Did I cheat myself?

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  • LVBOUND
    SBR MVP
    • 07-25-08
    • 2658

    #1
    Did I cheat myself?
    As some of you guys know I got a baseball system that plays 3 and 4 game series. I no longer CHASE , but play everything straight. However I play it the same way if I loose game 1 I play game 2 and then game 3 unless it costs more than 25% of my bankroll. So now on to the question.

    When I have a 4 game series I look at game 1 and game 4 and decided what game is a better game for the team I am betting.

    So on Sunday night I looked at my series for WEEK 19A of the MLB Season.

    MIN at CHW 3 game series
    ARZ at MIL 4 game series
    PIT at SD 3 game series
    BAL at CLE 3 game series

    so the only real handicapping I had was to decide when to start the Arz to Mil series.

    On Sunday night when I made my decision. I looked at the Starters and seen that Ian Kennedy had got rocked in his last 5 outings. So I decided to go with Mil starting game #1.

    I then came on the forums and posted my pick when I got home from work today. As I began to read the forums I read PACO's post that Hart and Braun where out of the game.

    So I got to thinking if I was playing my system in Las Vegas and was going to walk up to the counter to place the bet don't you think I would have double checked for injuries? If not I will for sure now, so I will take it as a learning lesson.

    The question to you is if I change my books now am I cheating? I can argue it both ways

    #1) Yes, Just like a computer mis click I might have done the same thing live in Vegas and learned my lesson.
    #2) No, There is no way I wouldn't have double checked injuries before placing a 1200 bet.

    Note: To be 100% honest as I have been tracking the system win or loss I have not ALWAYS check right before gametime for injuries.

    Note #2: I had planned on making alot of my wagers with overnight lines, because they favor my plays.

    I would really appreciate your input.
    2
    Yes
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    1
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  • dollarbill
    SBR MVP
    • 03-22-09
    • 1288

    #2
    I voted no b/c it's impossible to follow all MLB teams and injuries. Alot of balllayers today are day to day whether they will sit/out or play injured or not especially this time of the season. Some injuries should be listed as questionable as to whether or not it's valid. Bottom line unless you are on the disabled list yourself and can follow up to the first pitch your best using your overnight lines and hoping for the best........
    Comment
    • Patrick McIrish
      SBR MVP
      • 09-15-05
      • 2864

      #3
      Unless you have some real knowledge of what is going on with key players who might/might not play I'd say not worry about it too much. The injuries/sit-outs and so on may help as much as harm you over time, things tend to even out. Besides you and your system have bigger issues to conquer. Good luck moving forward.
      Comment
      • Pokerjoe
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 04-17-09
        • 704

        #4
        You have to hold yourself to the strictest possible standards in developing systems or models.
        Comment
        • LVBOUND
          SBR MVP
          • 07-25-08
          • 2658

          #5
          Originally posted by Pokerjoe
          You have to hold yourself to the strictest possible standards in developing systems or models.
          I am trying to do that and so I am posing the question to you guys.

          The main question is this

          If I had decided to start playing the series on game #1 and as I was walking through the M Casino to place the bet I read on my phone or discovered some other way that Ryan Braun and Cory Hart where out of the lineup for that night but one or both would return the following night, would I change my system to start at game #2?
          Comment
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