1. #106
    NardVa
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Wrong. With the FG they only need to go 95 and not 75. You don't play to tie on the road. You go fir the kill shot, just a bad play call. But the decision itself was right.
    You're not playing to tie if you're up. But what the stats don't tell you is going up 8 means you can't lose in regulation. That's big from a mental standpoint. That means you can take more chances on defense. Why not give your team 3 opportunities to get the stop (the TD drive, the 2 point conversion, in OT).
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  2. #107
    Fred The Hammer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luckycharms2012 View Post
    Play for the tie, going for the killshot is all bullshit NFL talk to cover up how corrupt the game is, it might as well be soccer. The game is played on 2 sides, kicking a FG is not "playing for the tie" it's going up a TD plus a 2 pt conversion, you have your D to win the game for you. There's no guarantee Wilson drives 75 yards in 1 min AND gets the 2pt conversion BUT if you miss that FG and somehow Wilson does drive the field, he only needs a TD to beat you. It's a dumbass call.
    It was inches!! I just watched it again. Bad playcall so give them shit if u wish, but I saw someone go for 4th/inches at their own 40 today. Its like 90%. I don't know why Cousins didnt just sneak it with 2 big mothers behind him to shove him forward. That was stupid, but not the decision itself

    Also 1:57 left and Sea had 1 timeout to go 95

  3. #108
    rm18
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    If you go for it you still get 3 chances to win and the 1st two are higher %.

  4. #109
    Luckycharms2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by NardVa View Post
    But what the stats don't tell you is going up 8 means you can't lose in regulation. That's big from a mental standpoint. That means you can take more chances on defense. Why not give your team 3 opportunities to get the stop (the TD drive, the 2 point conversion, in OT).
    Exactly. It's very obvious why to preserve the under. On my book the blocked out a whole section of numbers for the alternative line total from 53.5-46 blocked off, so you either take over/under 54 and up or over/under 46 and down, and the number hit 53 pure robbery, i'm switching books.-

  5. #110
    PAULYPOKER
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    HOFer Kirk Cousins

    Mr. Choke Chicken under any adversity?

    Lol........

  6. #111
    Fred The Hammer
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    Sick loss. I hit my props so I made some $, but lost Over 53.5. Not sure why VIkings didnt just go for 2 when it was 25-21? 7 min left. If they got the ball back without a Sea score then they probably wouldnt have to score again. 27-21 and the game goes Over 53.5

    They gave that game away. GBs defense usually sucks, but they're better then this Sea group. NFC runs thru Lambeau as far as I can tell

  7. #112
    Luckycharms2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fred The Hammer View Post
    It was inches!! I just watched it again. Bad playcall so give them shit if u wish, but I saw someone go for 4th/inches at their own 40 today. Its like 90%. I don't know why Cousins didnt just sneak it with 2 big mothers behind him to shove him forward. That was stupid, but not the decision itself

    Also 1:57 left and Sea had 1 timeout to go 95
    Knowing the type of guy Russel Wilson is, you KNOW he's going to be driving down the field at the end of the game, you take the poiints and you go up 8. You go for it on 4th down, i don't care if it's a pubic hair length distance, you know 100% SURE if you don't get that 1st down the game is over..lol. You know the NFL and Russell Wilson, this is why the books wanted action on the game offering all kinds of bonuses to bet the game. I've seen it before and every game people will be able to come up with a reason to justify it, same way i got ****** over because some team needed to go up 21 instead of 20 with 3 mins to go to so they go for a 2pt conversion make it a 3 score game, as if the other team is gonna score 3 TD's and a FG in 3 mins. You can justify anything in football, but common sense will tell you it's fixed, they are playing to the numbers.

  8. #113
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by NardVa View Post
    You're not playing to tie if you're up. But what the stats don't tell you is going up 8 means you can't lose in regulation. That's big from a mental standpoint. That means you can take more chances on defense. Why not give your team 3 opportunities to get the stop (the TD drive, the 2 point conversion, in OT).
    All depends on what % you assign to likelihood to convert on 4th down. But again, don't forget they had to go 95 yards instead of 75 yards for TD. They dud it, but its significantly harder.

    It didn't work, but it was a justifiable decision either way.

  9. #114
    Luckycharms2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    All depends on what % you assign to likelihood to convert on 4th down. But again, don't forget they had to go 95 yards instead of 75 yards for TD. They dud it, but its significantly harder.

    It didn't work, but it was a justifiable decision either way.
    The difference between going 75 yards and 95 yards doesn't mean squat when A) Teams are playing d to not give up the big pass, a capable QB can get all kinds of easy chunk yards, and B) the refs can throw a flag at any time. I think you are over valuing that 20 yards. Going up 8 and letting Seahawks work the field under 2 mins with 1 timeout and knowing if they score, you can stop a 2pt conversion for the win anyway, and if all else fails you can still win in OT, that's the obvious call.
    Last edited by Luckycharms2012; 10-12-20 at 12:33 AM.

  10. #115
    Fred The Hammer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luckycharms2012 View Post
    Knowing the type of guy Russel Wilson is, you KNOW he's going to be driving down the field at the end of the game, you take the poiints and you go up 8. You go for it on 4th down, i don't care if it's a pubic hair length distance, you know 100% SURE if you don't get that 1st down the game is over..lol. You know the NFL and Russell Wilson, this is why the books wanted action on the game offering all kinds of bonuses to bet the game. I've seen it before and every game people will be able to come up with a reason to justify it, same way i got ****** over because some team needed to go up 21 instead of 20 with 3 mins to go to so they go for a 2pt conversion make it a 3 score game, as if the other team is gonna score 3 TD's and a FG in 3 mins. You can justify anything in football, but common sense will tell you it's fixed, they are playing to the numbers.
    I don't believe in conspiracy theories....sorry. Maybe JFK. I'm no pro, but I've been good (not great) on here for quite a while and been gambling 35 years.

    If I win/lose by .5 point then normally I didn't make a great bet and got lucky/unlucky. I chalk that up as experience. A good bet is the Alabama Over which I hit by 32 points or the Florida Over which I hit by 21 points or the Cards -7 today. Easy wins

  11. #116
    Fred The Hammer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luckycharms2012 View Post
    The difference between going 75 yards and 95 yards doesn't mean squat when A) Teams are playing d to not give up the big pass, a capable QB can get all kinds of easy chunk yards, and B) the refs can throw a flag at any time. I think you are over valuing that 20 yards. Going up 8 and letting Seahawks work the field under 2 mins with 1 timeout and knowing if they score, you can stop a 2pt conversion for the win anyway, and if all else fails you can still win in OT, that's the obvious call.
    I get your point, but hopefully you can see its damned if you do or damned if u don't. Bottom line....most NFL coaches are going for it on 4th/inches. If they were up 6 then thats another story. Another factor....if u look at the rain,etc. They had about the same % of making the first down as they did making the fg. This was the Vikings and it doesn't rain nonstop there. They're not used to it like Seattle.

    I love game strategy. I could bicker all night, but I respect your opinion and will call it a night

  12. #117
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luckycharms2012 View Post
    The difference between going 75 yards and 95 yards doesn't mean squat when A) Teams are playing d to not give up the big pass, a capable QB can get all kinds of easy chunk yards, and B) the refs can throw a flag at any time. I think you are over valuing that 20 yards. Going up 8 and letting Seahawks work the field under 2 mins with 1 timeout and knowing if they score, you can stop a 2pt conversion for the win anyway, and if all else fails you can still win in OT, that's the obvious call.
    Its not obvious. It all depends on how likely they were to convert 4th and inches? What do you think the odds of success was on that?

  13. #118
    Fred The Hammer
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    Prediction:

    Matt Corral from Ole Miss will be the next Russell Wilson or atleast RW lite. This kid is amazing and only a sophomore. He's listed 6'1 205, but looks skinnier. He has time to fill out. Kid just torched Bama last night like only Desean Watson did. He's amazing

  14. #119
    NardVa
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    All depends on what % you assign to likelihood to convert on 4th down. But again, don't forget they had to go 95 yards instead of 75 yards for TD. They dud it, but its significantly harder.

    It didn't work, but it was a justifiable decision either way.
    The difference between 75 and 95 is only 20 yards. That's nothing to a top tier QB or a top tier offense. If the Vikings were playing the Jets the 20 yards is big, but not for Seattle. Thier offense is one of the best at big plays (20 yards or more).

  15. #120
    Fred The Hammer
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    4th/10 and Vikings leave Metcalf with single coverage. Harrison slow ass Smith was in the area but not close enough to help out. How do you not double Metcalf when Wilson loves the deep alley oop pass to the big man? They didn't run a sneak or to their left on the 4th down. They ****** up and that will cost you

  16. #121
    Luckycharms2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Its not obvious. It all depends on how likely they were to convert 4th and inches? What do you think the odds of success was on that?
    It doesn't matter what the odds are, anything can happen on any individual play, why risk the game on one play? Maybe the offense isn't clutch in those moments. I'd rather be up 8 and let them drive the field and put the game in my defence hands. And if worse case scenario they score, they still have to get a 2pt conversion, and still we get OT. What are the odds the seahawks drive the field. score a TD, get the 2pt conversion, and win in OT? Zimmer put the game is danger as soon as he went for it, and basically gave it away because a TD gives Seattle the win instead of a possible tie. With moves like that no wonder why they are 1-4.
    Last edited by Luckycharms2012; 10-12-20 at 12:51 AM.

  17. #122
    Fred The Hammer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luckycharms2012 View Post
    It doesn't matter what the odds are, anything can happen on any individual play, why risk the game on one play? Maybe the offense isn't clutch in those moments. I'd rather be up 8 and let them drive the field and put the game in my defence hands. And if worse case scenario they score, they still have to get a 2pt conversion, and still we get OT. What are the odds the seahawks drive the field. score a TD, get the 2pt conversion, and win in OT? Zimmer put the game is danger as soon as he went for it, and basically gave it away because a TD gives Seattle the win instead of a possible tie. With moves like that no wonder why they are 1-4.
    If my choices were only handoff to the right or fg then I'd go fg. I'm coming around to your way of thinking, but teams with average QBs no momentum usually (maybe 80%?) lose in OT vs great QBs at home with all the momentum. RW is a future HOFer after all

  18. #123
    Luckycharms2012
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    I don't even want to talk about this anymore, all i know is when Zimmer decided to go for it i knew my Minny ML bet was toast. And bet365 is a cheap nickel and dime book.

  19. #124
    PAULYPOKER
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    Nobody prevails over Resilient Wilson.........

  20. #125
    PAULYPOKER
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    If his De gives him a chance to win,he's gonna win 100% of the time..

    Thee Goat......

  21. #126
    gauchojake
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    Someone do a welfare check on fatty please

  22. #127
    cincinnatikid513
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    Quote Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER View Post
    Nobody prevails over Resilient Wilson.........

    via GIPHY

    Last edited by cincinnatikid513; 10-12-20 at 01:45 AM.
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