1. #1
    RudyRuetigger
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    TO: The guys wanting analysis and reasons for betting a play

    Do not believe the person with reasons for a play



    WHY?


    Because the winning person with a reason....DOESNT WANT YOU TO KNOW THE REASON...hence there is no reason given...if you win and give reasons, everyone will know the reason and bet it without you in the future. you are literally competing against yourself if you do


    A losing bettor will give you a great writeup...because it is all fluff. If that analysis worked, then anyone could look up that stat and form their own plays from them



    No, a winning player does not tell why to bet a game


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  2. #2
    Roger T. Bannon
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    You can tell people how to bet and they will still lose.

  3. #3
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger T. Bannon View Post
    You can tell people how to bet and they will still lose.
    some people have a "model"



    whatever it is, there is a winning formula out there



    and there is absolutely no reason some winning player should write it up for free


    so id just trust someone without a writeup more than someone with one



    because if you have a writeup, you are definitely a loser


    who gives away their secrets???
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  4. #4
    Roger T. Bannon
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    People that use models don't give reasons because they don't have any.

  5. #5
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger T. Bannon View Post
    People that use models don't give reasons because they don't have any.
    their model created it????


    so you trust a guy with reasons posted more than a guy without reasons posted?



    it seems most do and i think that is bs


    only guy with reasons i trust is stevenash in baseball
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  6. #6
    Roger T. Bannon
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    Yes, models are based on math. Modelers do not have the slightest clue why they are betting a game. The math tells them to.

    A handicapper knows why he is betting a game and can tell you but it will do you no good when you try to bet another game.

  7. #7
    KVB
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    If you use a mathemetical model then of course you have reasons, they are built into the model.

    The inputs and relative weightings of the inputs are the reasons for the play, the output is the play.

    If there is one at all.

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  8. #8
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    If you use a mathemetical model then of course you have reasons, they are built into the model.

    The inputs and relative weightings of the inputs are the reasons for the play, the output is the play.

    If there is one at all.
    my point is....you would not POST those reasons
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  9. #9
    jjgold
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    I laugh at write ups

  10. #10
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    I laugh at write ups
    exactly
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  11. #11
    Roger T. Bannon
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    A modeler will not give any details of how they adjust statistics because it would give away some of their edge. They do not want to teach other modelers how to make adjustments. When it comes to a game, they don't really have any reasons except to describe how they adjusted stats.

    A handicapper can tell you exactly why they are betting a game and it will not affect them at all except to possibly give away their opinions on teams and then if they are giving out picks a few sharp people can front run them

  12. #12
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger T. Bannon View Post
    A modeler will not give any details of how they adjust statistics because it would give away some of their edge. They do not want to teach other modelers how to make adjustments. When it comes to a game, they don't really have any reasons except to describe how they adjusted stats.

    A handicapper can tell you exactly why they are betting a game and it will not affect them at all except to possibly give away their opinions on teams and then if they are giving out picks a few sharp people can front run them
    that was exactly my point bro???


    so why trust people with writeups?
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  13. #13
    Roger T. Bannon
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    that was exactly my point bro???


    so why trust people with writeups?
    You don't trust anybody. You can't bet a sharp persons bets because you can't get their numbers. A writeup is an idea for a game. Even people that are square have sharp bets. They just have 9,999 square bets. The reason people do writeups is to get their opinion and the reason people read writeups is to get ideas. That is why so many people will follow a write-up. They say: "Hey, that sounds like a good idea!" and they bet it.

  14. #14
    BigdaddyQH
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    This is hysterical. You guys know absolutely NOTHING about winning sports wagering and you act as if all of you are winners. I guarantee you that NONE of you are overall lifetime winners. Guarantee it. As far as the post is concerned, Rudy is correct. A real professional gambler could give a crap about anyone else and actually hopes that he is the only winner. He/she want the biggest odds they can get. Why do a write up and ruin your chances of getting fat odds? This "we are all in this together to beat the book" attitude is BULL S**T. If you really care about another person, you are NOT a gambler.

  15. #15
    cincinnatikid513
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    This is hysterical. You guys know absolutely NOTHING about winning sports wagering and you act as if all of you are winners. I guarantee you that NONE of you are overall lifetime winners. Guarantee it. As far as the post is concerned, Rudy is correct. A real professional gambler could give a crap about anyone else and actually hopes that he is the only winner. He/she want the biggest odds they can get. Why do a write up and ruin your chances of getting fat odds? This "we are all in this together to beat the book" attitude is BULL S**T. If you really care about another person, you are NOT a gambler.
    i would love to kick ur sorry worthless arse


    not going to jail for elder abuse tho


    u old piece of shet
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  16. #16
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger T. Bannon View Post
    You don't trust anybody. You can't bet a sharp persons bets because you can't get their numbers. A writeup is an idea for a game. Even people that are square have sharp bets. They just have 9,999 square bets. The reason people do writeups is to get their opinion and the reason people read writeups is to get ideas. That is why so many people will follow a write-up. They say: "Hey, that sounds like a good idea!" and they bet it.
    Lets say you have $10 and a pizza costs $11


    you need to bet $1 on something to get a pizza because you are starving


    you respect poster A and poster B the same amount


    Poster A gives no reason for a play


    Poster B gives a 5000 word writeup for a play




    which play are you choosing?


    almost all choose B, id choose A
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  17. #17
    Booya711
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    Yes...just look at Morino...down in every thread but has write ups like he has a clue
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  18. #18
    jjgold
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    Kc +108

  19. #19
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by Booya711 View Post
    Yes...just look at Morino...down in every thread but has write ups like he has a clue
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  20. #20
    Booya711
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Kc +108
    Why? I need a write up to make a decision
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  21. #21
    RudyRuetigger
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    You will get losers from both sides


    BUT YOU ARE MORE LIKELY TO FIND A WINNER FROM THE NO WRITEUP SIDE



    THAT IS THE POINT



    CAPICHE???
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  22. #22
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Booya711 View Post
    Yes...just look at Morino...down in every thread but has write ups like he has a clue
    Yeah, but those don't count.

    His write ups don't have the right stats, field or even players in the game.

    I've never seen anything like it.

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  23. #23
    Roger T. Bannon
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    Lets say you have $10 and a pizza costs $11


    you need to bet $1 on something to get a pizza because you are starving


    you respect poster A and poster B the same amount


    Poster A gives no reason for a play


    Poster B gives a 5000 word writeup for a play




    which play are you choosing?


    almost all choose B, id choose A
    I'd choose B because I know what I am betting. If I choose A, I am just hoping the guy has a clue and he probably doesn't.

  24. #24
    KVB
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    Write ups can be far more useful to the bettor writing them up himself than to others.

    It's a healthy excercise for many, even if the write up is never submitted or posted.

    Tracking your bets and why you made them is essential to any serious handicapper.

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  25. #25
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger T. Bannon View Post
    I'd choose B because I know what I am betting. If I choose A, I am just hoping the guy has a clue and he probably doesn't.
    B is literally giving you his blueprints


    Thats why I laugh at Hman's golf thread from ESPN


    That writeup sucks ass


    Its nothing against him but it is so elementary
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  26. #26
    RudyRuetigger
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    Ok,. maybe I will give you guys a great writeup on golfer A


    Then I will take golfer B







    you can make a case for any bet
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  27. #27
    Roger T. Bannon
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    People do writeups because they want to discuss the game or they want to get credit for their bet but basically both.

    Or they want to become a tout. If you want to be a tout, you do really good writeups and get a following and then you make a lot of money or at least make some for a while. So just statistically speaking, you will probably win more betting writeups.

  28. #28
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    Ok,. maybe I will give you guys a great writeup on golfer A


    Then I will take golfer B







    you can make a case for any bet
    If you have enough people responding to your write up, you can get yourself a better line doing that.

    An experiment we succeeded in doing; from the saloon even.

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  29. #29
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    If you have enough people responding to your write up, you can get yourself a better line doing that.

    An experiment we succeeded in doing; from the saloon even.

    I remember when poster Durito moved a college basketball total


    Moving golf lines is very easy


    which sport did you guys move
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  30. #30
    KVB
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    Some writeups reveal important stats that are used in the decison making for some bettors.

    But that's a long way from applying weightings to those stats to generate the conclusion.

    You'd be surprised just how much you can reveal and still leave so much to be worked out.

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  31. #31
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    You'd be surprised just how much you can reveal and still leave so much to be worked out.

    we are friends now


    but i really dont believe that....this isnt integral calculus



    agree to disagree
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  32. #32
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    I remember when poster Durito moved a college basketball total


    Moving golf lines is very easy


    which sport did you guys move
    More than one college sport but posts were made at the open, where limits are stupid low.

    It was an experiment. With a "sort of" control.

    It was not done for nefarious purposes, but was done to show it could be done for nefarious purposes.

    lol

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  33. #33
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    we are friends now


    but i really dont believe that....this isnt integral calculus



    agree to disagree
    It's not the stats or info, it's how you use them.

    I can list all the stats and info that goes into making the decision, but if a reader can't run a regression or understand how they are weighted, then that reader will have a lot of work to do to create my line.

    See what I mean?

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  34. #34
    Roger T. Bannon
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    You aren't moving a line on a forum with a post unless you have amassed a big following or are a known pro bettor.

  35. #35
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger T. Bannon View Post
    You aren't moving a line on a forum with a post unless you have amassed a big following or are a known pro bettor.
    i bet i can move a golf line when i am funded at bookmaker no less


    i dont know how long itll be til im funded there


    but i bet i move the line on a golf matchup
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