NFL Is Basically Impossible To Predict Now

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  • SaviorTebow
    SBR High Roller
    • 07-20-10
    • 219

    #36
    Lines are too sharp to make $$$ betting NFL.

    College Football, Basketball, and NASCAR (cue the jokes) are where its at.
    Comment
    • yisman
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 09-01-08
      • 75682

      #37
      I respectfully disagree, jj.
      [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
      [/quote]

      [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
      Comment
      • GunShard
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 03-05-10
        • 10033

        #38
        Originally posted by B1GER1C828
        have to disagree...im having a great nfl year. only bad week was 2nd week.
        Week 2 was difficult for me.

        Also, I noticed that the Redskins, Jags, Jets, Seahawks and 49ers are the hardest to cap.
        Comment
        • Ian
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 11-09-09
          • 6120

          #39
          NFL has never been easy money... at least as long as I've been gambling. You're talking about a sport where a longterm 60% winrate is borderline unattainable. The smaller market stuff is where it's at... and even then the edge there is nowhere close to what it is for a good poker player sitting in a soft game.
          Comment
          • Dark Horse
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 12-14-05
            • 13764

            #40
            Lot of people on this forum having a good year.



            With 64% ATS over 48 picks I'm not even in the top 20.
            Comment
            • jjgold
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 07-20-05
              • 388208

              #41
              Darker contest standings are not the same as actually betting real money, huge difference.

              Injuries also whether reported or unreported are making it tough
              Comment
              • Dark Horse
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 12-14-05
                • 13764

                #42
                They're not the same, but they give a good idea about the grip that people have over a season.
                Comment
                • venice2222
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 06-04-10
                  • 414

                  #43
                  Too much parity in NFL, but I've been doing well on college games.
                  Comment
                  • adlai
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 03-11-10
                    • 778

                    #44
                    huh... i'm 5-1 to start the season. just pick your wagers wisely. had jacksonville and carolina spreads yesterday.
                    Comment
                    • k13
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 07-16-10
                      • 18130

                      #45
                      Originally posted by jjgold
                      Darker contest standings are not the same as actually betting real money, huge difference.

                      Injuries also whether reported or unreported are making it tough
                      All overall standings are negative units and are below or around 50%.

                      Which means its obviously tough for majority of people, contest or not.
                      Comment
                      • Duby
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-26-09
                        • 3608

                        #46
                        I keep winning Saturday and losing it right back on Sunday!
                        Comment
                        • Dark Horse
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 12-14-05
                          • 13764

                          #47
                          Originally posted by k13
                          All overall standings are negative units and are below or around 50%.

                          Which means its obviously tough for majority of people, contest or not.
                          The majority of people are not going to make money in sports betting. That has nothing to do with the present season or sport.
                          Comment
                          • LT Profits
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 10-27-06
                            • 90963

                            #48
                            I actually think this has been the easiest NFL season to predict in a long time. That could change on a dime though if favorites start covering more.
                            Comment
                            • k13
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 07-16-10
                              • 18130

                              #49
                              Originally posted by Dark Horse
                              The majority of people are not going to make money in sports betting. That has nothing to do with the present season or sport.

                              Well yeah, juice and Money Management will kill most in the long run.
                              Comment
                              • jbrent95
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-07-09
                                • 1221

                                #50
                                Parity certainly makes capping difficult. I've been. taking more dogs of late.
                                Comment
                                • LT Profits
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 10-27-06
                                  • 90963

                                  #51
                                  Originally posted by Duby
                                  I keep winning Saturday and losing it right back on Sunday!
                                  Just the opposite this week for me, I got killed on Saturday.

                                  But I won in both CFB and NFL every week before this one, so can't complain.
                                  Comment
                                  • WeinketoWarrick
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 05-30-09
                                    • 1698

                                    #52
                                    Originally posted by venice2222
                                    Too much parity in NFL, but I've been doing well on college games.
                                    yeah i've had five profitable weeks of college. way easier to make money with so many more games.
                                    Comment
                                    • LT Profits
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 10-27-06
                                      • 90963

                                      #53
                                      Originally posted by jbrent95
                                      Parity certainly makes capping difficult. I've been. taking more dogs of late.
                                      No, it makes it easier because dogs cover more. The proportion of dogs covering when there is parity is actually higher than the proportion if favorites covering when there is no parity, so in that sense, parity is good for gamblers.
                                      Comment
                                      • babyanni
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 09-23-09
                                        • 1780

                                        #54
                                        Best for me to stick to cfb where there is still Talent edge. NFL teams are to close talent wise and its about matchups and schemes hard to break down. Cfb has been good to me first 4 weeks Nfl im up $200 bucks after a shit sunday one or two more like yesterday may be just cfb.
                                        Comment
                                        • k13
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 07-16-10
                                          • 18130

                                          #55
                                          Next week will be a little tougher, very unbalanced, teams coming off byes. Public will be split and confused on a lot of games.

                                          Only a few jump out at me so far.
                                          Comment
                                          • Skidcom
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 11-17-06
                                            • 1796

                                            #56
                                            Season is too long. Never know when a team is going to take a break and ease back a bit
                                            Comment
                                            • MTek
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 11-18-08
                                              • 1381

                                              #57
                                              I've heard a stat....83% of all games are not effected by the spread...basically you pick the right team and you win the bet.
                                              The difference between betting NFL, against college football is the NFL are Pro's, they do this for a living, they have unlimited time in their week to fix problems and make adjustments, so it's harder to base wagers on "who's hot/who's better" in the NFL

                                              How many times have we seen a 6th round receiver out muscle a 1st round corner? Or a back-up quaterback light up a top ranked defense? Their all professional therfore making it impossible to gauge week by week whos' BETTER
                                              Comment
                                              • Ca$hfloW
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 10-16-09
                                                • 1196

                                                #58
                                                Originally posted by Duby
                                                I keep winning Saturday and losing it right back on Sunday!
                                                You have plus units for NFL and minus units in college
                                                Comment
                                                • CHAZ
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-09-09
                                                  • 4978

                                                  #59
                                                  My best week yet in the NFL.

                                                  As the season goes on it makes it easier to handicap in my opinion. The first few weeks are the hardest because you have nothing to come by except for last years stats and outcomes.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • unusialsusp5
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 04-18-10
                                                    • 4199

                                                    #60
                                                    clods that subtract on teasers are doomed to failure. whoever sticks to 2 team dog teasers can at least survive. but you have to take a stand on a dog bet parlay or flat to make a decent attempt to win some money here and there. it's all about not pressing when you're down and maximizing your winners. money management and limited selection. also don't have a favorite team that you always play. yes injuries and refs are making the nfl a crap shoot. continue to search for dogs that you think can win outright. tread carefully in the college nonsense. bad defenses and turnovers are too prevalent.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • slacker00
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 10-06-05
                                                      • 12262

                                                      #61
                                                      I need to improve my ability to predict when a starting QB will get knocked out of the game.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • pavyracer
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 04-12-07
                                                        • 82667

                                                        #62
                                                        Originally posted by slacker00
                                                        I need to improve my ability to predict when a starting QB will get knocked out of the game.
                                                        Need to cap offensive lines.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • yisman
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 09-01-08
                                                          • 75682

                                                          #63
                                                          Originally posted by jjgold
                                                          Darker contest standings are not the same as actually betting real money, huge difference.
                                                          I bet real money on almost all my contest picks, jj.
                                                          [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                                          [/quote]

                                                          [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                                          Comment
                                                          • 22dsnyd22
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 10-26-09
                                                            • 386

                                                            #64
                                                            Definitely Harder this year. Way too much parity............. Last year you could always fade the rams or lions. Defenses werent on the same even playing field like it is this year. Look at all te teams with 2 losses. Great for watching football but awful for trying to make money. Good Thread
                                                            Comment
                                                            • 22dsnyd22
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 10-26-09
                                                              • 386

                                                              #65
                                                              Oh yeah doesnt help that this year Refs are giving teams 150 free years in stupid illegal hit and puzzy azz penalties. You never know what team is going to get these breaks. Hate NFL sometimes
                                                              Comment
                                                              • LT Profits
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 10-27-06
                                                                • 90963

                                                                #66
                                                                Again, why is parity bad? Parity makes it harder to lose if you bet mostly dogs. It really is that simple.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Ratzz
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 07-07-10
                                                                  • 8965

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Originally posted by jjgold
                                                                  Just too many team that are the same, whoever gets the breaks and turnovers wins the cover.

                                                                  Proceed with caution
                                                                  very tricky... excellent observation..

                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • mdemps9190
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 11-08-07
                                                                    • 1957

                                                                    #68
                                                                    Follow me JJ...Been tearing it up in NFL, and recently got back on the horse with a huge 10 unit play on Notre Dame Saturday
                                                                    Comment
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