Double Digit Dogs in the NFL

[steve18]

Is anyone surprised that 14 point dogs the Browns win, Bills lose by 3 and in week 4 I believe the Lions were 13 point dogs to the Packers and lost by 2?

They are paid to play for a reason I guess. Even on the worst teams.

[daneault23]

I forgot the percentage, but double digit dogs like that cover more times than not. Somehow, I haven't been on any of them this year though.

[SamsNCharge99]

don't take em on the ML

[regretz]

Is anyone surprised that 14 point dogs the Browns win, Bills lose by 3 and in week 4 I believe the Lions were 13 point dogs to the Packers and lost by 2?

They are paid to play for a reason I guess. Even on the worst teams.

DD dogs were killing it also 1 or 2 seasons ago... just as division game underdogs are so far this season...

[Ian]

According to Stanford Wong's book, double digit dogs only beat the juice if they are at home. That book came out in (IIRC) 2000, and supposedly the market has sharpened up since then. I personally don't think betting this angle alone would be a good idea, although I haven't crunched the numbers myself.

[Indecent]

DD dogs were killing it also 1 or 2 seasons ago... just as division game underdogs are so far this season...

Last year dd favs were covering at a pretty ridiculous clip. I'm not sure if it leveled off or not, will run numbers when I get the chance.

[kristianw]

According to Stanford Wong's book, double digit dogs only beat the juice if they are at home. That book came out in (IIRC) 2000, and supposedly the market has sharpened up since then. I personally don't think betting this angle alone would be a good idea, although I haven't crunched the numbers myself.

Helpful thanks

[cappinthepigs]

Exactly right, they are all professionals

[thebestthereis]

spreads are to draw action on both sides of the game as best as possible. it has nothing to do with who will win or lose the games, zero because u cannot. any given sunday, throw the spread out and pick the winner because they mean nothing in the nfl.

[spongerat]

^ this is probably true more than people realize

[GunShard]

With the NFL draft, poor teams can recruit premium players from college football.

The poor teams can build up their teams into a stronger one with the draft which gives them a chance to cover a large spread as their team is stronger than the season before giving a false public perception.

The Browns had a better defense and current runningback Peyton Hillis than the Saints. Since the Saints do not have their main runningbacks playing, Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas. Which made the Browns defense focus on pass blitzing Saints QB Drew Brees.

Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is an average QB that can make plays, most people do not pay attention to poor teams that they did not notice the difference between Bills QB Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick as well as other offensive and defensive players.

[floridagolfer]

Exactly right, they are all professionals

Yes, but that doesn't mean they don't throw in the towel on occasion and simply go through the motions. (See Denver vs. Oakland, Oct. 24, 2010.)

[GoldenYAK]

Lots of injuries this year to star players.