I am starting to think the best +EV plays on the board are huge moneylines. Maybe I have been lucky but I am 20-0 this year in college football.
All the plays were posted well before gametime, and yes they were all huge ML's, still I played a huge moneyline parlay that paid +325 week 1 and it won and I played a moneyline parlay that paid +117 on saturday and it won.
Both plays were posted. But thats in the past and thats not what this is about.
This week I see Alabama is -1800 ML at The Greek ( It may be lower elsewhere, I only checked the greek ).
Now I am asking, would Duke actually beat Alabama 5.5% of the time ???? I dont think Duke would win 1 out of 50 games against Bama. Everything and I mean everything would have to fall Duke's way for Duke to even have a chance come 4th quarter.
I know that -1800 would be a no go for most bettors. Lets be honest here, 99 % of bettors have limited funds and they want to bet their $300 and try to win another $300, not to try and win $17. I understand that as my funds are limited as well.
Just the same, we all know that betting single games ATS is a tough road. 52% winners loses you money at full juice, and very very few can hit even 52% long term.
My theory here is that the only real consistent +EV plays are found in huge moneylines where the book figures -1800 is enough where they wont get crushed on people playing the Bama ML. By keeping it low like that they dont have to offer much on DUKE ML as books dont want to take a chance on getting crushed with a couple huge upsets.
The Greek has DUKE ML at +1100. Would anyone on Earth play DUKE ML at +1100 ? I suppose someone would, just hoping to get lucky, but I would need +10000 to consider it.
Now I know I am long winded but as I further consider these plays. We have Penn State ML -1500 and PURDUE ML -650
THERE IS NO WAY BALL STATE WILL BEAT PURDUE. Purdue should be -3000 minimum. Im just saying.
Now im not saying upsets dont happen, of course they do. So I am not saying to bet every huge ML. I wouldnt touch Oklahoma -850 ML because Air Force, well I wouldnt lay -850 ML against Air Force.
But just the same a 4 team ML parlay here with Bama, Purdue, Penn State, and Ohio State comes out to about -225 or -250. I am just saying, we bet baseball teams all the time at -225 or -250 and anyhing can happen in baseball.
What is the likelihood of Bama, Purdue, Penn State, and Ohio State all 4 winning this saturday ? I say at least 90%, the ML on this parlay is -250 tops.
Am I onto something here or have I just got lucky the first two weeks and now my brain is toast ?
TIA for opinions
All the plays were posted well before gametime, and yes they were all huge ML's, still I played a huge moneyline parlay that paid +325 week 1 and it won and I played a moneyline parlay that paid +117 on saturday and it won.
Both plays were posted. But thats in the past and thats not what this is about.
This week I see Alabama is -1800 ML at The Greek ( It may be lower elsewhere, I only checked the greek ).
Now I am asking, would Duke actually beat Alabama 5.5% of the time ???? I dont think Duke would win 1 out of 50 games against Bama. Everything and I mean everything would have to fall Duke's way for Duke to even have a chance come 4th quarter.
I know that -1800 would be a no go for most bettors. Lets be honest here, 99 % of bettors have limited funds and they want to bet their $300 and try to win another $300, not to try and win $17. I understand that as my funds are limited as well.
Just the same, we all know that betting single games ATS is a tough road. 52% winners loses you money at full juice, and very very few can hit even 52% long term.
My theory here is that the only real consistent +EV plays are found in huge moneylines where the book figures -1800 is enough where they wont get crushed on people playing the Bama ML. By keeping it low like that they dont have to offer much on DUKE ML as books dont want to take a chance on getting crushed with a couple huge upsets.
The Greek has DUKE ML at +1100. Would anyone on Earth play DUKE ML at +1100 ? I suppose someone would, just hoping to get lucky, but I would need +10000 to consider it.
Now I know I am long winded but as I further consider these plays. We have Penn State ML -1500 and PURDUE ML -650
THERE IS NO WAY BALL STATE WILL BEAT PURDUE. Purdue should be -3000 minimum. Im just saying.
Now im not saying upsets dont happen, of course they do. So I am not saying to bet every huge ML. I wouldnt touch Oklahoma -850 ML because Air Force, well I wouldnt lay -850 ML against Air Force.
But just the same a 4 team ML parlay here with Bama, Purdue, Penn State, and Ohio State comes out to about -225 or -250. I am just saying, we bet baseball teams all the time at -225 or -250 and anyhing can happen in baseball.
What is the likelihood of Bama, Purdue, Penn State, and Ohio State all 4 winning this saturday ? I say at least 90%, the ML on this parlay is -250 tops.
Am I onto something here or have I just got lucky the first two weeks and now my brain is toast ?
TIA for opinions
