Teasers - Play them? Any math to back it up?

[Shonner]

I know a lot of people like to play teasers, I do not.

For those that play them, do you have any math that proves certain spreads on teasers are advantageous? Basically, what I am asking is, are there certain spreads that have a high likelihood of landing within 6 or so points that make prove, statistically, that teasers are a good play?

I would think that it would make sense to use teasers in games with low totals.

6 pts on a total of 38 is a lot. 6 pts on a total of 55, not so much.

Thoughts?

[Justin7]

have you done any database work to test your hypothesis?

If you tease a total of 38 down to 32, how often does it go over? Enough to hit your breakeven rate?

What about 38, teased up to 44? How often does it go under the teased total?

[Boner_18]

Search the think tank. Guys there have written boat loads about this stuff. I have read lots of it... still trying to wrap my head around lots of it...

[Reload]

We've got quite a few teasers' experts here, Shonner!

[Shonner]

have you done any database work to test your hypothesis?

If you tease a total of 38 down to 32, how often does it go over? Enough to hit your breakeven rate?

What about 38, teased up to 44? How often does it go under the teased total?

what calculator would i use? i started to fool around but couldnt figure out which one. the 1/2 point only gives %'s on a base spread, not "over 22..."

i am a rookie at this stats stuff.

[Shonner]

We've got quite a few teasers' experts here, Shonner!

i can see, these guys are smart.

[d2bets]

have you done any database work to test your hypothesis?

If you tease a total of 38 down to 32, how often does it go over? Enough to hit your breakeven rate?

What about 38, teased up to 44? How often does it go under the teased total?

I thought he was saying that it's better to tease the side when the game has a low total. That I would agree with.

[THE PROFIT]

I havent hit a teaser since the Clinton administration

[B1GER1C828]

I tend to like teaser low totals for the under. This week i believe O/U on miami/ny is 35. Going to tease wit under 41 along with a side. Is it mathematically better? i got absolutely no idea but it seems to work well when i do it.

[Shonner]

have you done any database work to test your hypothesis?

If you tease a total of 38 down to 32, how often does it go over? Enough to hit your breakeven rate?

What about 38, teased up to 44? How often does it go under the teased total?

OK I took a closer look at the 1/2 point calculator and I see how I can get the #'s from there....but before I crank #'s, I have a few questions if you don't mind:

1) the 1/2 point calculator example has a disclaimer: "The calculator becomes increasingly less accurate the farther away from the starting spread/total it moves. Although the calculator allows you to examine prices more than 1½ points from the initial spread/total, doing so is not generally recommended and such values should be viewed with an abundance of caution." I understand it is talking about prices (e.g., -275). But the Win Probability % that shows up by putting your cursor over the Over/Favorite Edge column is solely based off the true odds which are assumed to be 100% efficient. So it's accurate to say to use caution when looking at prices after moving 1.5 pts away, but Win Probabilities are 100% correct even when moving 5+ pts away from the spread, assuming it's an efficient market?

2) When looking at the win probability of a game going over 32 when the line is set at 38, don't I have to adjust the push probability so I get a more accurate Win Probability? In the case of the game that is set at O/U 38, the calculator has the probability of it going over 32 at 67.08%. BUT, this takes into account a push probability of 1.33%. The push probability of 1.33% is based on an O/U of 32, NOT the true O/U of 38. Therefore the 1.33% SHOULD be adjusted (one may argue what to adjust it to), correct?

3) In another thread I gave an example of the EV for 2 bets, the favorite at -4 and the underdog at +6. I gave the following breakdown:

Bet 1: Underdog +6 risking 1100 to win 1000
Bet 2: Favorite -4 risking 1100 to win 1000

Possible Outcomes based on SBR half point calculator:
fav wins by 4 (0.0299)*(1000 winnings) = 29.90
fav wins by 5 (0.0168)*(2000 winnings) = 33.60
fav wins by 6 (0.034)*(1000 winnings) = 34.00
any other outcome (0.9193)*(-100 loss) = -91.93

Now that I look at it, i believe my EV calculation is flawed. Because for each scenario (win by 4, 5, and 6), the probability of pushing is based on each separate efficient line of 4, 5, and 6. So basically, I should really find the "True" odds of the the favorite winning by 4 and 5 when the efficient market is 6, and then calculate the odds based on that one line. Probably difficult, if not impossible to do. Is there a better way to get a more accurate EV in the example i gave?

Thanks,
Shonner.

[Justin7]

Tough questions.

If you want to estimate the push percentage for the "32" with a game totaled at 38, you need to search a database for that. Even if you use 20 years though, you won't have a very meaningful sample for a tiny subset like that, so you may have to window a segment a little larger. How often do games with totals of 36-40 push on the 32? or other totals?

[jjgold]

Well if there is any math advantage to gambling it would not e called gambling

Middles and scalps are your only edge when it comes to gambling, anything else is pure speculation

God Bless

[Shonner]

Tough questions.

If you want to estimate the push percentage for the "32" with a game totaled at 38, you need to search a database for that. Even if you use 20 years though, you won't have a very meaningful sample for a tiny subset like that, so you may have to window a segment a little larger. How often do games with totals of 36-40 push on the 32? or other totals?

Thx for the feedback.

Regarding the disclaimer "The calculator becomes increasingly less accurate the farther away from the starting spread/total it moves..." -- I know this is referring to the Price. But is the inaccuracy comment referring to the Win Probability too?

[Justin7]

yes.

[Shonner]

yes.

These are still great calculators and we all know they are to be used as a guide not an exact science.

Thx for the help

[unusialsusp5]

just follow the 11th commandment. doth shall not tease totals ever. doth shall not subtract on any favorite ever. only tease short price road team underdogs to get the points over 7 or over 10 only!!!

[Shonner]

yes.

That makes sense, the win probability is just a function of the price, again, assuming the market is efficient.

[LT Profits]

Keep your life simple: Don't tease totals and only teams spreads that cross both the 3 or the 7. Yes, you may be missing other profitable opportunities by playing Wong Teasers only, but you will win in the long run anyway (until books adjust the teaser odds again).

[Shonner]

Keep your life simple: Don't tease totals and only teams spreads that cross both the 3 or the 7. Yes, you may be missing other profitable opportunities by playing Wong Teasers only, but you will win in the long run anyway (until books adjust the teaser odds again).

Thank you for the info.

[vieruccio]

I agree: between 3 and 7 is the best choice

[Shonner]

I agree: between 3 and 7 is the best choice

Yeah I am going to stick with this. Thanks everyone for your information. I have been betting a while but never played teasers before. Nice to tap into the wealth of knowledge here.

[LT Profits]

To clarity, Wong Teasers cross BOTH the 3 AND the 7, they are not "between" 3 and 7.

[Vesuvius]

I'd stay away from teasers early in the season, some may say you have the best advantage in the beginning but I like to start these around Week 6 instead.

[RickySteve]

Much more to it than just crossing the 3 & 7.

[Thremp]

4/6 are hot.

But its a math problem. Its not like some magical rule that holds forever.

[ryanjep]

i was going to say learn wong teasers but already mentioned in this thread

[dmolition]

What about when different books have different lines, for example bookmaker has -7.5 on a home favorite,
and pinnacle has -7 -125 or if it is a dog pinny would have it at +3 -125 and bookmaker +2.5 -110.
Those odds maybe are wrong but the logic still stands, which book would help you make the decision if the game is a wong teaser or not? Do i need all books to have the same line for it to be a good teaser?

[subs]

from the research i've been doing in the last few weeks i have found out a few things i feel may be worth passing on (prolly get corrected by some supa fly types ie Ricky Steve, Thremp, LT and Justin7).

it seems that crossing the 3 and 7 is obviously the main thing but also the lower the total the better.
road favs are not the best option.
NCAAF is not the same as NFL and may not be +EV.
take 3 team, 6 point teasers @ +180 and 4 team, 6 points @ 300. they are more profitable than 2 teams @ -110.
make sure that a push means that you revert down to the next teaser odds down. eg 3 team teaser with a push goes to 2 teamer odds.

i combine books that offer good odds but lose a push and books that offer push reduces rules. so for teasers that can not push (2.5, or 8.5 ect) use better odds book with bad rules.

unfortunately i am not yet in a position to give u proppa stats. read stanford wong's book and do a search for bill the cop - prolly the most helpful cop in the world.

i hope this is not a case of the blind leading the blind.
best of luck