Is this a middle?

[dynamite140]

Not sure what to call it but i am not sure if this is a middle or not.

I see a college football game where you can take

Team A +14 (-110)
Team B -13.5 (+101)


Is this bet worth it? The only way you profit here is if Team B wins by exactly 14 points which is not that hard since its pretty much close to the spread and a key number. Using $100 as the base amount to make it simple, if this game does not end with Team B winning by exactly 14, you are down around $4.48 using the scalpulator and plugging in those numbers. But if Team B wins by exactly 14, you win about $105 or so if you enter the right numbers.

Obviously if the juice was something like team A (-105) and Team B (+105) this would be an easy bet because you are freerolling. But if you look at this situation, if Team B wins by exactly 14 points 1 time out of 23 times, then this bet is good.

Basically its Team B need to win by exactly 14 and you win $105 or any other result you lose $4.48 just by using a $100 base amount to make it simple. Am i right or wrong with these calculations? Surely some bet like this is good or is it a waste of money? I know if you can get Team A +17 and Team B -14, that is an easy bet because there is a 3 point middle and 14 and 17 are key numbers in a football game. But what about situations like this? Now if it was +18.5 and -19, i think its worthless.

Anyone can give me their thoughts of something like this?

[RichardMoss]

Most books won't let you play both sides of the same game.

[Flight]

Assuming you're talking about NCAAFB, expected push with a spread of 14 is 3.9%. If it lands on this number, you win $101, all other outcomes, you lose $4.48.

EV = (.039)(101) + (1-0.039)(-4.48)
=(0.039)(101) + (0.961)(-4.48)
= 3.939 - 4.305
= -0.366

So you can expect to lose 37 cents. Not a good enough middle.

Note, I assumed your scalp number of $4.48 is correct. You can adjust the equation as necessary.

[bbenson011]

agree here with flight not profitable enough to middle need more points for it work

[RonPaul2008]

It is not a "middle", it is a "side."
And I would not pay more then 6 cents for a 14 side in CFB.

[Shonner]

Assuming you're talking about NCAAFB, expected push with a spread of 14 is 3.9%. If it lands on this number, you win $101, all other outcomes, you lose $4.48.

EV = (.039)(101) + (1-0.039)(-4.48)
=(0.039)(101) + (0.961)(-4.48)
= 3.939 - 4.305
= -0.366

So you can expect to lose 37 cents. Not a good enough middle.

Note, I assumed your scalp number of $4.48 is correct. You can adjust the equation as necessary.

How did you figure out that a push with a spread of 14 is 3.9%? is there a calculator out there?

[Shonner]

hey man, How did you figure out that a push with a spread of 14 is 3.9%? is there a calculator out there?

[Doug]

by definition a middle allows you to win both bets on the game by betting both sides of the game often at different books.

+14.5/ -13.5 is a middle if the fav wins by 14.

You have to determine if the vig is worth it falling on 14, Sometimes you'll get +100 or better on both ends of that, not often, though !

You need to evaluate the liklihood of middling/ siding a bet relative to the vig and withdrawal costs and time value of your money while waiting to get paid.

[Doug]

hey man, How did you figure out that a push with a spread of 14 is 3.9%? is there a calculator out there?

Depends a lot on the total of the game and the sport involved.

It's an art.

[Shonner]

Here's an example of +EV: You place first bet and take the dog at +6, then line moves, you get favorite at -4. $1100 to win $1000 each bet

Bet 1: Underdog +6 risking 1100 to win 1000
Bet 2: Favorite -4 risking 1100 to win 1000

Possible Outcomes based on SBR half point calculator:
fav wins by 4 (0.0299)*(1000 winnings) = 29.90
fav wins by 5 (0.0168)*(2000 winnings) = 33.60
fav wins by 6 (0.034)*(1000 winnings) = 34.00
any other outcome (0.9193)*(-100 loss) = -91.93

Add 'em up, your total expected value (EV) is $5.57, That is +EV my friend. It may not seem like a lot but when pro's hit these over and over for large amounts, it adds up, its virtually guaranteed $ in the long run.

[Shonner]

my example above was for NFL

[RonPaul2008]

You're above example for NFL is not a good arb IMO.

I wouldn't pay more then 15 cents for that in NFL.

my example above was for NFL