here is a tough question for sbr

ronjon619 · 08-08-10, 11:35 PM

it's like any other gambling game. Gotta ride the hot streaks. Sometimes you have to stack and don't rack.

playersonly69 · 08-08-10, 11:39 PM

First of all, most posters have extra money to add to the bankroll every 2 weeks. If they start with $1000, then they probably will have another $1000 to add to it the next month if neccessary.

So most people who would start with $1000 in their account would be betting around $100-200 a bet I would say. If they go busto, then there bankroll is replenished on a 2 week basis if neccassary

fightingwarrior · 08-08-10, 11:42 PM

yeah playersonly i figured that thats what i been doing adding every 2 weeks.the same consistant amount of money but in time your bets become higher than your weekly paychecks.

i would just like some one to break it down and show me mathematically how it can work.even if you add money every 2 weeks.

your winning percentage still has to be 55 plus or higher

dwaechte · 08-08-10, 11:43 PM

You're expectations are far too high.... what the hell would be wrong with going from $1000 to $5000 in a season? 100% of people should take that in .00007 nanoseconds.

fightingwarrior · 08-08-10, 11:46 PM

1000.00 will say

say you add 2 weeks another 1,000

i need the mathematics to show me by betting 10 percent each game on a -110 scale how it will work

if you bet 5 games per week thats 550 and week 2 550 thats 1,100 you would need to win 7 out of 10 to have a decent profit thats 70 percent based on 10 games.

if you adjust your bankroll after 2 weeks and after you add it it still doesnt matter becuase if you are betting 10 percent on a roll per game when you go 0-5 and it will happen just like 5-0 you lose 50 percent of your roll.

it is the rollercoaster effect.

up down and never getting nothing except action.

when you wanna cash out and you wanna pay bills and do nothing but gamble it is almost impossible.so my advice is unless some one can prove im wrong KEEP YOUR JOB .

playersonly69 · 08-08-10, 11:50 PM

Well without parlays, even by betting $100 a game, you will NOT make it to $5000 off of an initial deposit of $1000. If you DO NOT deposit again throughout the season, then the most that you should expect to win would be to get the bankroll to around $3000 from $100 a game. Now i am assuming that you are only betting 5-10 plays a week.

Without betting parlays, I dont believe that you can make it to $5000 from $1000 initial stake even by betting $100 a game. Well maybe if you are betting 100 games a week, but most people only bet maybe 4-10 games a week

fightingwarrior · 08-08-10, 11:50 PM

well if it is so easy show me how to do it mathematically.

with out risking 10 percent or more on your bankroll.

also with a fair winning percentage.

i ran it winning 70 percent based on 1 percent and didnt even double the 1000.00 that is moving up and consistant.

if i do what players only says than yeah it is different becuase you add money every 2 weeks .

if your adding 1,000 every 2 weeks in 1 year you put 25,000 on average so if you have a winning season overall yes you can make money.

he is right on that point.

i havent calcuated how much but i am doing that now.

the problem is i cant add 1,000 every 2 weeks and alot of people cant either.

what is there solution>get a better job,and get a real life.

playersonly69 · 08-08-10, 11:53 PM

Some of us do gamble for a living Fighting. But you cant just put up a % number and live by that. There are situations where you take big moneyline dogs each week. We bet 2 or possibly 3 team parlays on occassion and a lot of other factors.

Personally, I do bet in baseball throughout the season. But when football rolls around each year, i search for an out that offers -105 odds

fightingwarrior · 08-08-10, 11:53 PM

yeah players i understand exactly what you are saying.

unless your adding money each week to the bankroll than i think you are overall going to lose or not make anything at all. even a successful bettor who makes 3,000 in 6 months isnt alot.

i mean maybe if you follow it 5 years than you are set but i would need the numbers to actually prove this to work.

fightingwarrior · 08-08-10, 11:55 PM

see thats another thing i havent calcuated is those parleys. give me some examples please on big underdogs and parleys.so i can review them.

ronjon619 · 08-08-10, 11:55 PM

or you can keep grinding out 3 winners every day. Sometimes you have to take the training wheels off and hit something for 5-10% of your roll.

fightingwarrior · 08-08-10, 11:57 PM

do you take all underdogs who have a +500 on nfl and hope it has a winning ratio of higher than 20 percent to bring you profits or something else.

parleys from my research are weird becuase a 6 to 1 parley your getting juiced actually a little more.

ronjon619 · 08-08-10, 11:57 PM

Originally posted by playersonly69

But when football rolls around each year, i search for an out that offers -105 odds

what do you mean by this?

rm18 · 08-08-10, 11:58 PM

Originally posted by fightingwarrior

do you take all underdogs who have a +500 on nfl and hope it has a winning ratio of higher than 20 percent to bring you profits or something else.

parleys from my research are weird becuase a 6 to 1 parley your getting juiced actually a little more.

6/1 on a 3 teamer is less juice than -110

fightingwarrior · 08-08-10, 11:59 PM

take the training wheels off.

lmao maybe if your bankroll is small under 10k i would say maybe you think a 1 mill bankroll will ever put 10 percent 100k on a game.if he does he must have a dead ass feeling.

than again when you have 100k you can play it different betting chalk lines here and there.

i wanna base it on a 1,000.00 bankroll possibly adding money every 2 weeks.

ronjon619 · 08-08-10, 11:59 PM

no parlays......bet 3 games and thats it. All straights no parlays or round robins.

fightingwarrior · 08-09-10, 12:00 AM

he looks for books that offers -105 instead of -110 thats what he means.

it reduces his losses over 2 percent i think maybe higher.

playersonly69 · 08-09-10, 12:00 AM

Well first of all, I NEVER TAKE BIG SPREAD favorites!

Throughout the entire NFL and NCAA season, I MIGHT take maybe 2 or 3 games where a favorite is favored by more than 6 points. That includes college.

I only bet underdogs. If the dog is +6 or less, then I will bet them on the moneyline almost on every occassion.

I will NEVER take a big spread favorite. Even if you love Texas at -25 the first week of the season for instance, just pass on that game. There are another 40-50 games to bet on that same day. Certainly you can find a nice dog or a small favorite to bet on.

fightingwarrior · 08-09-10, 12:02 AM

i think he might be right about the parleys.i have to run numbers to see.

if you bet 3 games per week you will have the monty hall problem multiple times per year come into effect and it is -ev over a season.

playersonly69 · 08-09-10, 12:03 AM

Oh yes, my bankroll management is shown this way. I dont necc bet on Sunday Night or Monday Night Football each week. At the beginning of each week, I try and find 4-5 NFL games that I like the most. If I dont have an opinion on MNF or SNF, then I dont bet those games.

Never force a bet just because the game is on TV

fightingwarrior · 08-09-10, 12:04 AM

a -25 line can actually be a good line if the line is suppose to be -29 or so.if thats the case you shpuld pound the -25 justin is a fan of that.

ronjon619 · 08-09-10, 12:05 AM

heres a typical Sunday at the sports book for me. Look for usually 2 winners for the 10AM games at $110 each game. If they both hit I'm looking for a 3rd bet for the 1pm games and that ticket will be $220 to win $200. If I lose the 2 morning games, I'm done for the day. If the 2 bets push(1 win and 1 loss) the 3rd bet will be $110. Either up or down $100 for the day.

fightingwarrior · 08-09-10, 12:06 AM

i am going to pass on t.v games this year unless i do alot of research for the game.

i dont get how you can bet ml on a game if it is on a key number though.

playersonly69 · 08-09-10, 12:08 AM

I still bet the moneyline on the dog if it is one of those 2 or 3 big games that I like that week.

fightingwarrior · 08-09-10, 12:08 AM

if it works it works i can just run the numbers by betting 3 games on a -110 line your either going to be up 100 or down 110 in most situations so if you times this times 1000 games it adds up.it becomes a big neg ev

ronjon619 · 08-09-10, 12:10 AM

there are days where you can hit 3.

fightingwarrior · 08-09-10, 12:10 AM

ill let you boys discuss it im off to bed,tomorrow ill figure it out.you need luck to be a good gambler imo.these nfl games spreads are the hardest out there and if it is on t.v it is dead on.

you can beat a sportsbook in the short term but can you do it in the long term.

this is the actual question.

fightingwarrior · 08-09-10, 12:12 AM

if it works and you have a winning system and its what you do keep doing it.im trying to find my system that works for me.so far it all has a neg ev in the long run.

sharpcat · 08-09-10, 12:49 AM

This thread is a train wreck

If you only have a $1,000 dollar bankroll you will not be able to quit your day job and bet sports for a living.

Build up a $20,000 bankroll and prove year in and year out that you are winning and not just getting lucky if you want to be a big shot professional gambler. Until then get this foolish idea out of your head focus on learning how to win at gambling first.

End of discussion!!!!!!!!!!

SBR_John · 08-09-10, 07:24 AM

Originally posted by sharpcat

This thread is a train wreck

If you only have a $1,000 dollar bankroll you will not be able to quit your day job and bet sports for a living.

Build up a $20,000 bankroll and prove year in and year out that you are winning and not just getting lucky if you want to be a big shot professional gambler. Until then get this foolish idea out of your head focus on learning how to win at gambling first.

End of discussion!!!!!!!!!!

Agree although starting small and learning with real money is part of the process that can not be skipped.

No matter how big or small your bank roll the biggest mistake gamblers make is how much they vary or deviate from their own standard unit. I heard Billy Walters once say anyone who tells you to bet 2 units on a game is a fraud. His point was never double the size of your bet, there is no such thing as a sure thing. If your unit is $100 your max bet should be $150, and if a game is not good enough for a full unit bet then pass it, dont bet a half a unit on a shaky play.