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I dont know if it is an overreaction though. Like obvious its at -2 now but if Booker is out for a long time(which based on his reaction last night) he is I would think this series is in big jeopardy for the suns and the low line is right where it should be. They know they have zero shot at winning at a championship without Booker.Originally Posted by KVB
Booker news likely still in the air at the time.
Pickem and -1 an opening over reaction. The bettors didn't put it there.
The bettors are massaging the line as we speak.
The thing is hamstrung can linger
might not get clear cut news here
The Pelicans are gonna give them problems. They have a good roster and they aren't scared. The suns don't get rebounds. All they do is shoot jumpers.
Don't forget the Warriors always get breaks to get to the finals.
Maybe, Lake. But look at how WHITE HOT Pelicans were last game. No way they shoot that well again.
I appreciate readers of this post pre edit, before Sharon came through, granting my request at the end of about replying. Thank you.The market is bullshit right now too...
...Doesn't mean everything, it's a game of cat and mouse...its also still a game of probabilities....
But that's not why I'm here.
Every story has a preceding moment and, eventually a following moment.
Last night was a very high profile moment in the NBA and those who won have a fatter wallet and more confidence. The market will reflect this. Enter the game of cat and mouse, the game where probabilites try to catch up.
Tonight we have two games where the books are taking a position. They are happily taking a majority of one sided action in these games tonight without adjusting the lines. Take your pick, folks, or be patient and step away.
For a market analyst, the choices often come in two's. For the books, that's how they like it.
The most exposed is Brooklyn on both spread and ml. This may become the highest volume game as well, I can report back in later about that. The bettors are hitting Brooklyn hard that line, at 3.5 should blink down, but it doesn't. Still plenty of time.
But there is alignment. Sharp percentage forecasts have a Boston win, along with the non predictive public gauge, giving Boston a 7 point win. Contrarain traders are with them.
Philly is exposed on the spread, heavy action on them and the market implies that the market traders are opting for Toronto tonight. Thing is, like the other game, the public may be in line with those traders.
In terms of probabilites, these alignment do not bode well for the traders and public.
A range of sharp Forecast have Philly winning this game by 3 to 6 points and evidence shows this line should be higher. Market analyists, and those winning last night, will be bolstered to lean Toronto here.
The non predicitve public gauge shows a 109-108 Toronto win.
We've seen -2 "reverse line move" to -1.5 in the market early.
In my opinion, the market is selling Toronto here. Win or lose, they are short odds and not a good bet. That said, it's a Toronto or pass situation for the market analyst, a Philly play for the advantage bettors.
Finally we have the 10 point line again. This game is actually more split than the others. Unsophisticated bettors saw a 10 point upset last night, they will shoot for it tonight. Higher up the totem pole you see a lot of sentiment for Milwaukee here.
The public is reacting to the upset last night and it's may very well be the least likely line to really blink. The Milwaukee spread seems to be taking a lot of bigger bets, bigger money.
The last trading hour will be interesting to see as more information comes in.
Since I started writing this the I can say that the volume on Brooklyn and Boston could be high enough, and with a blink, or maybe not, the ml number could be good enough to take Boston ML.
So what's the play?
Boston ML looking like a decent moneyline. There's enough there in alignment to throw off some to pass, and it becomes the least likely play that those emboldened yesterday will buy. You can even bring in the story, the narrative. Last game was close. Very close.
Those hip to Boston in the market sense are greedy, and taking the spread. The public gauge calls for the spread. The public doesn't generally look for value in the moneyline when there is margin in the spread. They are not usually that astute.
Nobody wants the Boston Celtics moneyline, it might even get cheaper. In this situation, it's a good bet.
This my opinion and involves a direct follow up from last night, and takes into account forecasts and market activity obtained from a number of sources. I wanted to demonstrate that there is a cat and mouse game, levels of a totem pole, and that quantifiable value can be obtained by know the market participants. By understanding where the market is, and where it "should be" at times. The concept of things coming in "two's" or "pairs" will be revisited, I promise.
I will update information as I get it. But it won't be a play by play like last night...lol.
I hope this was a good read.
Don't worry, Sharon isn't walking through this post.
i dont think the booker news is in the air. I think its being put out there as "being evaluated" but look at Booker after it happened. That doesnt look like a guy that thinks hes coming back any time soon. Its like Leonard last year when they said he had a "sprained knee" even though then it came out after that he told all the clippers after it happened he was done and that he needed knee surgery. They try to hide injuries in the playoffs but i think the books know because they see the little nuggets of information or have better access to inside the locker room
Probably not but the suns can't get rebounds on the offensive end and they shot 50%.
The line could move to Phoe +3, it won't matter.
It was still an overreaction by the originators.
It was done intentionally, to gain an early phoenix base.
They know this isn't as easy as it used to be, the dynamic of the game is different now. This is how markets are created.
Volume is very important so the books will use a myriad of techniques to increase trades, on purpose.
This was one of them.
I mentioned things come it pair's.
Since Gold wouldn't answer the question about the T'wolve's comeback, let's see how he does on this...
Does JJ Gold get his two pick parlay here?
Parlays are good if you go 0-2 or 2-0, it's when they fall 1-1 that makes them bad.
This is wholly relevant to my discussion in this thread.
I think he loses Boston ML. The other game is too tough to be pre game. Gotta see how the refs are calling the action against Embid. If they are giving him the fouls Toronto wont be able to stay with them. But if the refs swallow their whistles ala Jokic vs Warriors, Toronto can take it. I think its a better live bet though once thats establishedI mentioned things come it pair's.
Since Gold wouldn't answer the question about the T'wolve's comeback, let's see how he does on this...
Does JJ Gold get his two pick parlay here?
Parlays are good if you go 0-2 or 2-0, it's when they fall 1-1 that makes them bad.
This is wholly relevant to my discussion in this thread.
To bring it back to yesterday's strategy let me say that if we were in this same situation, but there was a bigger number on Toronto, this would be a situation where we could buy Toronto pregame on the moneyline and look to sell back after an early or late lead.
An attempt to get both teams as dogs.
I do think this will still happen, both teams as dogs, but the trap the trader tries to get into is to take a position in a short Toronto number.
He might, might, win the battle, but he will lose the war.
It is a pitfall for sure and you will see over and over again.
-150 such a barrier on the Boston ML.
Tight markets like peer to peer exchanges, like matchbook for example, can show their true value in these times.
Volume is healthy and continuous for Brooklyn/Celtics, the market position remains the same.
KVB took this thead to a hole-nuthu-level
Philly continues to get hit on the spread.
Word in some "circles" is that Toronto is the sharp play. Is that a cat's head starting to peek out of the bag?
What about he main stream media? Anyone hyping Toronto yet?
Put your ear to the ground when you are assessing the markets. If you keep track of your bets and why you made them, including your ear to the ground, you can learn a lot about the ebb and flow of the markets.
If you don't track, you rely on a subjectively selective memory. That is risky.
While a position is being taken in Toronto by the market, from the total pool of money, there is still give and take. The books may splitting two sharp groups of market pariticipants here.
Can you pick up what I'm putting down? We are profiling the sharpest of the market players, on both sides of this game.
Volume high in Boston.
Looks like the books are holding their line, even showing more "RLM" trades on Boston. BOL going from 3 to 3.5. They are maintaing their position.
They are relentless. They just don't want to make that Boston moneyline attractive, even though nobody wants it. It's like they want it that way.
Philly -1.5 ticking to -2. Not much of a blink, but it's still a move to a bucket. We get to see the first game go off for an hour, perhaps a full half of game play, before game two starts.
The first game, for traders, will have an extra important moment tonight...the moment the Philly/Toronto game tips off.
These things come in pairs.
I have a duty to report something.
Information integrity is important and sometimes information, from Vegas, the congolmerates, and offshore, can be held up.
Suddenly, there was a change in the spread information, not moneyline, on the Brooklyn/Celtics game. This was very, very likely NOT the product of late money, but explains the spread a bit.
Information was indeed held on just what kind of money was coming on the Boston spread. They were, without a doubt, not letting us know just how much Boston spread money was being absorbed.
I can see that money now. Those who have followed before know this can happen, and at key times.
This high volume game exhibitied the super bowl effect whereby we see moneyline bets and money on the dog, with spread money trying to take the favorite.
This is why the Boston moneyline was being such a bitch, and BOL's late blink.
The analysis on the moneyline, fortunately does not change.
But my information sure did. In an effort for transparency and honesty, I am letting this be known.
It's a tough racket, and the books work hard to make it tougher for even the most connected, espiecially in the big games.
This has happened before, and will happen again.
The probability of a comeback is factor.
Because of the duality of the the day, and the schedule, the probability of a Celtic comeback on such an early Nets lead is, as you might imagine, pretty high.
This effect on the LIVE line can be found by regressions, as well.
Not planning to go play by play, but I will say the LIVE market on the moneyline, both ways, will inflate and trade more actively until the second game tips off.
Those paying attention, especially over a period of time, will see the nature of the market shift.
These factors, schedule and number of games with positions being taken, are worth noting when analysing the LIVE markets.
With the spread/ml action like it is, and the game start like it is, a Boston win and not cover is certainly in the cards here.
Again, not giving the direct probabilities here, but showing the scenarios that bring such probabilities.
Ok, that's not cool, let me offer some numbers.
Let me say that Boston +200 or close is well worth it here.
+185 maybe or so, the +170's will even get snatched up, but I suggest a cushion if you are in it for the long haul.
But the market will be hard pressed to give that to us even with and this Nets early lead of 10 points and this situation will likely change by the end of the first quarter.
An example, a post I am repeating in this thread, where it belongs...
This is not a surprise to me.
Sometimes travelling word can be predicted, sometimes hours or even a day before hand.
There was ample oppportunity to trade Boston this game, from pre game to some very generous and inflated odds. Before the first quarter was over, I even nibbled at +265 early, and bigger numbers later.
But I'll be honest, I waited patiently and sold all of it back with the Nets as dogs. That was the purpose of the money. That was part of the purpose of my posts in this thread.
To put youself in a position to win.
Buying upwared an widdling down opening and closing ml postions with ml dogs, especially when incorporating the pregame lines, is a place that you can attack the market.
You can do this enough to make up for the times you never got to sell back. That didn't happen in our examples over the last two days, but it gives two different illustrations of one of the cornerstones of successful gambling.
Patience. We had to wait all game to get any moneyline sold back, and at times it looke dire. That is short term patience. Also, you have to patient, to get to a point to even open a position. You can't just open any. This is long term patience.
We've all been there, again, no matter your level. You know it's the time, and it loses, you see it again, it loses. The market has a way of giving the early bird it's worm and then "cat and mousing" it back but it's the markets that stretch the better out, stretch him until he's so thin he can't anymore. It can toss you around like a rag doll.
Then his time comes. He sees it, and only wished it was with the funds he had two weeks ago. Like I said, sportsbetting has a way of making you look smarter than you are, and dumber than you are.
Anyway, this can be done at this level of the market. It can tolerate a lot of gamblers bet sizes as well. This is because it's not what they bring, but how they bring. But it is only when you can appreciate what they bring, that you can truly appreciate how they bring it.
I didn't have to sell all my BOS ml back, but you have to think of it like an investment objective, stick to that objective. My LIVE trades were meant to be sold back. I was content with my pre game BOS ml position. You can divide your bankroll even, have some for intended profit, some for your +EV plays. The more serious you treat it, the better you will do.
I hope this thread has been a good read. We got lucky, we had perfect examples through these two days. I was able to give you an idea of what means to have the market sell a position. I laid out the case, talked about travelling word and cats being out of the bag; and wasn't surprised with the Philly comeback.
Both games were misleading, not surprised there either.
I'm not trying to past post here. I don't have all the answers. If I did, there would be no selling back. I am, however, very diverse in how I trade. I also felt these two days had a good chance for nice examples...I have long term patience, and experience.
I'm not just advantage player, I am a market analyst.
I think these posts also gave a good idea of what I mean when I talk about understanding the groups of bettors in the marketplace, understanding the give and take, and understanding some of the techniques that the books use and that get generated by the market itself to guide those bettors.
Understanding the market participants and how to apply it to your own handicapping can open up a whole new set of values for you.
For the future, if you hear me say they are selling a bet, or that nobody wants to buy a bet, think about it. You not only now know what I mean when I say that, but you know what I expect to happen, no matter how extreme it may get.
Remember Sharon, for those lucky enough to see the pre edit self destruct.
I do hope, as long as it was, that this was a good read over these two days. I appreciate the time you took and I hope, for your time, that you got something from it.
Remember to track your bets and why you made them.
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If this were a book, considering these next posts the start of the appendices...lol...
Excellent point, Gold.
From back in the CFL days to the concepts and market adjustments for Contrarian Funds, I have often talked about the trade off you may get by betting later.
First is obvious, if you expect a line to move in your favor and you are reasonably confident in your estimates, you could nibble or just wait.
But more importantly it's about the trade off of information. The closer you get the game time the more informaion you can process. You might trade, in price or line, for that advantage of getting more information. This is reality and is part of the market analyst hat I wear (see Foster Thread that isn't about Foster).
I refer to it as paying for information. Sometimes you have to ask yourself, is it worth it to potentially pay in price, line, vig, all of the above, for gaining the extra information? Sometimes it is. Sometimes you save on all of the above, and get paid to risk gathering more information.
Experience and numbers help guide bettors here. Early advantage bettors might think about it if they are starting to pay attention to the market. Maybe track what would have happened, had you taken in more information.
All bettors have been there already. They've seen the market make a move and cause them to think "Oh, if I just would have waited, or bought this morning." It's part of the way the markets toss us around.
Don't fret, you made the 1. decision you made with the 2. info you had at the 3. time you made it. Whether or not that decision is to pull the trigger or wait, we can all try to improve on all three of those aspects of our game.
Think about it.
Shout out to Lakeshow...
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