NFL Odds: Ravens, Jets Heading 'Over' in 2010
When you think of the Jets and Ravens, you think of defense, right? Of course you do. Now, when you think of defense in the NFL, does your brain immediately tell you to bet the low side on totals? If so, welcome to Squaresville, USA, population: A Bunch. The betting public will lay down hard-earned money on Jets and Ravens 'unders' in 2010, helping bookies across the land to make the payments on their vacation homes.
Picking NFL teams to consistently play ‘over’ the total is a difficult proposition. Last season, only nine of the league’s 32 teams cashed the ‘over’ more often than the ‘under’.
Thing is, the task is even harder than last season’s standings lead us to believe. Of the nine ‘over’ teams in 2009, three of them were 8-7-1 O/U. A field goal here or there and those squads could have easily been better ‘under’ wagers.
The overall lesson is totals are inflated, because square bettors love scoring, and as a result, they tend to pound the ‘over’ on the betting odds for a given game. Public bettors don’t root for a 10-6 score, and the market reacts accordingly.
In my view, looking to bet the ‘over’ is more about picking spots than it is about following a particular team. There are too many variables at play, and it’s the offseason, so we have no idea how the public is going to react after the first few weeks of action.
A look at last year’s best ‘over’ wagers reveals a slew of teams I’d back to play ‘under’ more often than not this season. The Giants were the best ‘over’ bet in ’09 with an 11-4-1 O/U mark, but they’re likely headed in the other direction.
Beset by a multitude of injuries to their defense last season, the Giants still finished 14th in total defense. Problem is, New York was 30th in scoring defense, allowing opponents to put up 26.7 points per game. That drove up the Giants’ totals (they even fooled oddsmakers, remember), and it won’t happen again with a healthy roster.
Of the six teams that posted healthy ‘over’ records last season, I’d pick the Chiefs to remain in the category. Kansas City was 9-5-2 O/U in ’09, making it the fourth most profitable ‘over’ play in the NFL.
The Chiefs are a mediocre team at best, and that plays into ‘over’ bettors’ hands. With the public downplaying Kansas City, they don’t think of it as a team that can put up points.
That won’t be the case this season with Charlie Weis coming in to run the offense. I’m not talking about fireworks here, but Weis’ arrival coupled with public perception is enough to drive down the total on Chiefs’ games.
One team I like to jump into the ‘over’ column this season is the Jets. Mark Sanchez should take a leap forward in his second season under center, and he’ll have weapons with Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, and Jerricho Cotchery at his disposal.
Also, expect New York’s league-leading defense to take a slight step back. The Jets flew under the radar last season, but other teams – and a tougher schedule – are ready for them. Look for New York to score more points, but to allow more as well.
Sanchez’s career path is eerily similar to that of Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco, and in that vein, look for Baltimore to cash the ‘over’ on a consistent basis this season.
The Ravens should have one of the league’s best defenses this season, but let’s face it: Ray Lewis isn’t getting younger. In addition, Ed Reed is on the PUP list after having hip surgery.
The perception remains of Baltimore as an all-defense, no-offense team. That won’t be the case with Flacco’s development in full swing and Anquan Boldin putting on a Ravens’ jersey.
More points, an aging defense, and low totals due to public perception makes for a sharp ‘over’ wager. Lower totals don’t necessarily indicate a team that plays ‘under’; To the contrary, a consistent ‘over’ wager is one that’s seeing lower numbers than the mean.
My bold call of the week: The 49ers, last season’s co-top ‘under’ team at 5-11 O/U, are set to be a sharp ‘over’ wager this season. San Francisco plays in the NFL’s weakest division, and the offense should find its stride now that Alex Smith, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree have had time to jell with a new spread offense.
On the other side of the ball, keep in mind the Niners hit above their weight last season. San Francisco ranked 15th in total defense, but were fourth in points allowed.
When you think of the Jets and Ravens, you think of defense, right? Of course you do. Now, when you think of defense in the NFL, does your brain immediately tell you to bet the low side on totals? If so, welcome to Squaresville, USA, population: A Bunch. The betting public will lay down hard-earned money on Jets and Ravens 'unders' in 2010, helping bookies across the land to make the payments on their vacation homes.
Picking NFL teams to consistently play ‘over’ the total is a difficult proposition. Last season, only nine of the league’s 32 teams cashed the ‘over’ more often than the ‘under’.
Thing is, the task is even harder than last season’s standings lead us to believe. Of the nine ‘over’ teams in 2009, three of them were 8-7-1 O/U. A field goal here or there and those squads could have easily been better ‘under’ wagers.
The overall lesson is totals are inflated, because square bettors love scoring, and as a result, they tend to pound the ‘over’ on the betting odds for a given game. Public bettors don’t root for a 10-6 score, and the market reacts accordingly.
In my view, looking to bet the ‘over’ is more about picking spots than it is about following a particular team. There are too many variables at play, and it’s the offseason, so we have no idea how the public is going to react after the first few weeks of action.
A look at last year’s best ‘over’ wagers reveals a slew of teams I’d back to play ‘under’ more often than not this season. The Giants were the best ‘over’ bet in ’09 with an 11-4-1 O/U mark, but they’re likely headed in the other direction.
Beset by a multitude of injuries to their defense last season, the Giants still finished 14th in total defense. Problem is, New York was 30th in scoring defense, allowing opponents to put up 26.7 points per game. That drove up the Giants’ totals (they even fooled oddsmakers, remember), and it won’t happen again with a healthy roster.
Of the six teams that posted healthy ‘over’ records last season, I’d pick the Chiefs to remain in the category. Kansas City was 9-5-2 O/U in ’09, making it the fourth most profitable ‘over’ play in the NFL.
The Chiefs are a mediocre team at best, and that plays into ‘over’ bettors’ hands. With the public downplaying Kansas City, they don’t think of it as a team that can put up points.
That won’t be the case this season with Charlie Weis coming in to run the offense. I’m not talking about fireworks here, but Weis’ arrival coupled with public perception is enough to drive down the total on Chiefs’ games.
One team I like to jump into the ‘over’ column this season is the Jets. Mark Sanchez should take a leap forward in his second season under center, and he’ll have weapons with Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, and Jerricho Cotchery at his disposal.
Also, expect New York’s league-leading defense to take a slight step back. The Jets flew under the radar last season, but other teams – and a tougher schedule – are ready for them. Look for New York to score more points, but to allow more as well.
Sanchez’s career path is eerily similar to that of Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco, and in that vein, look for Baltimore to cash the ‘over’ on a consistent basis this season.
The Ravens should have one of the league’s best defenses this season, but let’s face it: Ray Lewis isn’t getting younger. In addition, Ed Reed is on the PUP list after having hip surgery.
The perception remains of Baltimore as an all-defense, no-offense team. That won’t be the case with Flacco’s development in full swing and Anquan Boldin putting on a Ravens’ jersey.
More points, an aging defense, and low totals due to public perception makes for a sharp ‘over’ wager. Lower totals don’t necessarily indicate a team that plays ‘under’; To the contrary, a consistent ‘over’ wager is one that’s seeing lower numbers than the mean.
My bold call of the week: The 49ers, last season’s co-top ‘under’ team at 5-11 O/U, are set to be a sharp ‘over’ wager this season. San Francisco plays in the NFL’s weakest division, and the offense should find its stride now that Alex Smith, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree have had time to jell with a new spread offense.
On the other side of the ball, keep in mind the Niners hit above their weight last season. San Francisco ranked 15th in total defense, but were fourth in points allowed.