onto one side. Usually here they like the situation the "house" side is in. Long-term hit rate: 60% or more on spreads
Example: a #1 team being a dog on the road in college basketball
I would say most bettors can spot a 50/50 line, so the real art of betting comes to recognizing when a line is either value/trap
Thoughts?
There are 3 basic lines
80% of the lines - you will vig out in the long-run. Otherwise known as "sharp" lines. You see more of these later in the year than early on. Long-term Hit Rate: 50/50 or worse on spreads
10% of lines - One side has value. Vegas can't be sharp all the time. They can also be influenced by recent events too, or they just put out a line that they think the public will react to one way, and the opposite happens. There's probably 100 other factors out there that make this situation happen. Long-term hit rate: Anywhere from 53-60% on spreads, depending on how off the line is.
10% of lines are "bait lines" - Vegas is very confident in an outcome, and will "gamble" with a line that they know for sure will suck in most bettors onto one side. Usually here they like the situation the "house" side is in. Long-term hit rate: 60% or more on spreads
Example: a #1 team being a dog on the road in college basketball
I would say most bettors can spot a 50/50 line, so the real art of betting comes to recognizing when a line is either value/trap
Thoughts?