1. #1
    lakerboy
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    Chargers line looks fishy

    Why are they only -3?

  2. #2
    KVB
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    I think the line could drop. Might be at -3 because the pickem is fishy. Answer could be in the underlying numbers.

    I have a close game here with Chargers winning 24-23 in my stacking percentages forecast. Various forecast are close to that.

    That non-predictive public gauge actually shows Atl winning 27-24, that's what I think the public thinks, even if the public never even thought of a score prediction.

    My info, so far, shows Falcons getting the action at home, especially overall money on the +3 and while we still have tomorrow morning, feels like a situation where this line could drop to -2.5. If that happens I feel like a Chargers blowout could ensue.

    But that's speculation, we have to see tomorrow. Tough to come off of the 3.

    Falcons announced the starting CB and Guard are out, they didn't practice this week so that's probably baked in. Chargers also have news baked in, but it's a bit worse. They have a few guys out, and called up two wide receivers from the practice squad: John Hightower and Keelan Doss.

    Chargers may not be the easiest sell right now.

  3. #3
    EddieMusher
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    Falcons defense looked really bad last week.

  4. #4
    TheGoldenGoose
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    According to the money coming in the Chargers -3 Line is correct.
    Not a playable game for me as both teams have a Swiss Cheese defence and anything can happen.

  5. #5
    cincinnatikid513
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    chargers missing some wrs

  6. #6
    mackave
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    razor sharp nfl line

  7. #7
    Enkhbat
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    Donald Parham Jr, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are OUT.

  8. #8
    Ratpack
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    Atlanta 6-2 against the spread chargers coming east and have been horrible last few weeks. What did you think the line was going to be

  9. #9
    jjgold
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    its like most nfl games turnovers decide it and nobody can handicap turnovers

    Books laugh at NFL side bettors your betting into a perfect line

    Bet 1 Million on game and they laugh

  10. #10
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ratpack View Post
    Atlanta 6-2 against the spread chargers coming east and have been horrible last few weeks. What did you think the line was going to be
    Chargers are off a bye. -4 was okay IMO.

  11. #11
    JAKEPEAVY21
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Chargers are off a bye. -4 was okay IMO.
    Trying to figure out the Chargers is impossible.

    Year in and year out, they can literally beat or lose to any team and you never know which version will show up.

    My gut is telling me Atlanta wins outright today with Allen and Williams out.

    Looks like Cordarelle Patterson is back from injury as well.

  12. #12
    mikmik
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    Imo gun to my head I’d go with the better qb with Herbie

  13. #13
    lakerboy
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    This is a huge game for the Chargers season. They can't lose in places like this.

  14. #14
    JAKEPEAVY21
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    This is a huge game for the Chargers season. They can't lose in places like this.
    They got blown out of the water by Jaguars earlier in the year and by the Texans late last season. They routinely lose to teams that they should beat on paper.

    I don't trust Staley to do anything with the extra preparation time.

    Smith is a much better coach, the Falcons seem to buy in and play hard for him.

    Not betting this game but gun to my head, I'd take Atl.

  15. #15
    jjgold
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    I love all the analysis. Itís really funny come on guys youíre all smarter than this .Itís a coin flip.

  16. #16
    pavyracer
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    Falcons offense has no injuries. CP is coming back to lead the RBs. If Chargers can't stop the run the Falcons will score at will and control the clock.

  17. #17
    firedawg
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    Falcons are better than people think

  18. #18
    Jowframs
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    Got the +3.5 earlier in the week

  19. #19
    johnnyvegas13
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    Bolts win here

  20. #20
    firedawg
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnyvegas13 View Post
    Bolts win here
    Well there you have it

  21. #21
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnyvegas13 View Post
    Bolts win here
    Take the wood. 3 ducks is a gift here.

  22. #22
    Goat Milk
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Why are they only -3?
    Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both out. Chargers will be relying on a few practice squad guys. Cordorell Patterson also back. Those ATL have sucked horribly while he was out, producing horrible ypc stats on the ground in his absence.

  23. #23
    pablo222
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    Over looks good

  24. #24
    Kermit
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    Quote Originally Posted by pablo222 View Post
    Over looks good
    I like it over 53 at +150.

  25. #25
    KVB
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    As suspected, the line pulled off the 3 to 2.5.

    It really does make sense, I’d say my post explains a lot.

    Good Luck whatever you decide.


  26. #26
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    ...feels like a situation where this line could drop to -2.5. If that happens I feel like a Chargers blowout could ensue..
    Chargers a short -1 or -1.5 fave 2nd half.

    They tell me Southpoint was offering ATL +1.5 (-120).

    Atl still getting the love in the number.

    Oh boy.


  27. #27
    d2bets
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    Late to this post, but the very late move was on the Chargers. Moved from -2.5 to a firm -3 very late. I grabbed LAC -2.5-110 and -140 based on that.

  28. #28
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Late to this post, but the very late move was on the Chargers. Moved from -2.5 to a firm -3 very late. I grabbed LAC -2.5-110 and -140 based on that.
    Vast majority of houses kept it at 2.5 with that extra price and a couple big guys blinked to 3 so I definitely see how we can convert, just about, to make it a move to or better to say towards the -3 late.

    But really, if you think about the optics, what we saw was a drop off the 3 since last night and than the, as expected after a pull off 3, the pressure to put it back. But just the pressure, not the force.

    Optics.

    Let's cash.


  29. #29
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Vast majority of houses kept it at 2.5 with that extra price and a couple big guys blinked to 3 so I definitely see how we can convert, just about, to make it a move to or better to say towards the -3 late.

    But really, if you think about the optics, what we saw was a drop off the 3 since last night and than the, as expected after a pull off 3, the pressure to put it back. But just the pressure, not the force.

    Optics.

    Let's cash.

    Bookmaker closed, I believe, at -3-112.

  30. #30
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Bookmaker closed, I believe, at -3-112.
    Yup, BM and Circa were the big guys I was talking about.

    We know where it should have been, but the optics across the market were a little different.

    I think it's somethinbg to note and it's a good thing for us.

  31. #31
    KRIT
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    Sean Payton going to coach Chargers next season?

  32. #32
    lakerboy
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    Dead on

  33. #33
    d2bets
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    That's why you take -2.5 and not -3.

  34. #34
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    That's why you take -2.5 and not -3.
    Wasn't the blowout I thought we might see second half, but all we needed was a 3 point win.

    Good Stuff.


  35. #35
    jjgold
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    Right on the number your betting into perfect lines like I said

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