NFL Is Basically Impossible To Predict Now

SaviorTebow · 10-04-10, 12:01 AM

Lines are too sharp to make $$$ betting NFL.

College Football, Basketball, and NASCAR (cue the jokes) are where its at.

yisman · 10-04-10, 01:31 AM

I respectfully disagree, jj.

GunShard · 10-04-10, 02:05 AM

Originally posted by B1GER1C828

have to disagree...im having a great nfl year. only bad week was 2nd week.

Week 2 was difficult for me.

Also, I noticed that the Redskins, Jags, Jets, Seahawks and 49ers are the hardest to cap.

Ian · 10-04-10, 02:53 AM

NFL has never been easy money... at least as long as I've been gambling. You're talking about a sport where a longterm 60% winrate is borderline unattainable. The smaller market stuff is where it's at... and even then the edge there is nowhere close to what it is for a good poker player sitting in a soft game.

Dark Horse · 10-04-10, 04:37 AM

Lot of people on this forum having a good year.

http://contests.sbrforum.com/nfl-contest-free-1-000-weekly-prize-contest-1646/standings/

With 64% ATS over 48 picks I'm not even in the top 20.

jjgold · 10-04-10, 04:56 AM

Darker contest standings are not the same as actually betting real money, huge difference.

Injuries also whether reported or unreported are making it tough

Dark Horse · 10-04-10, 05:27 AM

They're not the same, but they give a good idea about the grip that people have over a season.

venice2222 · 10-04-10, 06:12 AM

Too much parity in NFL, but I've been doing well on college games.

adlai · 10-04-10, 06:33 AM

huh... i'm 5-1 to start the season. just pick your wagers wisely. had jacksonville and carolina spreads yesterday.

k13 · 10-04-10, 06:36 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Darker contest standings are not the same as actually betting real money, huge difference.

Injuries also whether reported or unreported are making it tough

All overall standings are negative units and are below or around 50%.

Which means its obviously tough for majority of people, contest or not.

Duby · 10-04-10, 07:06 AM

I keep winning Saturday and losing it right back on Sunday!

Dark Horse · 10-04-10, 07:09 AM

Originally posted by k13

All overall standings are negative units and are below or around 50%.

Which means its obviously tough for majority of people, contest or not.

The majority of people are not going to make money in sports betting. That has nothing to do with the present season or sport.

LT Profits · 10-04-10, 07:14 AM

I actually think this has been the easiest NFL season to predict in a long time. That could change on a dime though if favorites start covering more.

k13 · 10-04-10, 07:14 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

The majority of people are not going to make money in sports betting. That has nothing to do with the present season or sport.

Well yeah, juice and Money Management will kill most in the long run.

jbrent95 · 10-04-10, 07:14 AM

Parity certainly makes capping difficult. I've been. taking more dogs of late.

LT Profits · 10-04-10, 07:16 AM

Originally posted by Duby

I keep winning Saturday and losing it right back on Sunday!

Just the opposite this week for me, I got killed on Saturday.

But I won in both CFB and NFL every week before this one, so can't complain.

WeinketoWarrick · 10-04-10, 07:18 AM

Originally posted by venice2222

Too much parity in NFL, but I've been doing well on college games.

yeah i've had five profitable weeks of college. way easier to make money with so many more games.

LT Profits · 10-04-10, 07:18 AM

Originally posted by jbrent95

Parity certainly makes capping difficult. I've been. taking more dogs of late.

No, it makes it easier because dogs cover more. The proportion of dogs covering when there is parity is actually higher than the proportion if favorites covering when there is no parity, so in that sense, parity is good for gamblers.

babyanni · 10-04-10, 07:18 AM

Best for me to stick to cfb where there is still Talent edge. NFL teams are to close talent wise and its about matchups and schemes hard to break down. Cfb has been good to me first 4 weeks Nfl im up $200 bucks after a shit sunday one or two more like yesterday may be just cfb.

k13 · 10-04-10, 07:31 AM

Next week will be a little tougher, very unbalanced, teams coming off byes. Public will be split and confused on a lot of games.

Only a few jump out at me so far.

Skidcom · 10-04-10, 08:06 AM

Season is too long. Never know when a team is going to take a break and ease back a bit

MTek · 10-04-10, 08:18 AM

I've heard a stat....83% of all games are not effected by the spread...basically you pick the right team and you win the bet.
The difference between betting NFL, against college football is the NFL are Pro's, they do this for a living, they have unlimited time in their week to fix problems and make adjustments, so it's harder to base wagers on "who's hot/who's better" in the NFL

How many times have we seen a 6th round receiver out muscle a 1st round corner? Or a back-up quaterback light up a top ranked defense? Their all professional therfore making it impossible to gauge week by week whos' BETTER

Ca$hfloW · 10-04-10, 08:21 AM

Originally posted by Duby

I keep winning Saturday and losing it right back on Sunday!

You have plus units for NFL and minus units in college

CHAZ · 10-04-10, 08:24 AM

My best week yet in the NFL.

As the season goes on it makes it easier to handicap in my opinion. The first few weeks are the hardest because you have nothing to come by except for last years stats and outcomes.

unusialsusp5 · 10-04-10, 08:28 AM

clods that subtract on teasers are doomed to failure. whoever sticks to 2 team dog teasers can at least survive. but you have to take a stand on a dog bet parlay or flat to make a decent attempt to win some money here and there. it's all about not pressing when you're down and maximizing your winners. money management and limited selection. also don't have a favorite team that you always play. yes injuries and refs are making the nfl a crap shoot. continue to search for dogs that you think can win outright. tread carefully in the college nonsense. bad defenses and turnovers are too prevalent.

slacker00 · 10-04-10, 08:55 AM

I need to improve my ability to predict when a starting QB will get knocked out of the game.

pavyracer · 10-04-10, 08:57 AM

Originally posted by slacker00

I need to improve my ability to predict when a starting QB will get knocked out of the game.

Need to cap offensive lines.

yisman · 10-04-10, 10:49 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Darker contest standings are not the same as actually betting real money, huge difference.

I bet real money on almost all my contest picks, jj.

22dsnyd22 · 10-04-10, 10:52 AM

Definitely Harder this year. Way too much parity............. Last year you could always fade the rams or lions. Defenses werent on the same even playing field like it is this year. Look at all te teams with 2 losses. Great for watching football but awful for trying to make money. Good Thread

22dsnyd22 · 10-04-10, 10:58 AM

Oh yeah doesnt help that this year Refs are giving teams 150 free years in stupid illegal hit and puzzy azz penalties. You never know what team is going to get these breaks. Hate NFL sometimes

LT Profits · 10-04-10, 10:58 AM

Again, why is parity bad? Parity makes it harder to lose if you bet mostly dogs. It really is that simple.

Ratzz · 10-04-10, 11:06 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Just too many team that are the same, whoever gets the breaks and turnovers wins the cover.

Proceed with caution

very tricky... excellent observation..

mdemps9190 · 10-04-10, 12:19 PM

Follow me JJ...Been tearing it up in NFL, and recently got back on the horse with a huge 10 unit play on Notre Dame Saturday