1. 08-21-20 01:06 PM #1
    lakerboy
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    Why did books adjust jazz line so much?

    They are+1?

    The one game blowout got a lot of respect. Isn't Denver-1 looking good?

    Recommendations?
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  2. 08-21-20 01:11 PM #2
    SamsNCharge99
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    on jazz today

    every game will be a toss up with this series
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  3. 08-21-20 01:12 PM #3
    johnnyvegas13
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    I am already on jazz series

    prob won’t actually play this gm but I think it’s jazz or nothing
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  4. 08-21-20 01:15 PM #4
    Eddy Munny
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    The line adjustment is because Mike Conley is back in the bubble and will start today for the Jazz.
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  5. 08-21-20 01:20 PM #5
    lakerboy
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    Thanks Eddy. Who do you like?
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  6. 08-21-20 01:24 PM #6
    MrSink
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    toss up for me also
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  7. 08-21-20 01:31 PM #7
    Eddy Munny
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Thanks Eddy. Who do you like?
    I lean Jazz, I think they steal the series.
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  8. 08-21-20 01:44 PM #8
    midnighthour91
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    Jazz
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  9. 08-21-20 01:51 PM #9
    jjgold
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    Dead even teams Laker
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  10. 08-21-20 01:52 PM #10
    KVB
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    I have Denver winning this game 118 - 117 in the raw forecast.

    Jazz have Conley back from bubble.

    I really don't think we've seen that much movement though overall, have we? There was small utah steam but it seems like an oddly split market.

    Let's just say I am getting word that the books have somehow managed to sell a lot of Denver spread bets, the same with the handle on Denver, while the Utah bets and money seem to be on the moneyline.

    Maybe we see that one point game I've been looking for Lakeshow.

    lol.
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  11. 08-21-20 01:53 PM #11
    pavyracer
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    Not a significant adjustment. It happens all the time. Pick a winner and don't overanalyze the line.
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  12. 08-21-20 02:02 PM #12
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Not a significant adjustment. It happens all the time. Pick a winner and don't overanalyze the line.
    Huh?

    Denver was -4.5/5 in first game. -3.5/4 in game2. Now this game is a pk. Mike Conley is not that good.
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  13. 08-21-20 02:11 PM #13
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Huh?

    Denver was -4.5/5 in first game. -3.5/4 in game2. Now this game is a pk. Mike Conley is not that good.
    I see, you are comparing to the other spreads.

    Got it.

    You had me digging for some bigger movement from this morning.

    Not that my forecasts are some kind of God send, but the raw forecast had Denver winning by 8 last game and about the same the game before.

    This game shows a closer prediction both because of Conley and that last Jazz game. Not an over reaction, but a recent performance metric grabbing on nonetheless.

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  14. 08-21-20 02:15 PM #14
    Allure
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    KVB if you have it 118-117 take the over, why bother with sides
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  15. 08-21-20 02:17 PM #15
    KVB
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    Block, steals, assist, starters and bench contributions all up for Jazz, showing they can play with Denver.

    Those are some of the specifics of it all.

    Denver rebounding may have been up, but in their loss in game 1 Utah had the rebound advantage.

    Mitchell a wild factor and also a bit of an equalizer. Denver letting him get away with too much.
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  16. 08-21-20 02:21 PM #16
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Allure View Post
    KVB if you have it 118-117 take the over, why bother with sides
    Yes and truthfully the raw forecast is most definitely over performing on totals all season.

    Over the last 100 plays comparing the forecast to the line with even a .5 point discepency we're getting a 65-30-5 record, it translates to more than +20 units.

    In contrast, against the spread it's more like 47-51-2.

    It's hitting 60% against the moneyline as well, but betting all of those would still be a -4 unit loss.

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  17. 08-21-20 02:35 PM #17
    pologq
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    i will be a spectator. series too hard for me to call.
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  18. 08-21-20 02:41 PM #18
    Zlaniner
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    WagerType: Date: Team: Risking / To Win Ticket#:
    STRAIGHT BET Aug 21 NBA [723] TOTAL o216-110 (DENVER vrs UTAH) 30.00 SBR / 27.27 SBR 4500347
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  19. 08-21-20 02:41 PM #19
    pavyracer
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Huh?

    Denver was -4.5/5 in first game. -3.5/4 in game2. Now this game is a pk. Mike Conley is not that good.
    The reason why is with teams tied 1-1 the series is a best of 5 now. Do I have to teach you everything?

    The initial line for game 1 was based on best of 7 series.
    Last edited by pavyracer; 08-21-20 at 02:46 PM.
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  20. 08-21-20 02:42 PM #20
    lakerboy
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    Utah -1.5?
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  21. 08-21-20 02:44 PM #21
    ward106
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    Will Barton is out as well
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  22. 08-21-20 02:45 PM #22
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Thr reason why is with teams tied 1-1 the series is a best of 5 now. Do I have to teach you everything?

    The initial line for game 1 was based on best of 7 series.
    What's the line in the Mavs/Clippers? The series is tied.
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  23. 08-21-20 02:49 PM #23
    goduke
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    Tough to say. I like Denver in this but I also went against the overreaction in the okc Houston series and got smacked.
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  24. 08-21-20 02:51 PM #24
    lakerboy
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    I'm on Denver
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  25. 08-21-20 02:54 PM #25
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Utah -1.5?
    Yep.

    First it was the ML bets moving it, now the spread bets are coming through.

    Maybe it's so back and forth that the OVER is the play.

    A lot of these players can put up points.

    And the Total has even dropped...lol.
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  26. 08-21-20 02:55 PM #26
    asiagambler
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    I don't get it either. Conley worth 4 points is laughable

    If any series needed a big adjustment, I thought it'd be Celtics/Sixers but it opened at same line considering Hayward adjustment. Makes me think Sixers play hard and keep it close. Market always knows
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  27. 08-21-20 02:58 PM #27
    mjsuax13
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    I gotta go with the over again here. 217.5 at BETMGM and they have averaged 244.5 in this series. Interesting enough they were opposite most of the year. Going over. Good luck all. I’d take any points here if I were on a side.
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  28. 08-21-20 02:59 PM #28
    480Hustle
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    I like nuggets here for some reason , I think they’ll bounce back .. too good of a team not to
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  29. 08-21-20 02:59 PM #29
    Eddy Munny
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    Jazz have the home court advantage now.
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  30. 08-21-20 03:02 PM #30
    Eddy Munny
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    Quote Originally Posted by ward106 View Post
    Will Barton is out as well
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  31. 08-21-20 03:05 PM #31
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by asiagambler View Post
    I don't get it either. Conley worth 4 points is laughable

    If any series needed a big adjustment, I thought it'd be Celtics/Sixers but it opened at same line considering Hayward adjustment. Makes me think Sixers play hard and keep it close. Market always knows
    News of a starter returning is something to the public and the real market reaction to that news wasn't much of a move at all, that was the earlier steam I mentioned.

    But Utah was still getting bet and key books were holding off on the move, now they let the flood gates open for steam, the losing kind of steam.

    Utah moneyline becoming highly suspect to me from a "spot" play perspective when analyzing market factors, including forecasts.

    Man I hope that made sense, but bottom line I don't like the move in general.

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  32. 08-21-20 03:09 PM #32
    rm18
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    If Denver can ever get Harris and Barton back they will wreck Utah but for now it is dead even.
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  33. 08-21-20 03:38 PM #33
    KVB
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    I just went LIVE with OVER 206.5 (+100)

    Let's see if that momentum can change.

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  34. 08-21-20 03:40 PM #34
    jjgold
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    Laker take a nice 4 hr walk this weekend and get away from gambling
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  35. 08-21-20 03:41 PM #35
    shoota mcgavin
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    Jesus hard to watch Denver play like this lol
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