Take the Iowa vs. Arizona game, for instance. Line went from Iowa -1.5 to Arizona -1. How much money got bet on Arizona to move that line do you think?
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why don't you start throwing 5k and 10k bets around and find out
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$5,000 from Joe Square doesn't equal $5,000 from Joe Sharp. That's one other "dimension" to take into consideration: how "smart" the money is.Comment -
I am very smart - if I bet $5,000 does that mean I will move the line more than my wife, who is incredibly attractive but definitely not very bright?Comment -
It depends at which book. You may need millions of action at one book and a few thousands at another book to move a line.Comment -
post a picOriginally posted by newguyComment -
Originally posted by pavyracer
thisComment -
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sharp money one way + square money the other = line movementComment -
That is the stupidest logic I've ever heard. Books don't care where they money is coming from as long as it's even...Originally posted by MadTigerComment -
according to Mike Hlas of ESPN..... a sharps bet of $500 can move the line 2 points. That was news to me.Comment -
Not true at all crackerjack
Book wants an extra half point or point on the favorite or whoever the public is betting, just to get a better chance of beating the public
To think a book wants equal action all the time is false. Only time a book wants equal action and sets the line at 50/50 is for the super bowl where there are millions of dollars on each side.Comment -
at a 5 client local maybe
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According to Mike Hlas of ESPN..... a $500 bet from a well known sharp in Vegas can move the line 2 points. That was news to me!Comment -
That is not stupid logic. My roomate used to work for a large online book and he says they gamble on almost every game. There is rarely even $ on both sides.Comment -
Haha. The ESPN guys are such jokes, actually to learn what the public is thinking (and betting) I watch ESPN.Originally posted by Husker36
A book could take $100,000 in square action and not budge
But a series of 5K sharp bets would move the line in a few seconds.
Remember it's not always money either, it could be information that moves the line or service releases (RAS totals, etc)Comment -
Is this a fkn joke? Why don't you make your next quest to find out how much you have to invest to make the stock market move 3 points?Comment -
you been here 4 years and you really just posted this?Originally posted by crackerjack
come on man, we need a better effort here outta you 'cause this is all wrong
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It's a legimate question. Ultimately the books want to minimize risk. 100K from public would definitely move line if no money from so called sharps wasn't coming in on other side.Comment -
they might just be playing with the line to make you overthink everthingComment -
How does a book know the difference between a sharp bet and joe blow who's just ballsy with big bets? Maybe a stupid question but I'd like to know.Comment -
I don't see that as a big line move, both #s are under a FG. Iowa -1.5 to +1 is not the same as Iowa -3 to -0.5 for example.Comment -
Originally posted by MadTiger
I like to look at what vegas lines are doing. I like to compare with offshore books. like for instance, I am currently taking Boise State this saturday and I see that the MIRAGE has it at Boise State -23 when everyother book has them at -24 or higher. There are notorious bettors in vegas and when they hit a game hard or all agree on a game pretty hard the line will defitently jump. Vegas to me seems to have the most meaningful line movement. So with the MIRAGE at a cheaper fav, tells me some early sharps took Wyoming hard. Now watch that line jump to -23.5 or even -24 come game time. I don't really have a good grasp yet on knowing whats a sucker line move or a significant line move. A good place to help on that is look at the consesous, what majority is on which team. Public is heavy on Boise yet MIRAGE is down to -23 instead of -24 or -23.5 with the rest. Makes you stratch your head
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Good point, thats why the first line move is the most meaningfulOriginally posted by crackerjackComment -
look at it this way:Originally posted by crackerjack
that big group of bettors is throwing 100k down to win 91k. the book is effectively betting 91k to win 100k. they're ahead $4.5k before the game even starts, assuming the number is accurate.
the primary issue is getting the number right, and the math takes care of itself in the long-run. short term risk is definitely an issue, but that is secondary. the idea that their main goal is to balance the action is not true (its impossible). the other factor in balancing the action is you're opening yourself up to middles if you move the line too much.Comment -
read this in it's entirety
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That's right. Books don't profile players. They don't toss them for making sharp bets. And they CERTAINLY don't care who makes a big bet.Originally posted by crackerjack
Seriously, crackerjack... If Michael Jordan walks into Caesars palace and wants to bet 100k on an NFL game, they will take it and won't even blink. 10k from anyone they don't know, and they'll bump the line.
Internet bets are typically better at profiling. Vegas books can ID mega-chumps. Offshores can ID the wise guys, and react forcefully to their bets.Comment -
Thats pretty easy to find out....Originally posted by TodaysLocksComment -
When one sees a quantitative analysis of the betting as a percentage of the whole, does it represent the number of bets rather the the amount of cash? I just assumed it represented the number of bettors. If so, how could really have an idea of the 'cash' on each side? I think you are matter-of-factly stating that neither relevant to a line move and that that is affected by the sharp or not sharp nature of the people who are doing the betting.Originally posted by Justin7
Sorry for the 'green' nature of the question/s but I am learning
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Then why wouldn't Michael Jordan pay someone to place a bet on his behalf on the opposite line he likes to move the line for 10K and move into the casino and place a 100K bet on the soft line he likes since he artificially moved the line in his favor?Originally posted by Justin7
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I agree here with what Pavy said.Originally posted by pavyracerThen why wouldn't Michael Jordan pay someone to place a bet on his behalf on the opposite line he likes to move the line for 10K and move into the casino and place a 100K bet on the soft line he likes since he artificially moved the line in his favor?Comment -
Don't agree @ all. From +120 to -120 is big movement that's for ML betters.Originally posted by lordswing
Down 21-23 -1.5 kick the FG still lose. Up 23-21 +1.5 they kick a FG u still win. Also Iowa is now no longer a road fav. Which changes alot of things. Of course with this movement I'd still stick to Arizona.Comment -
Back in 2000 I spoke with Robert Walker the sportsbook directer for the MGM Mirage.I asked him if his company's action is balanced on football games.I mentioned that it seemed to me that on half the games there was lopsided action.Walker's response was that he didn't
mind lopsided action as long as the sportsbook makes money on those games.Then I asked him why he didn't make more line moves to balance the action.His answer was that moving the line would result in less profit for the sportbook.Balanced action is seldom achieved.
It's a myth that balancing the action is the purpose of the line,except in the case of the Super Bowl
This is a quote from Sharp Sports Betting By Stanford Wong.Comment -
Celebrities have no interest in value. They just want big bets.Originally posted by pavyracerThen why wouldn't Michael Jordan pay someone to place a bet on his behalf on the opposite line he likes to move the line for 10K and move into the casino and place a 100K bet on the soft line he likes since he artificially moved the line in his favor?Comment -
Really, this SI link?
Oh come on man, this is from 1986. a MASSIVE amount of shit has changed in the sports betting world since 1986. Did you look at the date on this before you posted?Originally posted by Joepbj
March 10, 1986
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