I need a statistics guy for some help

[dante1]

Hey

If you have some knowledge of stats I need you do do me a favor and give me some rough odds on this problem. I don't believe you will be able to come up with an exact number because I don't know for sure the exact odds of all the horses. Anybody able and willing to help. Thanks


A quarter gambling machine has a game that consists of 6 horses that compete in a race. Each horse has odds something like this. 2 to 1, 3 to 1, 5 to 1, 10 to 1, 12 to 1 and 20 to 1. You choose a horse and bet a quarter on that horse and start the race. If your horse wins and you picked the 5 to 1 horse that is the payout you get in quarters. You can bet on as many horses as you like.

Okay, here is the problem. What are the chances of this happening, And to be more than fair I am not even going to use the 20 to 1 horse.

First event I play every horse in the race but the 2 to 1 horse and the 2 to 1 horse wins I lose.

Second event, I play every horse in the race but the 3 to 1 horse and the 3 to 1 horse wins, I lose

Third event, I play every horse in the race but the 4 to 1 horse and the 4 to 1 horse wins, I lose

Fourth event, I play ever horse in the race but the 5 to 1 horse and the 5 to 1 horse wins, I lose

Fifth event, I play every horse in the race but the 10 to 1 horse and the 10 to 1 horse wins, I lose

Sixth event, I play every horse in the race but the 12 to 1 horse and the 12 to 1 horse wins, I lose


I imagine this will take some calculations to do but if I had to guess the odds of this happening 6 times is greater than a million to one. Maybe, I am wrong. Can you help.

Thanks, I believe I gave enough info

[dante1]

I believe the chance of this happening if all the horses were even money 1 to 1 is about 46,000 to one. Is that in the ball park?

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

yeah...if-you-dont-factor-in-the-odds-on-the-horse-it's-
like-one-in-fourtythreethousand.

[dante1]

yeah...if-you-dont-factor-in-the-odds-on-the-horse-it's-
like-one-in-fourtythreethousand.

Yeah, thanks I can do that easy stat stuff but throwing in the odds, nope can't do it

Some jack ass told me that this experiment was not valid for attempting to claim the machine was fixed.
I told him he didn't understand the experiment or he has very few brain cells. Because without the odds we are talking about one chance in 43,000 of this happening. So I would wager that the machine is fixed. Because this experiment actually happened. I was attempting to prove that the machine was fixed. People were tossing their entire check in this machine and I supervised this experiment. I think this proved beyond a question that this machine was fixed.

Don't you agree?

[sharpcat]

2-1=33.3/66.7
3-1=25/75
4-1=20/80
5-1=16.67/83.33
10-1=9.09/90.91
12-1=7.69/92.31
20-1=4.76/95.34




If there are 6 horses at
2-1
3-1
5-1
10-1
12-1
20-1
it would make sense for the casino to cheat if you were to play 5 out of 6 horses considering that the implied win% for all horses combined equals 96.51% the player would have an edge by simply betting all 6 horses over and over until he put the casino out of business.

with the 7 horse option which would include the 4-1 horse the book would have a theoretical hold of 14.2% which should be more than enough to not give them any reason to have to cheat.

It is important that you know the true odds offered for each horse and how many horses, as stated above in the 6 horse example a player would gain a huge edge by hedge betting which would only make sense in that case that the casino would alter the odds dependent on how many horses you bet on unless they were looking to give money away.


And as for the validity of your experiment yes the odds are very slim of this occurrence and one could assume that the machine is rigged but again as I told you before 6 samples is not enough to prove "without a question that the machine is rigged" 6 samples is not a large enough sample to establish confidence.

More importantly I was not so much arguing that your test did not prove that this machine was rigged, I was arguing that your test in no way proves your claim that all online casinos are rigged. Your 6 sample test on a quarter machine in practically no manner correlates to online gaming software.

1) different establishments/owners
2) mechanical machine vs. RNG software
3) .25 cent game compared to 500.00 dollar game
4) arcade game vs. certified and monitored gaming software.

[dante1]

2-1=33.3/66.7
3-1=25/75
4-1=20/80
5-1=16.67/83.33
10-1=9.09/90.91
12-1=7.69/92.31
20-1=4.76/95.34




If there are 6 horses at
2-1
3-1
5-1
10-1
12-1
20-1
it would make sense for the casino to cheat if you were to play 5 out of 6 horses considering that the implied win% for all horses combined equals 96.51% the player would have an edge by simply betting all 6 horses over and over until he put the casino out of business.

with the 7 horse option which would include the 4-1 horse the book would have a theoretical hold of 14.2% which should be more than enough to not give them any reason to have to cheat.

It is important that you know the true odds offered for each horse and how many horses, as stated above in the 6 horse example a player would gain a huge edge by hedge betting which would only make sense in that case that the casino would alter the odds dependent on how many horses you bet on unless they were looking to give money away.


And as for the validity of your experiment yes the odds are very slim of this occurrence and one could assume that the machine is rigged but again as I told you before 6 samples is not enough to prove "without a question that the machine is rigged" 6 samples is not a large enough sample to establish confidence.

More importantly I was not so much arguing that your test did not prove that this machine was rigged, I was arguing that your test in no way proves your claim that all online casinos are rigged. Your 6 sample test on a quarter machine in practically no manner correlates to online gaming software.

1) different establishments/owners
2) mechanical machine vs. RNG software
3) .25 cent game compared to 500.00 dollar game
4) arcade game vs. certified and monitored gaming software.

Fair enough

A little bit of background here. I play video poker for $1 in AC and I feel they are honest machines. In fact, I believe I am up over the years. Many stays I will hit 3 or 4 jp before leaving. Of course, I play 8 to 10 hours a day for 2 or 3 days. I have had some very huge wins. And I have had some very huge losses.

But, concerning that machine I am talking about. I have seen, and this was many many years ago people put their entire checks and never win. I have never seen a jp hit on that machine. And I worked there for a long time. I attempted to convince the people that it was fixed that is the reason I decided to do that experiment. So yes, it doesn't prove that all machines are fixed. But, sir it does prove that that machine almost beyond a doubt was fixed. Thus, it proves that machines can be rigged. That I think is a fact.

I don't know how old you are but did you see on the discovery channel or science or one of those about the fixed slot machines in Vegas.? It did happen. Those machines can be rigged. I think to believe that unregulated slot and video machines aren't rigged is believing way too much. If the machines can be rigged to never or seldom pay out the casino can make close to 100% vs 2 or 4%. The temptation must be too great, I would think. This plus the fact that very few people on this site ever mention hitting big on unregulated internet casinos. I know that is only circumstantial proof but it is that. I have won at regulated casinos many times, AC and bet365, I have never won substantially on any unregulated internet casino.

[sharpcat]

I agree that particular machine was likely rigged and I have heard stories of slots in vegas being rigged and would not be surprised if online casinos at some of these smaller shops who run independent software were rigged.

I would not play in any online casino period but if I did I would stick with one of the larger books who are trustworthy, books are guaranteed to win money from them there is no reason to cheat since they are already earning $5 for every $100 bet. Most of the top books use the same software that SBR uses and for that reason alone I would trust that Bookmaker or 5dimes and books on that level do not all agree to cheat their customers and I am sure the software provider would not allow them access to alter the odds because that would reflect badly on the provider.

There was actually a lengthy thread here a few months ago about a guy who won $65,000 playing in Betonline's casino and has verified receiving payment so it does happen just not very often. Turns out the payment comes from the software provider and not Betonline.

[dante1]

I agree that particular machine was likely rigged and I have heard stories of slots in vegas being rigged and would not be surprised if online casinos at some of these smaller shops who run independent software were rigged.

I would not play in any online casino period but if I did I would stick with one of the larger books who are trustworthy, books are guaranteed to win money from them there is no reason to cheat since they are already earning $5 for every $100 bet. Most of the top books use the same software that SBR uses and for that reason alone I would trust that Bookmaker or 5dimes and books on that level do not all agree to cheat their customers and I am sure the software provider would not allow them access to alter the odds because that would reflect badly on the provider.

There was actually a lengthy thread here a few months ago about a guy who won $65,000 playing in Betonline's casino and has verified receiving payment so it does happen just not very often. Turns out the payment comes from the software provider and not Betonline.

Well that is interesting and I do know that it makes sense and I have thought about all those same arguments myself. I too don't believe that it makes a ton of sense for these big shops to cheat. Just because as you said they can get their small cut and keep people coming. Makes sense, I know this. I know real casinos don't have to cheat and they don't want to cheat. But, knowing all this and saying it too I still must wonder if a casino owned by one person or maybe a partnership might be tempted, even if that casino or book is large.I don't think rigging the software would be a huge obstacle but I may be wrong.

Listen, I am not a person that believes in this fixed stuff and conspiracy stuff but with this issue I just don't know. Bottom line, if not regulated I have trouble trusting them. I will play it safe and not play at these places until I am sure. Oh, I might try 50 or 100 bucks once in a while and I expect to lose. But, playing 50 or 100 at AC I would probably lose too. Sometimes, I would go through many thousands before I won, and then sometimes I wouldn't win at all. But, at least I know I have a decent chance on a machine that pays the right odds, that will definitely pay the jp, and if I play perfect poker I can shorten the odds against me.

You must admit we have thousands of players on this site and many of them play the casinos. Not too many are bragging about winning. And you do know gamblers have a propensity to exaggerate wins more than losses.And I just don't see it, do you?

One last question and I hope I don't insult you. Do you have any connection in any way with online books or casinos, as a owner, associate, or any way at all?

[sharpcat]

Well that is interesting and I do know that it makes sense and I have thought about all those same arguments myself. I too don't believe that it makes a ton of sense for these big shops to cheat. Just because as you said they can get their small cut and keep people coming. Makes sense, I know this. I know real casinos don't have to cheat and they don't want to cheat. But, knowing all this and saying it too I still must wonder if a casino owned by one person or maybe a partnership might be tempted, even if that casino or book is large.I don't think rigging the software would be a huge obstacle but I may be wrong.

Listen, I am not a person that believes in this fixed stuff and conspiracy stuff but with this issue I just don't know. Bottom line, if not regulated I have trouble trusting them. I will play it safe and not play at these places until I am sure. Oh, I might try 50 or 100 bucks once in a while and I expect to lose. But, playing 50 or 100 at AC I would probably lose too. Sometimes, I would go through many thousands before I won, and then sometimes I wouldn't win at all. But, at least I know I have a decent chance on a machine that pays the right odds, that will definitely pay the jp, and if I play perfect poker I can shorten the odds against me.

You must admit we have thousands of players on this site and many of them play the casinos. Not too many are bragging about winning. And you do know gamblers have a propensity to exaggerate wins more than losses.And I just don't see it, do you?

One last question and I hope I don't insult you. Do you have any connection in any way with online books or casinos, as a owner, associate, or any way at all?

I would like to think most of these casinos would not cheat but I still refuse to play any game that they have a possibility of cheating at.

I refuse to play online poker not because I think the books would cheat but because I know that players cheat with correlated play and the books can not monitor it 100%, I do not care to play against 3 guys who are chatting on the phone because I know my odds suck playing against 3 hands.

I have no affiliation with any books aside from being a player I have money spread out through several books and from my experience I do not think any of the books I am with have any intent to cheat players because they do not have to they get incredible odds on every bet they take and have no reason to cheat.

I just hate to see guys get upset because they can not beat a game that they are mathematically guaranteed to not be able to beat. When you catch a bad run it sure can feel like you are getting screwed but it is likely just variance, guys just seem to notice the bad beats more than the hot streaks (which will happen because you will have more losses than wins in a casino).

[dante1]

Right

And I have no illusions about books cheating in any forum except the casino. No, if they do cheat it would only be in the casino. At least the huge majority of them. We won't count on BETUS or ESB, I don't think they are even around anymore. That was my first place, before the net. Only phone, they charged $100 something just to join. lol

Good talking to you