1. #1681
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by Judge Crater View Post
    Maybe, we will see.

    I do not trust Robocall polls because they are not allowed to call cell phones, only land lines. These land line owners tend to be much older and own their homes.

    https://www.marketingcharts.com/demo...nd-gen-x-77051
    They also vote much more, old people vote at far higher rates than younger people.

  2. #1682
    Kermit
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    Trump hit 3 cities in Pa today. If he wins Pa, he wins the election.

    Meanwhile in Philly(where most of the Biden votes come from) they just recorded their 400th murder today. That is the most murders in the city since 2006. And with over 2 months to go, they'll more than likely break even more records this year.

  3. #1683
    CWD
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  4. #1684
    beerman2619
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    Trump wins this election easy. Hunter will take care of his daddy after this election. Smoke crack with his pops and change his depends. Maybe both will look at child porn on his laptop. Think his Wife Jill will go bang some younger dudes and divorce Joe.

  5. #1685
    RoyBacon
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    poll conducted by InsiderAdvantage for the Center for American Greatness of 400 likely voters in Pennsylvania shows Donald Trump now leading in the state. The poll was conducted the evening of October 25 by both IVR and live cell phone interviews. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent and is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. The results:
    Donald Trump: 48.4%
    Joe Biden: 45.5 %
    Jo Jorgensen: 3 %
    Undecided: 3 %

    Within margin of error.

    All three of the states Trump won before are too close to call; WI, MI and PA. I think he wins WI easily.

  6. #1686
    chico2663
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    that oil comment cost biden penn. the leading search on google in penn is can i change my vote.

  7. #1687
    vitterd
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    Quote Originally Posted by RoyBacon View Post
    poll conducted by InsiderAdvantage for the Center for American Greatness of 400 likely voters in Pennsylvania shows Donald Trump now leading in the state. The poll was conducted the evening of October 25 by both IVR and live cell phone interviews. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent and is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. The results:
    Donald Trump: 48.4%
    Joe Biden: 45.5 %
    Jo Jorgensen: 3 %
    Undecided: 3 %

    Within margin of error.

    All three of the states Trump won before are too close to call; WI, MI and PA. I think he wins WI easily.
    Maybe the worst pollster there is.

  8. #1688
    vitterd
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kermit View Post
    Trump hit 3 cities in Pa today. If he wins Pa, he wins the election.

    Meanwhile in Philly(where most of the Biden votes come from) they just recorded their 400th murder today. That is the most murders in the city since 2006. And with over 2 months to go, they'll more than likely break even more records this year.
    The early vote is so overwhelming dem.

  9. #1689
    rkelly110
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kermit View Post
    Trump hit 3 cities in Pa today. If he wins Pa, he wins the election.

    Meanwhile in Philly(where most of the Biden votes come from) they just recorded their 400th murder today. That is the most murders in the city since 2006. And with over 2 months to go, they'll more than likely break even more records this year.
    How many did you go to? Asking for a friend so as to stay away from you for 14 days.......

  10. #1690
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by vitterd View Post
    The early vote is so overwhelming dem.
    That's why the odds to win pa were+400 three weeks ago and are now+160 right?

  11. #1691
    RoyBacon
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    Quote Originally Posted by rkelly110 View Post
    How many did you go to? Asking for a friend so as to stay away from you for 14 days.......
    LMAO tards and their covid. Dude it ain't The Plague. I know an overweight 74 year old who got over it in a couple of days.

  12. #1692
    SimpleJack
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    Quote Originally Posted by RoyBacon View Post
    LMAO tards and their covid. Dude it ain't The Plague. I know an overweight 74 year old who got over it in a couple of days.
    Your wife probably has good genes. Death sentence for some.

  13. #1693
    Kermit
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    Quote Originally Posted by rkelly110 View Post
    How many did you go to? Asking for a friend so as to stay away from you for 14 days.......
    He had one here just 2 weeks ago. I didn't go. I'm not into camping out all day for things like that.

  14. #1694
    Mike Huntertz
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    That's why the odds to win pa were+400 three weeks ago and are now+160 right?
    Where did you get +400 three weeks ago?

  15. #1695
    vitterd
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    That's why the odds to win pa were+400 three weeks ago and are now+160 right?
    This could not be more false

  16. #1696
    pavyracer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Huntertz View Post
    Where did you get +400 three weeks ago?
    In his dreams. Trump was actually about even with Biden in PA in September.
    175 pts

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  17. #1697
    chico2663
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    Quote Originally Posted by RoyBacon View Post
    LMAO tards and their covid. Dude it ain't The Plague. I know an overweight 74 year old who got over it in a couple of days.
    I have lost 5 family members dip shit.

  18. #1698
    ByeShea
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    In his dreams. Trump was actually about even with Biden in PA in September.
    Your first mistake was believing polls. Data suggests Biden not doing particularly well in any swing state (and take away the fictitious polls, can you really be surprised?)

    Data shows Trump meanwhile winning FL & AZ & NC ... and in MI it looks like he's flipping Oakland County, 2nd biggest in the state. GOP turnout there off the charts, just ask Michael Moore.

    Time for that last minute push, Joe!




    Joe? Where's Joe?



    Anyone seen Hunter?

  19. #1699
    RoyBacon
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    Quote Originally Posted by chico2663 View Post
    I have lost 5 family members dip shit.
    I'm throwing the BS flag on that one. Link me to their orbits. Probably just told you they died so they get the fvvk away from your weird bean-vomit smelling azz. Just one theory.

  20. #1700
    vitterd
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    Quote Originally Posted by ByeShea View Post
    Your first mistake was believing polls. Data suggests Biden not doing particularly well in any swing state (and take away the fictitious polls, can you really be surprised?)

    Data shows Trump meanwhile winning FL & AZ & NC ... and in MI it looks like he's flipping Oakland County, 2nd biggest in the state. GOP turnout there off the charts, just ask Michael Moore.

    Time for that last minute push, Joe!




    Joe? Where's Joe?



    Anyone seen Hunter?
    This is completely false. I mean, absolutely the opposite is happening.

  21. #1701
    Mike Huntertz
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    Quote Originally Posted by ByeShea View Post
    Your first mistake was believing polls. Data suggests Biden not doing particularly well in any swing state (and take away the fictitious polls, can you really be surprised?)

    Data shows Trump meanwhile winning FL & AZ & NC ... and in MI it looks like he's flipping Oakland County, 2nd biggest in the state. GOP turnout there off the charts, just ask Michael Moore.

    Time for that last minute push, Joe!




    Joe? Where's Joe?



    Anyone seen Hunter?
    Please post the data.

  22. #1702
    Judge Crater
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    Trump gains overnight

    Betfair
    Biden -200
    Trump +198

    Trump was at +192 earlier, seems to be grinding back up.

    I think this maybe was caused by the Philadelphia riots overnight. I didn't see anything else in the news to cause a ten cent drop.

  23. #1703
    vitterd
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Huntertz View Post
    Please post the data.
    He has none. Itís all nonsense and lies. ByeShea follows some guy on twitter named Larry and listens to him. The guy has been wrong about every race heís ever predicted.

  24. #1704
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    In his dreams. Trump was actually about even with Biden in PA in September.
    He was +400 in Vegas on oct 4

    These were odds on oct 16



    You think he was even then went to+250? Lol paver.

    He is +160 today


  25. #1705
    vitterd
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    Action network? Wtf?

  26. #1706
    Judge Crater
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    From Dave Wasserman of non-partisan Cook Political Report's Twitter feed today

    Let's see...what should we put more faith in?

    1) A molehill of state-level online polls from attention-seeking, off-brand pollsters? Or...

    2) A mountain of district-level polls from established pollsters tasked w/ helping their parties make smart resource allocation decisions

  27. #1707
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by vitterd View Post
    Action network? Wtf?
    Bottom line odds have dropped on trump

  28. #1708
    RoyBacon
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    Quote Originally Posted by Judge Crater View Post
    From Dave Wasserman of non-partisan Cook Political Report's Twitter feed today

    Let's see...what should we put more faith in?

    1) A molehill of state-level online polls from attention-seeking, off-brand pollsters? Or...

    2) A mountain of district-level polls from established pollsters tasked w/ helping their parties make smart resource allocation decisions

    Like 2016? Yea, let's be dumb azzes and make the same mistake twice. LOL

    I agree Trump is losing and I obviously agree with the "markets". But everyone including the markets KNOW there is a Trump under count to factor in. The only question is how much is it?

  29. #1709
    vitterd
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Bottom line odds have dropped on trump
    Bet trump then. Let me know how that works out. I posted the early pa voting numbers last night.

  30. #1710
    vitterd
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    Quote Originally Posted by vitterd View Post
    Pa early voting 1.4 million

    71 dems
    20 Repubs
    9 others

    New voters who are voting for first time

    66 Dems
    17 repub
    17 other
    I mean. Just take a look

  31. #1711
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by vitterd View Post
    Bet trump then. Let me know how that works out. I posted the early pa voting numbers last night.
    I took it last week+190. I don't need to let you know how it works out. You will find out soon.

  32. #1712
    vitterd
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    I took it last week+190. I don't need to let you know how it works out. You will find out soon.
    I already know but I canít wait to see all the disappearing acts next week.

  33. #1713
    Judge Crater
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    absolutely correct, the big electoral sites ( 538, Larry Sabato, Cook Report, etc.) all put odds of Trump much longer than the betting markets. I am not sure there is value for trump in the betting markets as they are already discounted.


    Quote Originally Posted by RoyBacon View Post
    Like 2016? Yea, let's be dumb azzes and make the same mistake twice. LOL

    I agree Trump is losing and I obviously agree with the "markets". But everyone including the markets KNOW there is a Trump under count to factor in. The only question is how much is it?
    Last edited by Judge Crater; 10-27-20 at 10:00 AM.

  34. #1714
    RoyBacon
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    Quote Originally Posted by Judge Crater View Post
    absolutely correct, the big electoral sites ( 538, Larry Sabato, Cook Report, etc.) all put odds of Trump much longer than the betting markets. I am not sure there is value for trump in the betting markets as they are already discounted.
    The most damning stats I've seen is the already voted polls. Trump is down 8ish points in the midwest. Even if you take out the dems over sample and massage the MOE you come up with too big of a hill to take on election day.

    Close? Yes. Value? As a famous SBR gambler once said; there ain't much value in losing.

  35. #1715
    Judge Crater
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    @NateSilver538
    17hIf the polls aren't tightening since the debate—and with 62 million people having voted—we're sort of getting to the point where the only way Trump can win is with a major polling error, bigger than in 2016 (or if the election is stolen somehow).


    @NateSilver538
    Actually Trump's odds (12%) are quite close to the chances of catching an inside straight (9%), low but still well within the realm of normal things you see in any poker session, and not the much less likely thing you are describing (0.3%).(Also, who plays draw poker anymore?)









    Quote Originally Posted by RoyBacon View Post
    The most damning stats I've seen is the already voted polls. Trump is down 8ish points in the midwest. Even if you take out the dems over sample and massage the MOE you come up with too big of a hill to take on election day.
    Quote Originally Posted by RoyBacon View Post

    Close? Yes. Value? As a famous SBR gambler once said; there ain't much value in losing.

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