college hoops sanity check

[Justin7]

3 questions for div I:
1. What is average home mov?
2. What % of time does home team win?
3. What is proper HFA adjustment?

[TPowell]

I would put home court worth around 4 points on average. Home team wins over 70% of team IIRC (mostly because top teams don't travel)

[Brock Landers]

3 questions for div I: 1. What is average home mov? 2. What % of time does home team win? 3. What is proper HFA adjustment?

quit using home made acronyms and maybe i could answer for you

[pavyracer]

be careful with these early tournaments. the listed home team plays on neutral court.

[Brock Landers]

be careful with these early tournaments. the listed home team plays on neutral court.

ALWAYS check where the game is being played, you are right, lots of neutral courts this time of year

[dwaechte]

ALWAYS check where the game is being played, you are right, lots of neutral courts this time of year

No such thing as a neutral court

[Christina33]

be careful with these early tournaments. the listed home team plays on neutral court.

Solid post

[Christina33]

No such thing as a neutral court

Epic Fail

[Christina33]

ALWAYS check where the game is being played, you are right, lots of neutral courts this time of year

[pavyracer]

If you are using a system based on home court advantage throw it out if the game is played in Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico or Hawaii or Alaska.

[Justin7]

If you are using a system based on home court advantage throw is out if the game is played in Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico or Hawaii or Alaska.

Not all HFAs are created equally (maybe?)... but you need a baseline before deciding whether one is more or less than normal.

[dwaechte]

Epic Fail

I think you may have missed the point.

[pavyracer]

Not all HFAs are created equally (maybe?)... but you need a baseline before deciding whether one is more or less than normal.

If I had a system I would try it first only on divisional games. These are the games that the fans can create a true HFA.

[Extra Innings]

Justin...Do I need to hold your hand through this?

[MartinBlank]

These pre-season tournaments are a coin flip.

Dare we say Chaminade?

[GiveMeaBJ]

These pre-season tournaments are a coin flip.

Dare we say Chaminade?

Sorry Martin but this is way off. As long as you do your research in the off-season you will be in great shape for these tournaments. Feast Week has been my most profitable week for each of the past three years. Nice low spreads. 1H unders, 2H overs. DD faves 1H. It's easier then conference play.

[Extra Innings]

Sorry Martin but this is way off. As long as you do your research in the off-season you will be in great shape for these tournaments. Feast Week has been my most profitable week for each of the past three years. Nice low spreads. 1H unders, 2H overs. DD faves 1H. It's easier then conference play.

[Justin7]

Justin...Do I need to hold your hand through this?

If you match my hit-rate on baskets plays, you can hold anything of mine you like. Until that happens, stick to math.

[TPowell]

Justin, how much math can one use in NCAAB now? Totals are basically a thing of the past with limits and late releases. Teasers and pleasers aren't good plays IMO. Outside of sides, there isn't a lot ot bet on which is a shame IMO

[Justin7]

Justin, how much math can one use in NCAAB now? Totals are basically a thing of the past with limits and late releases. Teasers and pleasers aren't good plays IMO. Outside of sides, there isn't a lot ot bet on which is a shame IMO

The markets in NCAAB are smaller than in beavers. Ergo, they are easier to beat. I ran my beaver model with no tweaks on NCAAB. First pass, with no adjustments, I found some small advantages betting 100% of the MLs (on a 3000 game season). Make no mistakes about this. NCAAB is perhaps the easiest sport for modelers to beat.