Is this a good play?

jjgold · 10-21-10, 06:53 PM

No

Phils can easily win by 1 run

BAD

ACoochy · 10-21-10, 06:54 PM

Polish middle. Just hope phils dont win by 1.....GL

MartinBlank · 10-21-10, 06:57 PM

I like it.

The way the Phillies happen to play when they are cornered favors you in this spot Pav.

rfr3sh · 10-21-10, 06:58 PM

Total is too low

gryfyn1 · 10-21-10, 07:00 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

1.25 units on Giants ML +115
1 unit on Phillies RL +155

Depends on what you think the odds of the Phils willing by exactly 1 run is.

I think the numbers show that in a game that projected to be a low scoring affair the odds are more than 14%, so its a bad move.

That said, as a one time thing, i understand the thinking, with thier back against the wall, the Phils either come out swing or lay an egg,

ngates815 · 10-21-10, 07:22 PM

nevermind.

MartinBlank · 10-21-10, 10:37 PM

Did you make the play Pav?

Nice play if you did----Jason Werth came through.

pavyracer · 10-21-10, 10:55 PM

I made the play Martin. Was sweating it out before Werth hit the bomb.

Pauulzcappin · 10-21-10, 11:05 PM

nice break you got there

Pauulzcappin · 10-21-10, 11:05 PM

you should learn from justin and mathy though, they had giants +3 +115 and phillies ml +125

$Burm$ · 10-22-10, 07:02 AM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

you should learn from justin and mathy though, they had giants +3 +115 and phillies ml +125

how'd they get those odds?????

Wouldn't Giants +3 be at like -300 something

MartinBlank · 10-22-10, 07:11 AM

Originally posted by $Burm$

how'd they get those odds?????

Wouldn't Giants +3 be at like -300 something

I could be wrong, but I think he meant Giants OVER 3 for the game.

pavyracer · 10-22-10, 08:06 AM

Originally posted by $Burm$

how'd they get those odds?????

Wouldn't Giants +3 be at like -300 something

I think he is being sarcastic. Justin always gets the biggest middles with both plays at plus odds. He just never posts them.

gangeriver · 10-22-10, 08:44 AM

nonsense

pokerpro44 · 10-22-10, 08:58 AM

that was close.good job.

gman2114 · 10-22-10, 09:00 AM

sucker bet

Hoja Verdes · 10-22-10, 09:59 AM

Baseball season is almost over of course, but eventually you'll get burned doing stuff like that. About 5 years ago when I was young and stupid, I thought I'd figured out a 'system' of betting both sides and winning as long as the wrong team didn't win by exactly 1 run. It lasted about 3 weeks and then I lost it all with 2 bad games in a row.

pavyracer · 10-22-10, 10:21 AM

Originally posted by Hoja Verdes

Baseball season is almost over of course, but eventually you'll get burned doing stuff like that. About 5 years ago when I was young and stupid, I thought I'd figured out a 'system' of betting both sides and winning as long as the wrong team didn't win by exactly 1 run. It lasted about 3 weeks and then I lost it all with 2 bad games in a row.

I did it specifically for this game. For me the Phillies were playing their whole season yesterday. They would either win by 2 runs or more or lose outright. Also I bet the road team for the RL because they have to bat 9 innings whereas if the RL was on the home team they may just bat only 8. It gave me 3 more outs which proved to be the difference maker. By no means this is a system.

l7ustin · 10-22-10, 10:28 AM

pavy, on 5dimes (and prob other sites) you can bet on xx team to win by 1 run exactly. usually get odds at like +600 or so. might be something to keep an eye on for a total scalp, not sure if it would ever work out exactly right but if you could get +150 a -1.5 +150 and a win by exactly one run for +600..

hmm.

1 to win 1.50
1 to win 1.50
.30 to win 1.80

seems profitable to me...

pavyracer · 10-22-10, 11:36 AM

OK for today lets try this. Similar scenario as yesterday.

Rangers ML +100 1.25 units
Yankees RL +150 1 unit

Blax0r · 10-22-10, 11:46 AM

I don't really have an opinion, but you'll need to be more than 90% sure that the Yankees will not win by exactly 1 (assuming you're using the 1.5 RL) for this position to be +EV.

mathdotcom · 10-22-10, 11:48 AM

Only way this is +EV is if both lines are off. If one line is off then just bet that one.

Most likely neither line is off.

Pavy don't quit your day job

pavyracer · 10-22-10, 12:37 PM

Originally posted by mathdotcom

Only way this is +EV is if both lines are off. If one line is off then just bet that one.

Most likely neither line is off.

Pavy don't quit your day job

I don't plan to quit my day job. Why would I quit? But you have already quit your day job as a gum factory worker because you already figured out how to make millions gambling, right?

mathdotcom · 10-22-10, 12:46 PM

pavy times were tough a couple years ago

I am now a professional gambler and night club owner

pavy you've been on the forums at least 3-4 years and you honestly mean to tell me you don't know how to beat the game yet?

Sunde91 · 10-22-10, 01:17 PM

These are very sharp plays, Pavy

pavyracer · 10-22-10, 01:20 PM

Originally posted by mathdotcom

pavy times were tough a couple years ago

I am now a professional gambler and night club owner

pavy you've been on the forums at least 3-4 years and you honestly mean to tell me you don't know how to beat the game yet?

Best way to beat the game is to win your bets and cash out before you lose your winnings. I think ...

jjgold · 10-22-10, 02:13 PM

Paver good call although when I do my credit checks for camera jobs I just so happen to run yours , Mathy is right do not quit your day job.

Paver sometimes gambling gets the best of them.

GL

pavyracer · 10-22-10, 10:06 PM

Originally posted by Sunde91

These are very sharp plays, Pavy

OmgUrMom · 10-23-10, 01:02 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Paver good call although when I do my credit checks for camera jobs I just so happen to run yours , Mathy is right do not quit your day job.

Paver sometimes gambling gets the best of them.

GL

pavyracer · 10-23-10, 02:54 PM

Lets try this for one more day since we are 2-0 with this system:

Giants ML +153 for 0.75 units
Phillies RL +150 for 0.75 units

brock · 10-23-10, 03:09 PM

The risk is not worth the reward.

mathdotcom · 10-23-10, 03:23 PM

pavyracer · 10-23-10, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by brock

The risk is not worth the reward.

You live by the sword you die by the sword.

pavyracer · 10-25-10, 11:46 AM

This system is 3-0 so far so I will try to incorporate it with football for the first time!

Giants ML +175 1 unit
Cowboys -3 -120 1.5 units