Rate the books in order of sharpness of lines

[bigboydan]

Here is the way I rank them

TheGreek
Pinnacle
Bookmaker
Jazz
Grande

Whats your top 5 ?

[queensryche]

pinnacle
matchbook

no other book really matter because of the state of the industry right now and because it's impossible to find middles with all the clone lines

[Wyndham]

I don't think they accept U.S. bettors, but if you're able to access it, you'd be a moron not to use www.Ladbrokes.com. Their lines -- NBA lines, at least -- simply don't update, even if the spread changes by 2+ points everywhere else.

[pico]

I don't think they accept U.S. bettors, but if you're able to access it, you'd be a moron not to use www.Ladbrokes.com. Their lines -- NBA lines, at least -- simply don't update, even if the spread changes by 2+ points everywhere else.

ladbrokes has similar approach as matchbook. they don't update their spreds, but they usually adjust the odds accordingly. their vig is already pretty high to start with for american sports. if you see one or two stale lines, double pop that if you can.

[Ganchrow]

ladbrokes has similar approach as matchbook. they don't update their spreds, but they usually adjust the odds accordingly. their vig is already pretty high to start with for american sports.

Adjusting payout odds rather than the spread/total figure while still holding to a fixed market width (in the case of Ladbrokes I believe it's 20¢) results in lower juice compared to a book (with the same width markets) that holds its payout odds constant but adjusts its spread/total.

[pico]

Friday 22nd of February, 2008


Miami Heat at Houston Rockets
20/23 Miami Heat +10.5 20/21 Houston Rockets -10.5 01:05 »More bets.... All bets Match betting including OT Handicap betting including OT Total points including OT "

San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves
evens San Antonio Spurs -8.5 5/6 Minnesota Timberwolves +8.5 01:05 »More bets.... All bets Match betting including OT Handicap betting including OT Total points including OT "

Seattle SuperSonics at Portland Trail Blazers
evens Seattle SuperSonics +6.5 5/6 Portland Trail Blazers -6.5 03:35 »More bets.... All bets Match betting including OT Handicap betting including OT Total points including OT "

20/23 = -115
20/21 = -105
5/6 = -120

Thu 2/21 701 San Antonio Spurs -8 +100 -340 OVER 180 -104
05:05 PM 702 Minnesota Timberwolves +8 -110 +310 UNDER 180 -106
Thu 2/21 703 Miami Heat +10 +100 +540 OVER 188.5 -109
05:05 PM 704 Houston Rockets -10 -110 -590 UNDER 188.5 -101
Thu 2/21 705 Seattle Supersonics +7 +104 +277 OVER 191 -110
07:35 PM 706 Portland Trail Blazers -7 -114 -307 UNDER 191 +100


pinnacle: (after point adustment)
Miami Heat +10.5 -109
Houston Rockets -10.5 -101

San Antonio Spurs -8.5 +109
Minnesota Timberwolves +8.5 -120

Seattle SuperSonics +6.5 +111
Portland Trail Blazers -6.5 -123

looks like tonight i should bet on portland...see if it pans out

[BigBollocks]

Dan I agree 100% that TheGreek has taken over as the sharpest book, and that the "Spiro lean" is to some degree what the "Pinnacle lean" was/is. Pinnacle is still right up there, and is not far behind theGreek imo. Matchbook's market makers usually cut the difference in the lines set by those, and will quickly readjust to moves by theGreek and Pinnacle (and sometimes Bookmaker). My top five would be:

TheGreek
Pinnacle
Bookmaker
Matchbook
Grande

[raiders72002]

Ganch

Adjusting payout odds rather than the spread/total figure while still holding to a fixed market width (in the case of Ladbrokes I believe it's 20¢) results in lower juice compared to a book (with the same width markets) that holds its payout odds constant but adjusts its spread/total.

Ganch- You're getting lazy. Where's the math? Just lower juice. You 're starting to talk like me.

Show them hold percentages and just don't say less juice.

It's really similar to guys THINKING the book is raking them over the coals if they were to see a line of -800/+700.

[HedgeHog]

Call me naive, but Cris/Book comes out first. I give them the slight edge.

[pico]

Adjusting payout odds rather than the spread/total figure while still holding to a fixed market width (in the case of Ladbrokes I believe it's 20¢) results in lower juice compared to a book (with the same width markets) that holds its payout odds constant but adjusts its spread/total.

with your logic, ML bets might have lower juice than spreads?

[durito]

with your logic, ML bets might have lower juice than spreads?

It's not his logic. The books hold is what it is.

If you ask here which bet has more juice:

-110 (-110/-110 line set)

or

-1400 (-1400/1100 line set)

I'm sure most people here will say -1400, but second set actually has a much smaller theoretical hold (1.6% to 4.5% for the -110/-110).

See:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/12142-introduction-expectations-theoretical-hold.html?slf=67

[THE HITMAN]

When I was with them, I always thought Pinny was the sharpest..................now, I dont have any "scientific" studies, but I am just basing it on the fact that I usaully do pretty good and definitely have more withdrawals than re-ups. It was just harder for me to keep $ in Pinny than any other.

[rjp]

Just look at the limits. That's your answer. Pinny is missing out on the huge US market, but after them you've got CRIS. For what I want to bet I can typically get a better price at CRIS than I can at Olympic, and I imagine that's because they are maximizing their profit.

[bigboydan]

Dan I agree 100% that TheGreek has taken over as the sharpest book, and that the "Spiro lean" is to some degree what the "Pinnacle lean" was/is.

I'm glad to see that I'm not the only one that noticed that BB.

[Ganchrow]

Ganch- You're getting lazy. Where's the math? Just lower juice. You 're starting to talk like me.

Show them hold percentages and just don't say less juice.

I had thought it was considerably too trivial a matter with which to bother. Nevertheless, since I'm bored, drunk, and not quite ready for bed ...
<hr>
Let F = US fave odds < -100
Let D = US-style dog odds ≥ +100
Let W = US-style market width > 0
Let M = decimal-style fave odds
Let N = decimal-style dogs odds
Let H = theoretical hold (juice) > 0 (as long as W > 0)

Goal is to show:
^∂H/_∂D < 0

1. By the definition of US-style market width:
   F+D = -W
   F = - (D+W)
   D = - (F+W)
2. By the definition of definition of decimal odds:
   M = 1 - 100/F
   N = 1 + D/100
3. By the definition of definition of theoretical hold:
   H = 1 - NM / (N+M)
4. Combining (2) & (3):
   H = 100*(D+F)/(DF+200F-10000)
5. Combining (1) & (4)
   H = 100W/(D²+WD+200D+200W+10000)
6. Taking the partial of (5) wrt D gives us:
   ^∂H/_∂D = (-100*W*(200 + 2*D + W))/(10000 + 200*D + D² + 200*W + D*W)²
7. As the denominator of (6) is strictly positive, the partial derivative will be negative iff:
   -100*W*(200 + 2*D + W) < 0
   W*(200 + 2D +W) > 0
   
   which will always be true as by definition W, D > 0.

Hence, holding US market width constant, theoretical hold (juice) always decreases as line magnitude increases.

QED

Expanding the proof to include F ≤ D < -100 is left as a similarly trivial exercise for the drunk and bored reader.