To post (picks) or not to post

[imgv94]

Why? I know exactly what my record is and who I picked, because I keep it all in my database. I don't need a thread to keep track of it. I also post my opinions/picks in other users' threads many times. I'm not gonna start a personal thread just to prove someone something.

I'm not surprised, figured you wouldn't want to post your plays on here.. Like always, people who dont post plays always claim to be big winners then when asked to post plays refuse so. Wonder why?

[donjuan]

Wonder why?

Because there is little incentive to do so? Basically you're giving away information for nothing in return that could later impact your ability to get good numbers, which is what sports betting is all about.

[imgv94]

Because there is little incentive to do so? Basically you're giving away information for nothing in return that could later impact your ability to get good numbers, which is what sports betting is all about.

Do you really think Arnold or anyone else here could move lines ever in their lives?

[donjuan]

Do you really think Arnold or anyone else here could move lines ever in their lives?

I was mostly talking about rogue numbers, but yes.

[Arnold]

I'm not surprised, figured you wouldn't want to post your plays on here.. Like always, people who dont post plays always claim to be big winners then when asked to post plays refuse so. Wonder why?

I don't get anything out of posting all my picks everyday, other than wasting my time on something that doesn't interest me. To prove something like this, one would have to post at least for a few months. A few days won't satisfy you, or me. All I can do is tell you that my ATS record in NBA is 56% over 250 games. That's my strongest record, other than 58% in NFL (147 games). I know you still won't believe me.

I don't know what you mean by a big winner, but I do bet every game and that adds up quite well. The only reason you don't believe me, is because you never won anything in sports betting yourself, and think it is impossible.

[diogee]

All I can do is tell you that my ATS record in NBA is 56% over 250 games. That's my strongest record, other than 58% in NFL (147 games). I know you still won't believe me.

Nice job bro...I only post my plays everyday since I am new to capping and find it easier for me to track. Keep up the good work Arnold.

[Arnold]

Nice job bro...I only post my plays everyday since I am new to capping and find it easier for me to track. Keep up the good work Arnold.

That's understandable. If you need to track your picks, it makes sense to post them. My picks are all in my database. Hopefully I'll continue doing well. I'm not saying I'm a winner, maybe it is just a lucky stretch, who knows.

[imgv94]

I don't get anything out of posting all my picks everyday, other than wasting my time on something that doesn't interest me. To prove something like this, one would have to post at least for a few months. A few days won't satisfy you, or me. All I can do is tell you that my ATS record in NBA is 56% over 250 games. That's my strongest record, other than 58% in NFL (147 games). I know you still won't believe me.

I don't know what you mean by a big winner, but I do bet every game and that adds up quite well. The only reason you don't believe me, is because you never won anything in sports betting yourself, and think it is impossible.

you are funny, yeah I've never won anything I just bet to lose.. plus I've never seen anyone post a winning season either..

Jesus Christ your response was comical. GL with your plays

[donjuan]

imgv94,

Please remind me what the incentive is for an advantage gambler to post plays.

[imgv94]

imgv94,

Please remind me what the incentive is for an advantage gambler to post plays.

whats the incentive to brag about winning on a gambling forum?

[durito]

whats the incentive to brag about winning on a gambling forum?

I'd say it's the same as the incentive to post plays.

[Data]

imgv94,

Please remind me what the incentive is for an advantage gambler to post plays.

If you allow me, a possible scenario would be creating a following that is big enough to move the line and then middling or buying back after the line moves.

[donjuan]

Data,

Presumably the line moves in your favor the majority of the time anyway.

[Data]

Data,

Presumably the line moves in your favor the majority of the time anyway.

I doubt that "majority of the time" is true. Sometimes the line does not change at all. Then, assuming market efficiency (this is a theory, not a fact), if the line moves it will move in the direction of the winning bettor slightly more often than 50%. Out of those moves, the majority are not large enough to be exploitable.

[LT Profits]

FYI, 99% of the time I bet my plays before posting them here. Thus, the lines could move all they want afterwards.

[Cee]

Some posters like to help others so they post. Some people are selfish and keep everything to themselves. That's the only difference really.

[Red_Sux]

I'm not surprised, figured you wouldn't want to post your plays on here.. Like always, people who dont post plays always claim to be big winners then when asked to post plays refuse so. Wonder why?

arnold is a smart computer guy. he might not be a seasoned gambler like you, but i bet he is smart enough to make money in sports gambling. who cares if he posts or not. i am more interested in why than what.

[WestsidePete]

I thought this forum was to share insight, information, and knowledge so we all could perform better...am I wrong??

[Red_Sux]

If you allow me, a possible scenario would be creating a following that is big enough to move the line and then middling or buying back after the line moves.

are you refering to bowlingGreenSUX? he has been moving the lines with his lock picks lately

[Red_Sux]

I thought this forum was to share insight, information, and knowledge so we all could perform better...am I wrong??

i don't think you can learn anything just by reading people's picks. who know what kind of motive they have when they posted it. it is more meaningful to post something like angles and trends etc, so it'll help on your own decision making.

[Cee]

I thought this forum was to share insight, information, and knowledge so we all could perform better...am I wrong??

When u have modern day greek gods like durito and donjuan, they above everyone so in their case Normal posters, yes

[twtb19]

I thought this forum was to share insight, information, and knowledge so we all could perform better...am I wrong??

I couldn't agree more. This is why I have a lot more respect for guys like LT Profits that post plays and share insight to help those of us not as seasoned.

I see a lot of the same guys bashing theories people post and other things and half of them don't post plays at all. I guess it is a big power trip to belittle those of us that are relatively new and try different things that hopefully will work for us and our style.

[WestsidePete]

i don't think you can learn anything just by reading people's picks. who know what kind of motive they have when they posted it. it is more meaningful to post something like angles and trends etc, so it'll help on your own decision making.

No not about posting picks at face value...the reasons behind the pick...the writeups..posting of injuries...suspensions...trends...that's more where I'm coming from...personally I'm also one who decides my own leans before looking at anything here...but do remove selections I'm on the fence about by reading the insight offered...it's so damn hard to accept dogs are the way make money overall and it's golden to find the value dogs..

[dannyt76]

Maybe there isn't really an incentive to posting plays, but I started posting plays because I figured the reason people are here in this forum is to share their plays and bounce ideas off one another on the games. I find a lot of the opinions on everyone's plays helpful and sometimes provides me with something I may have overlooked.

I don't understand why anyone would join this forum or post messages here if they think posting plays is a waste of time and doesn't benefit them. If it's a waste of time then wouldn't posting messages bragging about your win % or how much money you've won be just as much of a waste of time?

[donjuan]

FYI, 99% of the time I bet my plays before posting them here. Thus, the lines could move all they want afterwards.

That's not what I'm saying. If you post your plays, others start to be able to guess pretty well what lines you are going to bet ahead of time. If they beat you to those lines, you've just killed your ability to make money. And for what? Props on an internet forum? This is why I prefer to discuss gambling theory on here over actual picks.

And for anyone who takes issue with this, are you such freeloaders in your daily lives as well? I would have absolutely no problem discussing specific models, finding arbs, etc. in a private chatroom where I knew the benefit would be mutual.

[dannyt76]

And for those who talk about how much they are up or how great their winning % is, I actually hope it's legit. I'm glad to see that people do well with their bets. Keep on cashing in fellas.

[WestsidePete]

I think most of us have good intentions...it's really a small percentage that are loud but at times they overwelm the board...

[Red_Sux]

That's not what I'm saying. If you post your plays, others start to be able to guess pretty well what lines you are going to bet ahead of time. If they beat you to those lines, you've just killed your ability to make money. And for what? Props on an internet forum? This is why I prefer to discuss gambling theory on here over actual picks.

And for anyone who takes issue with this, are you such freeloaders in your daily lives as well? I would have absolutely no problem discussing specific models, finding arbs, etc. in a private chatroom where I knew the benefit would be mutual.

i guess you must love ayn rand

[Cee]

That's not what I'm saying. If you post your plays, others start to be able to guess pretty well what lines you are going to bet ahead of time. If they beat you to those lines, you've just killed your ability to make money. And for what? Props on an internet forum? This is why I prefer to discuss gambling theory on here over actual picks.

And for anyone who takes issue with this, are you such freeloaders in your daily lives as well? I would have absolutely no problem discussing specific models, finding arbs, etc. in a private chatroom where I knew the benefit would be mutual.

How it is that a person would be viewed as a "freeloader" if they are on a sportsforum. Where the whole idea is to share plays and analysis? Is there any other reasons to be here, that I'm missing

[donjuan]

i guess you must love ayn rand

I would consider myself a liberal in the classical sense.

[donjuan]

How it is that a person would be viewed as a "freeloader" if they are on a sportsforum. Where the whole idea is to share plays and analysis? Is there any other reasons to be here, that I'm missing

Do you have to be a contributing member of the forum to read the forum?

[diogee]

If you post your plays, others start to be able to guess pretty well what lines you are going to bet ahead of time.

I am interested in your reasoning behind this since circumstances are changing with each game.

[Cee]

Do you have to be a contributing member of the forum to read the forum?

I wasn't aware answering questions with another question is acceptable.

You can browse the forum sure, never said u couldn't

[bettilimbroke999]

Well we need some "advantage" cappers posting, b/c we've sure got a bunch of "disadvantaged" posters constantly touting picks (e.g. pavy, crazy, bowlingreen, etc.) who pick winners about every blue moon. Get some talented cappers in here mix it up a lil.

[WestsidePete]

That's not what I'm saying. If you post your plays, others start to be able to guess pretty well what lines you are going to bet ahead of time. If they beat you to those lines, you've just killed your ability to make money. And for what? Props on an internet forum? This is why I prefer to discuss gambling theory on here over actual picks.

And for anyone who takes issue with this, are you such freeloaders in your daily lives as well? I would have absolutely no problem discussing specific models, finding arbs, etc. in a private chatroom where I knew the benefit would be mutual.

You are excellent on theory..but I'm sure there are many games you do not bet on where showing an example of your theory could really help...I'm one who actually enjoys sharing with others...just feel there's plenty to go around for everybody...