Cutting your losses in a martingale chase?

betyuda · 06-22-10, 09:36 PM

I agree, it its a 6 game chase, i would only risk 1/2 a unit from the start. But at most, I usually try to stick with 3-4 chases at most.

illfuuptn · 06-22-10, 09:49 PM

You're an idiot

betyuda · 06-22-10, 09:53 PM

thanks illfuuptn. appreciate your comment

sharpcat · 06-22-10, 10:03 PM

I wonder why books do not ban players when suspected of using martingale chase systems??????

every person in america would be rich if they only knew of this goldmine

Sawyer · 06-23-10, 07:30 AM

Chase max. 3 games. Then even if you lose, damage won't be critical.

rki999 · 06-23-10, 08:43 AM

poker_dummy101 · 06-23-10, 08:53 AM

i recommend using play money.. then when you realize it sucks.. start thinking smarter

LostBankroll · 06-23-10, 09:06 AM

I think this can work.

Bet #1 Mets +120 Risk $50 to win $60 (If it loses)...
Bet #2 Angels +110 Risk $100 to win $110 (If it loses)...
Bet #3 A's +125 Risk $200 to win $250

Eventually you gotta pick a winner. by picking teams with + money, you avaoid paying juice and you only double your bets instead of tripling it if you chose a heavy favorite. Start out with lesser amounts say $20. This WILL work because its proven. Now the hard part is just to pick 1 winner. Good Luck.

poker_dummy101 · 06-23-10, 09:09 AM

Originally posted by LostBankroll

This WILL work because its proven.

Its proven?

Sure if you have an unlimited bankroll and a place to bet enough on a game it will work 100% of the time. But then again, if you have an unlimited bankroll wtf are you doing gambling.

LostBankroll · 06-23-10, 09:12 AM

Youre right I forgot to mention that in order to do this you need a phat Bankroll!!!! But yes pokeridiot it is prven to work if done this way.

poker_dummy101 · 06-23-10, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by LostBankroll

I think this can work.

Bet #1 Mets +120 Risk $50 to win $60 (If it loses)...
Bet #2 Angels +110 Risk $100 to win $110 (If it loses)...
Bet #3 A's +125 Risk $200 to win $250

Eventually you gotta pick a winner. by picking teams with + money, you avaoid paying juice and you only double your bets instead of tripling it if you chose a heavy favorite. Start out with lesser amounts say $20. This WILL work because its proven. Now the hard part is just to pick 1 winner. Good Luck.

Originally posted by LostBankroll

Youre right I forgot to mention that in order to do this you need a phat Bankroll!!!! But yes pokeridiot it is prven to work if done this way.

remind me to skip over your posts when it involves reasoning

GRUMPERZ · 06-23-10, 10:01 AM

intelligence around here is at an all time low

Thomas_Garber · 06-23-10, 11:04 AM

Martingale will not work in the long run and it is doomed to fail. It can be tried for fun with a small bankroll for a short period of time but if you rely on it to make consistent profit you will lose. I used the martingale version from www.mrmartingale.com with a $2K bankroll for 3 months. After 3 months I turned the 2k into 6k and I quit the martingale system. Here is there version of the system with set of rules from their page (they have been doing it since 2006 and they had failed session 4 times but still managed a profit of over 2000 units.
Betting System, Picks, Records & Subscription

This system is highly profitable and suitable for bettors with small bankroll who are looking to build their bankroll rapidly. This system requires a 77.06 unit bankroll and brings in a profit of about 20 units each week per series with my picks (that is £200 each week if you are betting £10 per unit and £2000 each week if you are betting £100 per unit). You can expect to double your bankroll every month. I highly suggest that you read the rest of this page before you walk away thinking that this doesn't work because I have made over 2000 units in net profit since I started in 2006. Many who doubted this are now using it after watching me pile up the profit. But if you still don't like this type of betting after reading this page, you can check my Bet of The Day Picks which are simply flat bets of each day's best bet.
I will avoid all mathematical explanation using sequence, series and functions etc in order to make it understandable to everyone--instead I will use simple words and numbers to tell you what exactly to do. In this modified version we will use 2.1 factor after each loss instead of 2 (doubling up) and set the boundary to 6 instead of Infinity (don't think this is just a double of system, read the rules of the system below to find out why this will defy odds and help you win for ever.) Lets say the starting bet amount = 1 Unit = U. Then using 2.1 factor after each loss we get the following sequence of bet amounts:
Bet 1 = U
Bet 2 = U(2.1) = 2.1U
Bet 3 = U(2.1)2 = 4.41U
Bet 4 = U(2.1)3 = 9.26U
Bet 5 = U(2.1)4 = 19.45U
Bet 6 = U(2.1)5 = 40.84U
Total (Bankroll) = U + U(2.1) + U(2.1)2 + U(2.1)3 + U(2.1)4 + U(2.1)5 = 77.06U. Therefore, this system requires a 77.06 Units of bankroll if you are to do 1 unit bets.

Tip for dummies: If you have a certain bankroll (lets say £1000) and want to calculate the starting bet amount, divide the bankroll by 77.06 (so the starting bet amount is 1000/77.06=£12.98). On the other hand, if you want to calculate the required bankroll for a certain starting bet amount, multiply your starting bet amount by 77.06 (for example, if you want to do £15 bets, you would require a bankroll of £15*77.06= £1155.9)

A failed session (6 bet losing streak) would cost us 77.06 units. Therefore, a successful session is when we gain 77.06 units without losing 6 in a row.

Rules of the system:

Bet only on events with 1.91 (-110) or better odds. Do not randomly pick games with 1.91 (-110) or better odds. Always handicap the game and find the edge--play the side that has a win estimation of 50% or better. Best way to maximize profit is to bet on good underdog odds with a win estimation of 50% or better. My picks for this system have average odds of about 2.40 (+140) and because of this the system is highly successful.
All bet amounts are for "risk", i.e. use the unit amount given in the bet table (bet1=1unit, bet 2=2.1units, bet3=4.41units, bet4=9.26units, bet5=19.45units, bet6=40.84units) regardless of the odd.
Bet on the next game only after you are sure about the result of the previous bet. Whenever a bet wins, the next bet amount is bet 1 (1 unit). Whenever a bet is cancelled or voided, repeat the same bet amount on the next bet. Whenever a bet loses, use the progression until you win. If you ever encounter a six game losing streak, start over with a new bankroll.
Do not change your unit amount until you have completed a successful session. For example, if you start at 1 unit = £10 with a bankroll of £770.60, you should remain at 1 unit = £10 until your bankroll is doubled (1 successful session). Now that you have double the capital, you may increase your unit size to £20 or you may withdraw half your earnings and increase your unit size to £15. Once you start with the increased unit size and bankroll, you should wait until you complete a successful session with the new unit size and bankroll before increasing it again. It is recommended that you select a desired unit amount and stick to it forever instead of increasing it after each successful session--increasing strategy is for those who don't have big bankroll to start right away at big unit size. It is highly recommended that you go no more than 1 unit = £100.
Play only at safe and reliable sportsbooks. I highly recommend using Pinnacle and Bookmaker when you play my picks because both of those books grade wagers really quickly. They also have the best odds and the highest betting limits in the industry.
Never randomly pick a game. Always cap your games and play only valuable bets with good odds.

Series 1 Record
Total Picks: 2517
Win-Loss-Void: 1230-1184-103 (50.95%)
Number of failures: 5 (-385.3 units)
System Record: 1230-5 (99.60%)
Net Profit: +2859.35 units

Series 2 Record:
Total Picks: 2205
Win-Loss-Void 1084-1042-79 (50.99%)
Number of failures: 4 (-308.24 units)
System Record: 1084-4 (99.63%)
Net Profit: +2110.52 units

betyuda · 06-23-10, 11:40 AM

Hey thomas, was interested in their service, but how do i get in touch with them?? I tried the email address on the site, but always get an error. thanks

LostBankroll · 06-23-10, 12:06 PM

I said "It should work" because most of you punks here may not be able to do just that. Pick 1 winner.

warriorfan707 · 06-23-10, 12:15 PM

Originally posted by Sawyer

Chase max. 3 games. Then even if you lose, damage won't be critical.

The loss of a 3 game chase will be offset in the long run by the accumulation of positive units utilizing the chase.

If you don't martingale out of control this can work.

EasyHustlin · 10-02-10, 09:38 PM

Generally speaking, Martingale is very, very poor way to bet. In my opinion the Labouchere method is much safer and profitable in the long run. It's still chasing though.

OmgUrMom · 10-02-10, 09:46 PM

funny stuff

OmgUrMom · 10-02-10, 09:46 PM

i chase all the time but at least i haven't delusioned myself into thinking its a winning long-term strategy

Flight · 10-02-10, 10:24 PM

If you chase with doubles, your bet size will be 2^n, where n is the length of the chase streak:
1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512

10 games in, you are betting 512 units. Assuming $100 bets, you are betting $51,200.
6 games in you are betting $3,200. (not even accounting for vig).

I routinely lose 6 games in a row, it happens to me practically every season.

For more on this, you really need to study the streak calculator, understanding the probability behind it. Most think it's impossible to streak more than 4 in a row, however this is gambler's fallacy, and streaks are very common.

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting+tools/streak+calculator.aspx

Enter 100 bets and a streak of 6. You will be astounded at the likelihood of a long losing streak (or a long winning streak) happening over the course of 100 bets. (54%). This is purely by chance, and has nothing to do with handicapper's success or failure. Many posters will "go on fire" and start posting their plays only to find they are right back where they started. According to probability, it happens very frequently because of sample size growing large (ie gambler's don't quit, they keep wagering, making thousands of bets per year, going on streaks very frequently.)

EasyHustlin · 10-02-10, 11:41 PM

Originally posted by Flight

If you chase with doubles, your bet size will be 2^n, where n is the length of the chase streak: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512 10 games in, you are betting 512 units. Assuming $100 bets, you are betting $51,200. 6 games in you are betting $3,200. (not even accounting for vig). I routinely lose 6 games in a row, it happens to me practically every season. For more on this, you really need to study the streak calculator, understanding the probability behind it. Most think it's impossible to streak more than 4 in a row, however this is gambler's fallacy, and streaks are very common. http://www.sbrforum.com/betting+tool...alculator.aspx Enter 100 bets and a streak of 6. You will be astounded at the likelihood of a long losing streak (or a long winning streak) happening over the course of 100 bets. (54%). This is purely by chance, and has nothing to do with handicapper's success or failure. Many posters will "go on fire" and start posting their plays only to find they are right back where they started. According to probability, it happens very frequently because of sample size growing large (ie gambler's don't quit, they keep wagering, making thousands of bets per year, going on streaks very frequently.)

According to that calculator, there is a 100% chance that you will go on a 2 game win/losing streak after betting 100 games. Common sense begs to differ.

Jnas · 10-03-10, 06:30 AM

It may work a few times at first but will eventually bust you out.