First the recap, pushed on the over in last night's Yankees game. Tonight I'm looking at this Cardinals/Reds game. We have the Cardinals ace in Chris Carpenter and Mike Leake starting for tonight's match up. Carpenter is 12-3 on the year with a 2.91 ERA. In his last 3 starts he is 1-0 with 2 no decisions, but his team has won all 3 of his past starts. He is 3-1 in road starts this year with a 3.15 ERA. In his road starts the Cardinals are giving Chris 5.0 runs of support and his opponent is averaging 3.70 runs. Chris has given up 16 home runs this year. 7 of which came on the road not to mention 8 left the ballpark in his night starts. My gut tells me he gives up at least another one to this dangerous reds lineup. If you look at Carpenter's history against the Reds you will probably think I'm nuts. He has dominated this team in the past. Do you know he hasn't given up more than 2 earned runs against this team since 2006? Doesn't matter to me because tonight this total is going over. Let's talk about Leake now.
Mike Leake is 7-3 on the year with a 3.86 ERA. In his last 3 starts he is 1-2 with a lousy 6.06 ERA. In those 3 starts he has pitched only 16.1 innings, giving up 19 hits, 12 runs, 5 walks, and 2 long balls. In those starts his team is giving him 4.67 runs of support, not too bad but the only problem is his opponent is averaging 6.00 runs per game (total of 10.67 runs per game). Opponents on base percentage against Leake is over .360 now with a WHIP of almost 1.5. He is struggling to say the least. Did you happen to see his last 2 starts? He couldn't get past the Pirates or the Astros as he took the loss in each game. He looked horrible against Pitt only lasting 5 innings, giving up 7 runs and 7 hits. If that offense can do that to him, what do you think the Cardinals are going to do to him tonight? I unfortunately do not have any umpire stats in this one, but I will make it up to you with some nice stats and angles for my play.
Seeing that the Cardinals had a day off they should be nice and fresh in this one and the bats should come alive since the Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games following an off day. They like Monday's as well. The Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 Monday games. Over is 7-2 in Cardinals last 9 during game 1 of a series. When playing division foes they like to bring the wood out as well as the Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 vs. National League Central. Look over to the Reds side and you see almost the same thing. Over is 7-2-1 in Reds last 10 Monday games. Over is 6-1 in Leakes last 7 starts overall. Over is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in Cincinnati. It's nice and warm in Cincy right now with a light breeze blowing 3mph to the NW which is out to center field. I think the ball will be jumping all over the place tonight, even with Carpenter on the mound. This total opened up at 7.5 and has since moved to 8 at some books. Not sure about you guys, but I will take my money and happily back the over tonight. Leake should get lit up against this Cardinals offense, and I expect the Reds to give me a little support as well. Weather and situations all point to the over in this one. Fade or play, I wish all my friends here the best of luck. As always, for good measure, here are a few more things I saw that helped my decision. Good Luck!
Over is 4-0 in Carpenters last 4 road starts vs. Reds.
Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Over is 6-1-1 in Carpenters last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
St. Louis Cardinals/Cincinnati Reds Over 7½ (-120)
Risking 240 to Win 200
Mike Leake is 7-3 on the year with a 3.86 ERA. In his last 3 starts he is 1-2 with a lousy 6.06 ERA. In those 3 starts he has pitched only 16.1 innings, giving up 19 hits, 12 runs, 5 walks, and 2 long balls. In those starts his team is giving him 4.67 runs of support, not too bad but the only problem is his opponent is averaging 6.00 runs per game (total of 10.67 runs per game). Opponents on base percentage against Leake is over .360 now with a WHIP of almost 1.5. He is struggling to say the least. Did you happen to see his last 2 starts? He couldn't get past the Pirates or the Astros as he took the loss in each game. He looked horrible against Pitt only lasting 5 innings, giving up 7 runs and 7 hits. If that offense can do that to him, what do you think the Cardinals are going to do to him tonight? I unfortunately do not have any umpire stats in this one, but I will make it up to you with some nice stats and angles for my play.
Seeing that the Cardinals had a day off they should be nice and fresh in this one and the bats should come alive since the Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games following an off day. They like Monday's as well. The Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 Monday games. Over is 7-2 in Cardinals last 9 during game 1 of a series. When playing division foes they like to bring the wood out as well as the Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 vs. National League Central. Look over to the Reds side and you see almost the same thing. Over is 7-2-1 in Reds last 10 Monday games. Over is 6-1 in Leakes last 7 starts overall. Over is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in Cincinnati. It's nice and warm in Cincy right now with a light breeze blowing 3mph to the NW which is out to center field. I think the ball will be jumping all over the place tonight, even with Carpenter on the mound. This total opened up at 7.5 and has since moved to 8 at some books. Not sure about you guys, but I will take my money and happily back the over tonight. Leake should get lit up against this Cardinals offense, and I expect the Reds to give me a little support as well. Weather and situations all point to the over in this one. Fade or play, I wish all my friends here the best of luck. As always, for good measure, here are a few more things I saw that helped my decision. Good Luck!
Over is 4-0 in Carpenters last 4 road starts vs. Reds.
Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Over is 6-1-1 in Carpenters last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
St. Louis Cardinals/Cincinnati Reds Over 7½ (-120)
Risking 240 to Win 200