NFL Betting: Eagles at San Francisco 49ers
NBC's Sunday Night Football broadcast will likely spend as much time focusing on a quarterback not playing as it does the two signal callers who are on the field in San Francisco where the 49ers host the Philadelphia Eagles. An injury in last week's loss to the Redskins has Michael Vick sitting this one out. Meanwhile Alex Smith and the Niners will be looking to pick up their first dubya of the 2010 campaign.
Kevin Kolb or Alex Smith?
That’s not the only choice NFL handicappers have to make this Sunday night. But it is the most important choice when the Philadelphia Eagles (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) visit the San Francisco 49ers (0-4 SU, 2-2 ATS).
Michael Vick has officially been ruled out for this Sunday Night Football matchup (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC) with damaged rib cartilage, giving Kolb another crack at starting for the Eagles. The football betting market must not think very highly of Kolb (five TD, eight INT lifetime) to make winless San Francisco a 3-point chalk.
That doesn’t mean bettors are very high on Smith (three TD, seven INT this year). The former first overall pick in 2005 has been inconsistent ever since joining the league, which can be blamed partly on the revolving door of coaches and co-ordinators on the San Fran sideline. Mike Johnson is Smith’s latest offensive co-ordinator after taking over last week for Jimmy Raye. The Niners go into Week 5 with the No. 30-ranked offense in the league according to the efficiency stats at Football Outsiders.
There is one saving grace for the San Francisco offense: Frank Gore. He leads the NFL with 533 yards from scrimmage: 270 yards rushing and 263 yards passing. But this split speaks volumes for what’s wrong with the Niners. Gore is only getting 3.7 yards per carry; going back to Football Outsiders, Gore ranks No. 23 at his position with 14 DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) on the ground. Through the air, Gore ranks No. 4 among tailbacks with 43 DYAR.
The problem here is that Gore has become Smith’s favorite receiver, leading the team with 29 catches and 37 targets. Smith clearly has no faith going downfield to Michael Crabtree (11 catches on 25 targets), but Johnson made sure Crabtree got his touches last week against the Atlanta Falcons: five catches on six targets for a total of 58 yards. The Niners had the game won before coughing up the ball late and allowing the Falcons (-7 at home) to kick the winning field goal in a 16-14 final.
At least they’re improving. It’s hard to say the same thing about the Eagles after their 17-12 loss to the Washington Redskins (+5 on the road). Kolb came into that game early for the injured Vick and spent most of the day checking down to his running back, LeSean McCoy (12 catches on 14 targets, plus 64 yards rushing on 16 carries). This was despite Washington possessing one of the weakest pass defenses in the league at No. 28 in efficiency. The Niners aren’t much better at No. 25.
Kolb might have an easier time getting the ball downfield if Philadelphia had any semblance of an offensive line. This has been an absolute gong show for the Eagles; they’ve allowed 16 sacks, more than everyone but the Chicago Bears with 18. Kolb suffered a concussion in Week 1 against the Green Bay Packers after getting flattened by Clay Matthews, which is how he lost his starting job in the first place.
The Eagles aren’t going to solve this problem anytime soon. Besides Kolb, they also lost center Jamaal Jackson (torn triceps) and fullback Leonard Weaver (torn ACL and PCL) for the season in Week 1. The Eagles line is already weaker at right guard after trading 6-foot-7, 340-pound behemoth Stacy Andrews to the Seattle Seahawks last month, replacing him with back-up center Nick Cole (6-foot, 350 pounds). He’s been playing on a swollen knee and is officially listed as questionable for Week 5, although it’s expected Cole will suit up against the Niners after practicing Friday.
Putting these two “offenses” in the same game gives us a total of 38 points on the NFL betting odds board. The 'under' is 3-1 for Philly this year, but just 1-2-1 for the Niners because of their shaky pass defense. Consensus reports at press time have the 'over' pulling in nearly 80 percent support, with bettors split 55-45 in favor of San Francisco on the pointspread. It’s going to be a beautiful warm October evening at Candlestick Park. The matchup itself, on the other hand, looks ugly as sin.
NBC's Sunday Night Football broadcast will likely spend as much time focusing on a quarterback not playing as it does the two signal callers who are on the field in San Francisco where the 49ers host the Philadelphia Eagles. An injury in last week's loss to the Redskins has Michael Vick sitting this one out. Meanwhile Alex Smith and the Niners will be looking to pick up their first dubya of the 2010 campaign.
Kevin Kolb or Alex Smith?
That’s not the only choice NFL handicappers have to make this Sunday night. But it is the most important choice when the Philadelphia Eagles (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) visit the San Francisco 49ers (0-4 SU, 2-2 ATS).
Michael Vick has officially been ruled out for this Sunday Night Football matchup (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC) with damaged rib cartilage, giving Kolb another crack at starting for the Eagles. The football betting market must not think very highly of Kolb (five TD, eight INT lifetime) to make winless San Francisco a 3-point chalk.
That doesn’t mean bettors are very high on Smith (three TD, seven INT this year). The former first overall pick in 2005 has been inconsistent ever since joining the league, which can be blamed partly on the revolving door of coaches and co-ordinators on the San Fran sideline. Mike Johnson is Smith’s latest offensive co-ordinator after taking over last week for Jimmy Raye. The Niners go into Week 5 with the No. 30-ranked offense in the league according to the efficiency stats at Football Outsiders.
There is one saving grace for the San Francisco offense: Frank Gore. He leads the NFL with 533 yards from scrimmage: 270 yards rushing and 263 yards passing. But this split speaks volumes for what’s wrong with the Niners. Gore is only getting 3.7 yards per carry; going back to Football Outsiders, Gore ranks No. 23 at his position with 14 DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) on the ground. Through the air, Gore ranks No. 4 among tailbacks with 43 DYAR.
The problem here is that Gore has become Smith’s favorite receiver, leading the team with 29 catches and 37 targets. Smith clearly has no faith going downfield to Michael Crabtree (11 catches on 25 targets), but Johnson made sure Crabtree got his touches last week against the Atlanta Falcons: five catches on six targets for a total of 58 yards. The Niners had the game won before coughing up the ball late and allowing the Falcons (-7 at home) to kick the winning field goal in a 16-14 final.
At least they’re improving. It’s hard to say the same thing about the Eagles after their 17-12 loss to the Washington Redskins (+5 on the road). Kolb came into that game early for the injured Vick and spent most of the day checking down to his running back, LeSean McCoy (12 catches on 14 targets, plus 64 yards rushing on 16 carries). This was despite Washington possessing one of the weakest pass defenses in the league at No. 28 in efficiency. The Niners aren’t much better at No. 25.
Kolb might have an easier time getting the ball downfield if Philadelphia had any semblance of an offensive line. This has been an absolute gong show for the Eagles; they’ve allowed 16 sacks, more than everyone but the Chicago Bears with 18. Kolb suffered a concussion in Week 1 against the Green Bay Packers after getting flattened by Clay Matthews, which is how he lost his starting job in the first place.
The Eagles aren’t going to solve this problem anytime soon. Besides Kolb, they also lost center Jamaal Jackson (torn triceps) and fullback Leonard Weaver (torn ACL and PCL) for the season in Week 1. The Eagles line is already weaker at right guard after trading 6-foot-7, 340-pound behemoth Stacy Andrews to the Seattle Seahawks last month, replacing him with back-up center Nick Cole (6-foot, 350 pounds). He’s been playing on a swollen knee and is officially listed as questionable for Week 5, although it’s expected Cole will suit up against the Niners after practicing Friday.
Putting these two “offenses” in the same game gives us a total of 38 points on the NFL betting odds board. The 'under' is 3-1 for Philly this year, but just 1-2-1 for the Niners because of their shaky pass defense. Consensus reports at press time have the 'over' pulling in nearly 80 percent support, with bettors split 55-45 in favor of San Francisco on the pointspread. It’s going to be a beautiful warm October evening at Candlestick Park. The matchup itself, on the other hand, looks ugly as sin.