Brock this might be your only chance

rm18 · 10-26-10, 02:00 PM

Originally posted by tony_come

Rudy, you cant tell me JM beating VT is bigger than Appst over mich

Where would you rank Latech if they beat Boise this week?

Virginia Tech was favored by more points, Appst. was two time defending champions who were not used to losing, much better team than JMU

RudyRuetigger · 10-26-10, 02:03 PM

Originally posted by tony_come

Rudy, you cant tell me JM beating VT is bigger than Appst over mich

Where would you rank Latech if they beat Boise this week?

In my opinion that would be James Madison over Va Tech. 31pt spread.

Stanford was +41
Syracuse was +36.5
App St. wouldve been +22, +23

Again: I went by most recent as the question was worded

RudyRuetigger · 10-26-10, 02:04 PM

Originally posted by tony_come

pts spread means nothing regarding to upsets, just my opinion

we can agree to disagree on that note

Gl tonight

RudyRuetigger · 10-26-10, 02:06 PM

And to answer your question, if La Tech won tonight, it'd be top 5 upset of all time.. in my opinion

tony_come · 10-26-10, 02:08 PM

rm18, you have a point there, just how you look at it. No different than who teams should play in the BCS championship game.

if latech beat boise st where would this rank? Base on your pts spread theory?

Rio DiNero · 10-26-10, 02:11 PM

Originally posted by tony_come

Rio did I reward a pt for playing?

tony_come · 10-26-10, 02:12 PM

You already think latech will beat Boise...you used "won" instead "win"

RudyRuetigger · 10-26-10, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by tony_come

rm18, you have a point there, just how you look at it. No different than who teams should play in the BCS championship game.

if latech beat boise st where would this rank? Base on your pts spread theory?

anywhere from 2-4th, but I'd put it 2nd all time behind stanford

as of right now:

stanford +41 over usc
oregon st +37 over washington
syrcause +37 over louisville
temple +36 over va tech

RudyRuetigger · 10-26-10, 02:15 PM

Originally posted by tony_come

You already think latech will beat Boise...you used "won" instead "win"

no, you said assume they win.. so i used won

rm18 · 10-26-10, 02:16 PM

spread wise would be top 5 in CFB, but I would not rank it quite that high when Louisiana Tech was so closeto beating them last year.

tony_come · 10-26-10, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

And to answer your question, if La Tech won tonight, it'd be top 5 upset of all time.. in my opinion

GL pal

I will be cheering you on

rm18 · 10-26-10, 02:23 PM

SBR put a ML up for Louisisiana Tech

harlee71 · 10-26-10, 02:32 PM

I put $5 on it at 5dimes

Just in case Rudy is right again! Not gonna miss out! LOL

Brock Landers · 10-26-10, 02:37 PM

Rudy, i am passing on this, considering at the SBR book there is no ML.

RudyRuetigger · 10-26-10, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by Brock Landers

Rudy, i am passing on this, considering at the SBR book there is no ML.

brck, you have enough pts for a freeplay, why not buy 1?

ayuntalo · 10-26-10, 03:23 PM

rudy do you really think they will beat boise??

RudyRuetigger · 10-26-10, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by ayuntalo

rudy do you really think they will beat boise??

not sure what you mean.

if i had to pick the top 5 sure ML locks with no consequences this week, boise would be a play.

even with all the juice, do i think there is a better than 100 to 1 chance that la tech wins, yes.

Brock Landers · 10-26-10, 05:22 PM

RUDY, I want 250 in sportsbook cash

montyh · 10-26-10, 05:24 PM

bla bla bla

RudyRuetigger · 10-26-10, 05:24 PM

Originally posted by Brock Landers

RUDY, I want 250 in sportsbook cash

brock no offense pal but if you cant understand that $250 freeplay money in the store is worth a hell of a lot more than $250 cash, you should give up

tony_come · 10-26-10, 05:29 PM

For sure if Latech beat BST, you can write that one of the biggest upsets in american sports

Brock Landers · 10-26-10, 05:30 PM

RUDY, they are totally different things pal

Cougar Bait · 10-26-10, 05:34 PM

Brock how many points are you working with tonight?

RudyRuetigger · 10-26-10, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by Brock Landers

RUDY, they are totally different things pal

brock they are the same, you are wasting a huge amount of points.

make a thread and ask fish

RudyRuetigger · 10-26-10, 05:43 PM

brock a freeplay turned to cash at worst is at 70% value which means 1pt = $0.15667

buying cash it would be 1pt = $0.088684

brock, $250 cash is 2819pts. if youd use that for freeplays itd be $441

rfr3sh · 10-26-10, 05:47 PM

Rudy, I am super frustrated right now
some guy with 16 posts tried to tell me that if you bet a team at +115 and the line closes at +200 the bet is still +EV just less EV then when it was +115
i dont know where to start

RudyRuetigger · 10-26-10, 05:49 PM

Originally posted by rfr3sh

Rudy, I am super frustrated right now
some guy with 16 posts tried to tell me that if you bet a team at +115 and the line closes at +200 the bet is still +EV just less EV then when it was +115
i dont know where to start

assuming the market is efficient..i quit already

assuming the market is inefficient...he must be the best capper ever, to lose to the closing line by 85cents and still turning a profit

NrmlCurvSurfr · 10-26-10, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

brock no offense pal but if you cant understand that $250 freeplay money in the store is worth a hell of a lot more than $250 cash, you should give up

Im not sure about this, but if the (cost of sportsbook cash) < (the cost of freeplay x 2) , wouldn't it be better to get cash? This is based on the fact that you have to make a freeplay wager and win for the freeplay to become cash. If you are hitting 50% and the freeplay was half the cost of the cash, then it would not make a difference. Any thoughts on this?

rfr3sh · 10-26-10, 05:52 PM

I wanted to PM the guy and ask him to book all his bets with me for the rest of the year but I'd get banned LOL

classic post right here

Originally Posted by rfr3sh
if it goes up to +200 your +145 bet is -ev I know line movement doesn't mean much in hockey but that's just basic

rfr3sh, even if he did bet it early it doesn't make it -EV it just makes it less +EV. If he makes them +115 for example they are still +EV whether he bets them at +145 or +200. BUT THAT'S JUST BASICS!!!!!

also LOL at Less +EV

RudyRuetigger · 10-26-10, 06:00 PM

Originally posted by NrmlCurvSurfr

Im not sure about this, but if the (cost of sportsbook cash) < (the cost of freeplay x 2) , wouldn't it be better to get cash? This is based on the fact that you have to make a freeplay wager and win for the freeplay to become cash. If you are hitting 50% and the freeplay was half the cost of the cash, then it would not make a difference. Any thoughts on this?

you can guarantee ~70% of freeplay by doing the 3 team parlays using every combination. that is at its simplest form. books dont like it, but betpho doesnt mind.. esp for someone like brock to try their book. hedging the points out would make the most sense though.

Originally posted by rfr3sh

I wanted to PM the guy and ask him to book all his bets with me for the rest of the year but I'd get banned LOL

classic post right here

also LOL at Less +EV

chico2663 · 10-26-10, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by rm18

Virginia Tech was favored by more points, Appst. was two time defending champions who were not used to losing, much better team than JMU

There was no line on that game. Never line on division 2 going against big boys!

ayuntalo · 10-26-10, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

you can guarantee ~70% of freeplay by doing the 3 team parlays using every combination. that is at its simplest form. books dont like it, but betpho doesnt mind.. esp for someone like brock to try their book. hedging the points out would make the most sense though.:

hmm care to elaborate your free play strat? all i know is hedging on big dogs

RudyRuetigger · 10-26-10, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by chico2663

There was no line on that game. Never line on division 2 going against big boys!

tell that to 5dimes

NrmlCurvSurfr · 10-26-10, 06:06 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

you can guarantee ~70% of freeplay by doing the 3 team parlays using every combination. that is at its simplest form. books dont like it, but betpho doesnt mind.. esp for someone like brock to try their book. hedging the points out would make the most sense though.

AHH, I see

Well then yeah, you have to go with the free play. Nice call. Good stuff going on in this thread.

RudyRuetigger · 10-26-10, 06:07 PM

Originally posted by ayuntalo

hmm care to elaborate your free play strat? all i know is hedging on big dogs

assuming you want to turn your points into cash, you should just be doing that with points and not buying the freeplays at all. there is no rollover and gets them out.

in this scenario, im talking about brock who cant deposit more