Bet I made with my buddy...

triqy · 10-07-10, 10:16 AM

hey, its somewhat like the BTP challenge. Which is really fun, I'd do it for the entertainment and challenge alone...

milwaukee mike · 10-07-10, 10:19 AM

is your buddy crapping his pants yet?
good luck

GiveMeaBJ · 10-07-10, 12:12 PM

GiveMeaBJ · 10-07-10, 12:13 PM

RudyRuetigger · 10-07-10, 12:14 PM

Great run here

blackbeSSt · 10-07-10, 03:22 PM

should be an interesting to follow this. BOL BJ

GiveMeaBJ · 10-07-10, 03:35 PM

Thanks black.

GiveMeaBJ · 10-08-10, 02:47 PM

JimmysEgo · 10-08-10, 02:53 PM

I have a bet with a chick friend of my wife, if the redskins make it to the playoffs she gets to laugh in my face. If the redskins don't make it to the playoffs I get to do whatever I want to her face. She's not very hot but I don't really care what my load lands on.

G's pks · 10-08-10, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by JimmysEgo

I have a bet with a chick friend of my wife, if the redskins make it to the playoffs she gets to laugh in my face. If the redskins don't make it to the playoffs I get to do whatever I want to her face. She's not very hot but I don't really care what my load lands on.

I like this bet better!

GiveMeaBJ · 10-08-10, 10:07 PM

GiveMeaBJ · 10-08-10, 10:07 PM

I don't know why its not showing up when I post the spreadsheet but I added OSU 2H o31 for $50.

GiveMeaBJ · 10-09-10, 01:38 AM

GiveMeaBJ · 10-09-10, 02:04 AM

AceKingHigh · 10-09-10, 02:09 AM

Very nice!! Good luck!

DevilCheese · 10-09-10, 02:46 AM

Given the amounts you listed you'll end up with about $40,000 in risked wagers after 500 plays. So to profit $3,000 you would need a ROI of 7.5%, which means you'll have to hit 60% of your plays (with -110 vigs). Even some of the best bettors only hit around 55%, especially with a large volume of plays. Just to give you an idea, let's say you are capable of hitting 55% long term (still, impressive), then your odds of getting lucky and hitting 60% or more over 500 plays would only be about 1.4%.

Getting 8 to 1 odds implies a 11.1% probability, which means your theoretical win percentage would need to be greater than 57.2% to make this a +EV bet. Like I said, with that volume, even the sharpest bettors around would have difficulty. Off to a great start though, GL.

GiveMeaBJ · 10-09-10, 02:49 AM

Originally posted by DevilCheese

Given the amounts you listed you'll end up with about $40,000 in risked wagers after 500 plays. So to profit $3,000 you would need a ROI of 7.5%, which means you'll have to hit 60% of your plays (with -110 vigs). Even some of the best bettors only hit around 55%, especially with a large volume of plays. Just to give you an idea, let's say you are capable of hitting 55% long term (still, impressive), then your odds of getting lucky and hitting 60% or more over 500 plays would only be about 1.4%.

Getting 8 to 1 odds implies a 11.1% probability, which means your theoretical win percentage would need to be greater than 57.2% to make this a +EV bet. Like I said, with that volume, even the sharpest bettors around would have difficulty. Off to a great start though, GL.

Thanks. But, my unit sizing is supposed to be able to make up for some %. If I hit high on my bigger wagers I will have a cushion. No?

Anyway, **** the math...I'll just do it.

DevilCheese · 10-09-10, 03:04 AM

True, betting more where there is more value will give you better odds. Technically, I think you should be betting the max possible with every bet as that lowers your required ROI needed to 5.6%. Which means you would only have to hit 58% of your bets. Obviously when I say those numbers they are an average, and you could hit less than 58% if your bigger bets cash more often than the lower ones.

DevilCheese · 10-09-10, 03:23 AM

To make that a little clearer, because you're essentially limited to the total amount of money you can risk, you shouldn't be making plays for less than $50 if you can bet between $0 and $50. The reason is, as long as you're hitting over 52.38% (or enough to make it +EV) then you'll be maximizing the total amount of money won with that bet if you bet as much as you can. If you make 150 plays for $30 each and hit 53% of them you'll make less money than if you had made each bet with $50. If you aren't hitting above 52% with those small bets then maybe you should be betting $1 instead (like prevent defense) because they would just be hurting you. Since it's basically play money, going tilt isn't an issue so we don't worry about making bets based on bankroll percentages.

GiveMeaBJ · 10-09-10, 03:25 AM

I'm just basing it off of $30 increments. I need to win 100 units in 500 plays. My goal: get there and then do some prevent defense. If I can get there all I have to do is keep my head above water until the 500 plays are over. Right now at 75 plays and almost 1/3 of the way there. At this stage I am trying to protect some profits while picking up units.

DevilCheese · 10-09-10, 03:48 AM

You are off to a great start, just saying it's unrealistic to think you will continue at that pace. It's up to you. I will say it's a good idea to keep playing the correlated bets like team A to win game and team A to win series. At least until you make it over $3,000 or close to it.

GiveMeaBJ · 10-10-10, 02:45 AM

konck · 10-10-10, 05:28 AM

He is Mortal

konck · 10-10-10, 05:30 AM

If you think you can do it fuk the bet take your 500 and play it like you do here.....oh wait you cant past post on real bets

GiveMeaBJ · 10-10-10, 07:09 AM

Name one bet I past posted or shut up.

jjgold · 10-10-10, 07:41 AM

Interesting thread

Giver does not past post plays guys

Best of luck going good so far

Dad · 10-11-10, 11:08 AM

Doing good BJ. Keep it going.

BKat52 · 10-12-10, 08:39 AM

yep, good luck bj.. i'll keep an eye on this forum.. sounds like a fun challenge