Anyone wager these inherent type senario's???

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  • veriableodds
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 08-22-17
    • 5093

    #1
    Anyone wager these inherent type senario's???
    Without talking specifics of or about models, bankroll management, ect ect
    This is a simple basic form of +ev? Or is it not?
    1. Games that are typically wagerd on with no spreads like mlb, hockey, soccer ect. Only taking teams with a minimum 40% chance of winning.
    Team-A model says team-A has a 47.2% chance of winning with odds of +129. That would mean your expected value would be 8%, even though your break even is achieved at .94?? conclusion being if I bet this same scenario risking .47 each time over 100 wagers risking 47 total my ev would be 8% of 47= 3.76 ev profit???

    2. Same model chance as above for winning but the line is +105 which doesn't come close to beak even so therefore it's a no bet?? conclusion wagers appear to only have value based off the payout the line is offering??

    3. Spread games like NBA, NCAAF, NFL, ect ect
    Using the typical 91% (.91) payout . Team whatever, whoever has a 46% chance of winning model says they should loose by 2, but they are getting +6 from the books giving a value of 4 points. If the total -over/under- of a game is say 200 , would that now be a 54% chance of winning for team-a 46+ the % of perceived points in game?? 54% + .91 payout giving a +ev of 3.14%????

    4. Totals,. Models suggest score of 8.75 while the line is 10 so would that not then be 62.5% for game to go under given the 1.25 discrepancy?? So that would +ev of 19.3% (62.5 +.91%) payout????

    Any thoughts on these, does anybody wager like this??
  • pologq
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 10-07-12
    • 19899

    #2
    do you strictly bet based on formula? just asking
    Comment
    • Roscoe_Word
      SBR MVP
      • 02-28-12
      • 3999

      #3
      I'd say if your model calculates the probable winning % accurately, then your +EV perspective (what I'd call an overlay) would grind away a profit.

      I guess the key word is "IF".

      If that's the case, you might have found the Holy Grail. (Don't know if Monty Python's boys were successful.)

      I tried the (+EV) or (OVERLAY) method which, needless to say, got croaked.

      My rudimentary programming skills were no match for the books.

      My humble opinion: This "thing of ours" is 60% art and 40% science.
      Comment
      • veriableodds
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 08-22-17
        • 5093

        #4
        Sorry guys I absolutely just have no extra time these days.
        Really just using theory, mixed with league trends . If I just took the 50ish 60% ish wagers that not only wouldn't be worth the time or money, as there would be hardly any wagers. No I don't just wager on the formula, I data crunch looking for discrepancy been doing it for years. Hardly been doing anything wagering last 3 years. Got alot of these ideas from the oddjam YouTube videos where they beat the pinnacle on the lines
        Comment
        • pologq
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 10-07-12
          • 19899

          #5
          it is interesting what you posted. makes me think.
          Comment
          • Nate rasta
            SBR MVP
            • 05-30-22
            • 2952

            #6
            I always feel like I have a better angle on my local teams. Local radio local sports news ect.
            Comment
            • jjgold
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 07-20-05
              • 388189

              #7
              killer sports you can make your own trend models if you learn sdql formulas and actually not that hard
              Comment
              • pologq
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 10-07-12
                • 19899

                #8
                Originally posted by Nate rasta
                I always feel like I have a better angle on my local teams. Local radio local sports news ect.
                same. good point too.
                Comment
                • veriableodds
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 08-22-17
                  • 5093

                  #9
                  using strictly +ev only elimination of any + line for teams that do not have atleast a 40%+ chance of winning
                  oct 13 nhl based on simple models
                  Philadelphia 51.2% @ +120 = 12.64 value
                  dallas 46.4 @ +120 = 2.08 value
                  objective is to wager only positive outcomes
                  will post these atleast i can keep track
                  Comment
                  • Waterstpub87
                    SBR MVP
                    • 09-09-09
                    • 4102

                    #10
                    The thing about "I follow my local teams", I have an edge, is that is actually a lot harder than building a model.

                    I really have no clue how people win without either : 1. Math Modelling, 2.More of a trading approach(chasing steam, following odds ect.)

                    When you are incorporating qualitative information, like reports of people not getting along in the locker room, the key question is how much is that worth? and is that information already incorporated. If you weight it too much, you introduce more error than information, too little, its same. On top of that, you can't have a decent sample size.

                    My brain does not work that way.

                    On the original question, you miss a lot of value on large dogs. Consider the difference between something at 50% being off 4% (54% chance priced at 50%), vs something at 20%(24%chance priced at 20%). Many times in sports betting, or other markets, things that are low probability have a tendency to be priced less efficiently.

                    Refusing to touch anything under a 40% strikes me as someone who is afraid of bankroll (No offense intended). If you're well capitalized, you can lose a few in a row for those eventually large hits.

                    Another point while I am thinking of it. There is a behavioral effect on the largest dog on the board for a day. Many unsophisticated bettors tend to bet the largest favorite on the board, and include this in parlays, which I've always assumed would cause the largest dog to be inefficiently priced, as there is "artificial" demand on the other side.
                    Last edited by Waterstpub87; 10-12-22, 10:37 PM.
                    Comment
                    • jjgold
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 07-20-05
                      • 388189

                      #11
                      unabated odds gives you legit edges on their screen

                      Not saying it works but this method better than any
                      Comment
                      • veriableodds
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 08-22-17
                        • 5093

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Waterstpub87
                        The thing about "I follow my local teams", I have an edge, is that is actually a lot harder than building a model.

                        I really have no clue how people win without either : 1. Math Modelling, 2.More of a trading approach(chasing steam, following odds ect.)

                        When you are incorporating qualitative information, like reports of people not getting along in the locker room, the key question is how much is that worth? and is that information already incorporated. If you weight it too much, you introduce more error than information, too little, its same. On top of that, you can't have a decent sample size.

                        My brain does not work that way.

                        On the original question, you miss a lot of value on large dogs. Consider the difference between something at 50% being off 4% (54% chance priced at 50%), vs something at 20%(24%chance priced at 20%). Many times in sports betting, or other markets, things that are low probability have a tendency to be priced less efficiently.

                        Refusing to touch anything under a 40% strikes me as someone who is afraid of bankroll (No offense intended). If you're well capitalized, you can lose a few in a row for those eventually large hits.

                        Another point while I am thinking of it. There is a behavioral effect on the largest dog on the board for a day. Many unsophisticated bettors tend to bet the largest favorite on the board, and include this in parlays, which I've always assumed would cause the largest dog to be inefficiently priced, as there is "artificial" demand on the other side.

                        Good points. this is just one angle/system/play/investment ect ect. the reason for no dogs under 40% is because it has no value sure dogs win but not long term the % chance of winning is a long-term calculation. All the other points your making can be each categorized as its own system. (if a nhl dog had a 43% chance, the line is +125 there is no value you would be in the red 3.25) focus here is long term profits. All your points are also great angles. I will post totals also when i see a goal+ adv compared to line but have not seen so far. for the 14th i see one play Montreal/41.5@+150
                        Comment
                        • str
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 01-12-09
                          • 11516

                          #13
                          Originally posted by jjgold
                          unabated odds gives you legit edges on their screen

                          Not saying it works but this method better than any
                          OK. Wait.

                          You just used the phrase " unabated odds gives you legit edges on their screen" .

                          And all I see in my mind is the video of you grabbing your crouch in cutoff sweat pants.

                          You're the greatest JJ.
                          Comment
                          • veriableodds
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 08-22-17
                            • 5093

                            #14
                            Originally posted by jjgold
                            unabated odds gives you legit edges on their screen

                            Not saying it works but this method better than any

                            Original coach just wow
                            Comment
                            • veriableodds
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 08-22-17
                              • 5093

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Waterstpub87
                              The thing about "I follow my local teams", I have an edge, is that is actually a lot harder than building a model.

                              I really have no clue how people win without either : 1. Math Modelling, 2.More of a trading approach(chasing steam, following odds ect.)

                              When you are incorporating qualitative information, like reports of people not getting along in the locker room, the key question is how much is that worth? and is that information already incorporated. If you weight it too much, you introduce more error than information, too little, its same. On top of that, you can't have a decent sample size.

                              My brain does not work that way.

                              On the original question, you miss a lot of value on large dogs. Consider the difference between something at 50% being off 4% (54% chance priced at 50%), vs something at 20%(24%chance priced at 20%). Many times in sports betting, or other markets, things that are low probability have a tendency to be priced less efficiently.

                              Refusing to touch anything under a 40% strikes me as someone who is afraid of bankroll (No offense intended). If you're well capitalized, you can lose a few in a row for those eventually large hits.

                              Another point while I am thinking of it. There is a behavioral effect on the largest dog on the board for a day. Many unsophisticated bettors tend to bet the largest favorite on the board, and include this in parlays, which I've always assumed would cause the largest dog to be inefficiently priced, as there is "artificial" demand on the other side.

                              Admiration for the ideas going forward, keep up the good thinking. Use the force
                              Comment
                              • Waterstpub87
                                SBR MVP
                                • 09-09-09
                                • 4102

                                #16
                                Originally posted by veriableodds
                                Good points. this is just one angle/system/play/investment ect ect. the reason for no dogs under 40% is because it has no value sure dogs win but not long term the % chance of winning is a long-term calculation. All the other points your making can be each categorized as its own system. (if a nhl dog had a 43% chance, the line is +125 there is no value you would be in the red 3.25) focus here is long term profits. All your points are also great angles. I will post totals also when i see a goal+ adv compared to line but have not seen so far. for the 14th i see one play Montreal/41.5@+150
                                I hope you found it useful.

                                I disagree. Caring about the winning % of a single game is short-sighted thinking, again no offense intended. Its a question of how much value you generate over the bets you make. I would argue betting large dogs long term would be easier to generate value. Consider the example I gave. A 4% difference in 20% generates a 20% hold, a 4% difference at 50% gives 8%. Unless the probability scales, a similar mispricing will yield much more on underdogs.

                                I'm not trying to sell you on anything. I genuinely hope your system does well, and you make money. Personally, I get much more a rush when I rip them off for a large dog.
                                Comment
                                • TommieGunshot
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 03-27-12
                                  • 1586

                                  #17
                                  1. Yes, an 8% edge

                                  2. A -3% edge.

                                  3. It depends on the probability of the favorite winning by exactly 2 to 6 points. The edge will be far more than 3%

                                  4. It depends on the probability of the score landing on exactly 9 or 10. A 19% is probably close.

                                  For three and four, I always think it is best to use historical data. In this case "best" may not be the most accurate, but the best combination of accuracy and speed.
                                  Comment
                                  • veriableodds
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 08-22-17
                                    • 5093

                                    #18
                                    see post 9, and 12 has picks will grade them as 1u risk
                                    philly, and dallas both won on the 13th +2.2u

                                    Montreal/41.5@+150 is tonite 14th
                                    15th Vancouver/57.2%/-120/+4.67
                                    vegas/59.7/-135/+3.87
                                    chicago/49.9/+145/+22
                                    no totals as of yet
                                    Comment
                                    • stake1
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 12-19-18
                                      • 18116

                                      #19
                                      interesting stuff, models are great if you have a bankroll parlayed with strict money management. most guys are chasers and blow it all up
                                      Comment
                                      • slewfan
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 10-01-15
                                        • 15753

                                        #20
                                        The only numbers play I ever experienced as universally successful was counting cards in blackjack. Single deck, double deck and 4 deck shoe.

                                        Sports betting's first hurdle is overcoming the vig. At the end of the season, this can be substantial. Whatever system you use after that, good luck.
                                        Comment
                                        • veriableodds
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 08-22-17
                                          • 5093

                                          #21
                                          #the 13th should be +2.4u I wrote 2.2
                                          october 14th play lost -1u / t=1.4
                                          the 15th was 2-1 chi, vegas won. Vnc lost (+4.19 -3 = 1.19) total= +2.59

                                          so +2.59u heading into the 17th
                                          nhl
                                          nyr/61.5/@-210/=+2.86 of value
                                          lak/55.1/@-105/+7.44
                                          car/67.9/@-165/+9.45
                                          no totals yet
                                          Comment
                                          • veriableodds
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 08-22-17
                                            • 5093

                                            #22
                                            18th plays
                                            vnc/51.4/+110/7.94
                                            bst/56.4/-105/9.98
                                            nsh/61/-150/1.87

                                            so im not going to be able to keep up with these,so when i can i will update and add picks consider the plays just spot plays
                                            Comment
                                            • veriableodds
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 08-22-17
                                              • 5093

                                              #23
                                              17th and 18 plays 3-3 (5.04 - 6.0u = -0.96u) (+2.59 - -0.96= +1.63

                                              19th
                                              stl/62.5/@-129/+11 value
                                              Comment
                                              • beefcake
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 11-26-09
                                                • 14029

                                                #24
                                                I like the way you think odds.Slot of us stiffs are just in it for the fun and have 0 time to grind out a profit.More power to you if you do.Good luck!
                                                Comment
                                                • JohnGalt2341
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 12-31-09
                                                  • 9138

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by beefcake
                                                  I like the way you think odds.Slot of us stiffs are just in it for the fun and have 0 time to grind out a profit.More power to you if you do.Good luck!
                                                  I concur. When I first discovered SBR, I figured around half the threads would be similar to this one. Not quite.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • veriableodds
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 08-22-17
                                                    • 5093

                                                    #26
                                                    the 20th
                                                    nhl
                                                    wsh/56.7/+100/13.4
                                                    az/43.4/+145/6.33
                                                    bst/70.2/-195/6v
                                                    nyi/63.6/-126/13.8
                                                    car/50.8/+105/4.14
                                                    sj/nyr under 6.5/-115/18.55v - model shows 5.62 score giving a 63.4% under shot
                                                    Comment
                                                    • veriableodds
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 08-22-17
                                                      • 5093

                                                      #27
                                                      So all the information needed to wager this -strategy- is in this thread no reason to update/keep record.
                                                      tonite would be nhl/minnesota/44.5/+135/4.57.. for the same game model shows 6.04 goals on the total line is 5.5 ov/un
                                                      Comment
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