2020 Election. The State by State Odds and MATH

**Judge Crater** · 10-26-20, 02:21 PM

Five Thirty Eight
Chances of Trifectas

71% Democratic Trifecta
16% Biden + R Senate and D House
7% Trump + R Senate and D House
3% Republican Trifecta
2% Trump and D Senate and D House

Five Thirty Eight does not poll, they average all the rated polls and and analyze based on past history

**KVB** · 10-26-20, 02:23 PM

538

**Judge Crater** · 10-26-20, 02:24 PM

Are you saying they do not average the polls correctly?

Originally posted by KVB

538

**RoyBacon** · 10-26-20, 02:34 PM

Originally posted by Judge Crater

Five Thirty Eight
Chances of Trifectas

71% Democratic Trifecta
16% Biden + R Senate and D House
7% Trump + R Senate and D House
3% Republican Trifecta
2% Trump and D Senate and D House

Five Thirty Eight does not poll, they average all the rated polls and and analyze based on past history

I think markets are catching on.

I say let the retards play. Republicans will pull a 2010 move and Joe and Heels Up will be terrible.

**RudyRuetigger** · 10-26-20, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by Judge Crater

Five Thirty Eight
Chances of Trifectas

71% Democratic Trifecta
16% Biden + R Senate and D House
7% Trump + R Senate and D House
3% Republican Trifecta
2% Trump and D Senate and D House

Five Thirty Eight does not poll, they average all the rated polls and and analyze based on past history

ive posted numerous times how they do not

Originally posted by KVB

538

Originally posted by Judge Crater

Are you saying they do not average the polls correctly?

**RudyRuetigger** · 10-26-20, 02:39 PM

If a 3rd world war happens, itll be GERMANY again, with china this time

they are really fukkin things over

they better get rid of merkel next year

**Judge Crater** · 10-26-20, 02:41 PM

I was surprised rather than alternatingly portraying Harris as either "Chairman Mao" or "The Heartless Prosecutor", they did not play up her early rise to the top as the mistress to Willie Brown.

Originally posted by RoyBacon

I think markets are catching on.
Republicans will pull a 2010 move and Joe and Heels Up will be terrible.

**KVB** · 10-26-20, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by Judge Crater

Are you saying they do not average the polls correctly?

What's their election history record?

Whether the markets are efficient or not, how about their average line error on electoral votes?

Does their percentage or probablity difference from the closing line translate to reality?

Are they better than a coin flip using a z score test?

How many years of prediction results is our sample?

Are they predictive in any area or subject that they cover?

If you don't know the answers to these questions then be careful using them as a valid source of probablities and ask yourself why you consider 538 a valid source to begin with if you didn't do your homework.

This is why I laugh.

**vitterd** · 10-26-20, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by KVB

What's their election history record?

Whether the markets are efficient or not, how about their average line error on electoral votes?

Does their percentage or probablity difference from the closing line translate to reality?

Are they better than a coin flip using a z score test?

How many years of prediction results is our sample?

Are they predictive in any area or subject that they cover?

If you don't know the answers to these questions then be careful using them as a valid source of probablities and ask yourself why you consider 538 a valid source to begin with if you didn't do your homework.

This is why I laugh.

You know less than most here.

**Auto Donk** · 10-26-20, 02:45 PM

538's primary source is some shit called "survery monkey".........

tells us all we need to know...........

**Judge Crater** · 10-26-20, 02:47 PM

I think aggregate poll means there is no primary source

Originally posted by Auto Donk

538's primary source is some shit called "survery monkey".........

tells us all we need to know...........

**KVB** · 10-26-20, 02:48 PM

Originally posted by Judge Crater

...Five Thirty Eight does not poll, they average all the rated polls and and analyze based on past history

I also laughed a little at this statement.

They don't poll, they just use other polls...that's funny.

Past history? Do they weight recent history or treat all of history the same. Are they developing a predictive model or just adding up some percentages based on polls and are happy with what they get?

I don't deny adding up percentages can be valid, I always talk about my "stacking percentages forecast," but do we know that 538 is predictive, or even 50-50?

Trying to get you guys to think out of the box here and to not just trust mainstream media information.

538 is mainstream media information and we know plenty of sources that pass on misinformation daily that also will include 538 numbers in some of their broadcasts. That is a fact that can not be denied.

Do your homework fellas, there is no substitute.

**Auto Donk** · 10-26-20, 02:49 PM

Originally posted by Judge Crater

I was surprised rather than alternatingly portraying Harris as either "Chairman Mao" or "The Heartless Prosecutor", they did not play up her early rise to the top as the mistress to Willie Brown.

they should have used my take on this slut harris, with plenty of references to willie........:

Sportsbook Review Forum

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/saloon/3619162-bud-lights-real-women-genius-kamala-harris-version.html

**KVB** · 10-26-20, 02:51 PM

**RudyRuetigger** · 10-26-20, 03:01 PM

403 Forbidden

https://www.newsweek.com/70-republicans-60-democrats-say-people-lie-when-taking-polls-1529841

Anew poll suggests that two-thirds of all registered voters believe that people lie about their political preferences when taking part in polls.
A Hill-HarrisX survey released Friday found that 66 percent believe others are likely to lie to pollsters when asked about politics, while 34 percent believed lying was unlikely.
A larger majority of Republicans said that others lied, 70 percent, compared to 60 percent of Democrats. The poll found that 67 percent of Independents agreed.
The survey was conducted online among 971 registered voters on August 31, with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

**JohnGalt2341** · 10-26-20, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by KVB

The irony of this is beyond hilarious. This would be like a kid thinking he's wise to the world because he figured out that the tooth fairy isn't real. But if you ask him about the Easter Bunny he'll tell you that anyone that doesn't believe in the Easter Bunny is a dumb dumb.

Eventually, nearly every single one of us will know that Trump is/was a fraud. It just takes some longer than others to figure it out.

**BOA12** · 10-26-20, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by JohnGalt2341

The irony of this is beyond hilarious. This would be like a kid thinking he's wise to the world because he figured out that the tooth fairy isn't real. But if you ask him about the Easter Bunny he'll tell you that anyone that doesn't believe in the Easter Bunny is a dumb dumb.

Eventually, nearly every single one of us will know that Trump is/was a fraud. It just takes some longer than others to figure it out.

Don't count it, deniers, from the womb, 2 the tomb.

**SEAHAWKHARRY** · 10-26-20, 03:11 PM

How is he a fraud
Record job growth b4 covid
Peace in Middle East
Isis eradicated
Stock market awesome
Kids are not drug addicts
Was attacked every day by the left and still did these thing
Walls being built I work down there ive seen it being built the past three years .

**SEAHAWKHARRY** · 10-26-20, 03:12 PM

Trump in a landslide

**RudyRuetigger** · 10-26-20, 03:13 PM

Originally posted by SEAHAWKHARRY

How is he a fraud
Record job growth b4 covid
Peace in Middle East
Isis eradicated
Stock market awesome
Kids are not drug addicts
Was attacked every day by the left and still did these thing
Walls being built I work down there ive seen it being built the past three years .

galt and BkofAma are "independent"

yet they are fukkin nonstop democrat shills

i think they should wake up and call themselves a soyboy

**King Mayan** · 10-26-20, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by JohnGalt2341

The irony of this is beyond hilarious. This would be like a kid thinking he's wise to the world because he figured out that the tooth fairy isn't real. But if you ask him about the Easter Bunny he'll tell you that anyone that doesn't believe in the Easter Bunny is a dumb dumb.

Eventually, nearly every single one of us will know that Trump is/was a fraud. It just takes some longer than others to figure it out.

When you’re in a cult you don’t find out your leader is a fraud, until your leader makes you drink poison and you end up in hell

**rkelly110** · 10-26-20, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by SEAHAWKHARRY

How is he a fraud
Record job growth b4 covid
Peace in Middle East
Isis eradicated
Stock market awesome
Kids are not drug addicts
Was attacked every day by the left and still did these thing
Walls being built I work down there ive seen it being built the past three years .

Rump cuck.

**JohnGalt2341** · 10-26-20, 03:39 PM

Originally posted by SEAHAWKHARRY

How is he a fraud
Record job growth b4 covid
Peace in Middle East
Isis eradicated
Stock market awesome
Kids are not drug addicts
Was attacked every day by the left and still did these thing
Walls being built I work down there ive seen it being built the past three years .

Let me just point out something really simple that maybe you can understand. Watch the video below.

The next day Trump said he was CLEARLY being "sarcastic". Ask yourself this question... if this is the kind of stuff he lies about in plain site when WE KNOW he's lying... how often do you think he lies about stuff that is much more difficult to verify?

I could tell you that I slept with Scarlett Johansen in 2010 and you wouldn't be able to prove that I didn't. But that doesn't automatically mean that it's true. These are the types of lies that Trump tells daily. And his cult followers believe every single word he says because they are intellectually lazy and they have no interest at all in the truth. They are only interested in the lies Trump tells because it's what they WANT to believe is true.

The only thing Trump is good at is convincing simpletons that he's not a fraud. TV evangelists have this skill as well. They both draw similar crowds and they have similar promises and they tell similar lies.

Don't worry, eventually you'll figure it out. Nearly everyone will.

**ByeShea** · 10-26-20, 03:40 PM

Well, well ... Biden campaign underperforming in Philly?

Time to panic!

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Pennsylvania [New York Times Report] - Trump carrying 24% of Philly. <br><br>If President Trump carries 24%+ of Philadelphia voters, barring massive fraud, he will win PA easily.<a href="https://t.co/IoDfKJ8VEp">https://t.co/IoDfKJ8VEp</a> <a href="https://t.co/IkKltDUcT3">pic.twitter.com/IkKltDUcT3</a></p>— TheLastRefuge (@TheLastRefuge2) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheLastRefuge2/status/1320800906775040000?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 26, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

**KVB** · 10-26-20, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by JohnGalt2341

The irony of this is beyond hilarious. This would be like a kid thinking he's wise to the world because he figured out that the tooth fairy isn't real. But if you ask him about the Easter Bunny he'll tell you that anyone that doesn't believe in the Easter Bunny is a dumb dumb.

Eventually, nearly every single one of us will know that Trump is/was a fraud. It just takes some longer than others to figure it out.

You completely missed the point of basically every one of my posts. You guys are so stuck on politics that you have no clue about betting it.

Your sources of demonstrably false, you premises are false, and that's why you run around in circles with with confusing conclusions.

If you think my posts and that picture have anything to do with Trump, which your post confirms, then I can't help you. I just can't drop to your level of bias and then teach you where you are wrong.

Maybe I could, but I won't. If you want to stay low info, stay low info. This thread should be moved to the political Forum, it has nothing to do with real gambling.

Good Luck guy.

**RudyRuetigger** · 10-26-20, 03:46 PM

i believe someone like galt does worse for this country than someone like Gaddafi

**RudyRuetigger** · 10-26-20, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by KVB

You completely missed the point of basically every one of my posts. You guys are so stuck on politics that you have no clue about betting it.

Your sources of demonstrably false, you premises are false, and that's why you run around in circles with with confusing conclusions.

If you think my posts and that picture have anything to do with Trump, which your post confirms, then I can't help you. I just can't drop to your level of bias and then teach you where you are wrong.

Maybe I could, but I won't. If you want to stay low info, stay low info. This thread should be moved to the political Forum, it has nothing to do with real gambling.

Good Luck guy.

dont try to reason with those fukkin clowns

**jt315** · 10-26-20, 03:57 PM

Originally posted by ByeShea

Well, well ... Biden campaign underperforming in Philly?

Time to panic!

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Pennsylvania [New York Times Report] - Trump carrying 24% of Philly. <br><br>If President Trump carries 24%+ of Philadelphia voters, barring massive fraud, he will win PA easily.<a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/IoDfKJ8VEp">https://t.co/IoDfKJ8VEp</a> <a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/IkKltDUcT3">pic.twitter.com/IkKltDUcT3</a></p>— TheLastRefuge (@TheLastRefuge2) <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/TheLastRefuge2/status/1320800906775040000?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 26, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Rut - roh ! This needs to change drastically . We know who shows up on Election Day .

Republicans now lead in Wisconsin in number of ballots returned!

Republican ballots: 42%

Democrat ballots: 36%

**RoyBacon** · 10-26-20, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by jt315

Rut - roh ! This needs to change drastically . We know who shows up on Election Day .

Republicans now lead in Wisconsin in number of ballots returned!

Republican ballots: 42%

Democrat ballots: 36%

Dude that's Russian propaganda. Vitty says it's 99.9% to .01% for the retards.

**jt315** · 10-26-20, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

Dude that's Russian propaganda. Vitty says it's 99.9% to .01% for the retards.

Damn they stick their noses into everything nowadays .

**SEAHAWKHARRY** · 10-26-20, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by burdman

Wow. New numbers out. Millions more keep voting for Harris and Biden. I’m even surprised. I knew we would dominate, but this is insane. Where do all the votes keep coming from??!!!???

And the lines are packed as we speak. Millions more today!

Votes are not counted untill nov 3rd

**SEAHAWKHARRY** · 10-26-20, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by JohnGalt2341

Let me just point out something really simple that maybe you can understand. Watch the video below.

The next day Trump said he was CLEARLY being "sarcastic". Ask yourself this question... if this is the kind of stuff he lies about in plain site when WE KNOW he's lying... how often do you think he lies about stuff that is much more difficult to verify?

I could tell you that I slept with Scarlett Johansen in 2010 and you wouldn't be able to prove that I didn't. But that doesn't automatically mean that it's true. These are the types of lies that Trump tells daily. And his cult followers believe every single word he says because they are intellectually lazy and they have no interest at all in the truth. They are only interested in the lies Trump tells because it's what they WANT to believe is true.

The only thing Trump is good at is convincing simpletons that he's not a fraud. TV evangelists have this skill as well. They both draw similar crowds and they have similar promises and they tell similar lies.

Don't worry, eventually you'll figure it out. Nearly everyone will.

So you really think Trump was serious about injecting disinfectant..you are a dumb sum biatch

**vitterd** · 10-26-20, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by jt315

Rut - roh ! This needs to change drastically . We know who shows up on Election Day .

Republicans now lead in Wisconsin in number of ballots returned!

Republican ballots: 42%

Democrat ballots: 36%

Bwaaaaahhhh. Not one sane person believes this. Wisconsin is not in play.

**jt315** · 10-26-20, 04:06 PM

Originally posted by vitterd

Bwaaaaahhhh. Not one sane person believes this. Wisconsin is not in play.

Said the same people in 2016 .

**JohnGalt2341** · 10-26-20, 04:06 PM

Originally posted by KVB

You completely missed the point of basically every one of my posts. You guys are so stuck on politics that you have no clue about betting it.

Your sources of demonstrably false, you premises are false, and that's why you run around in circles with with confusing conclusions.

If you think my posts and that picture have anything to do with Trump, which your post confirms, then I can't help you. I just can't drop to your level of bias and then teach you where you are wrong.

Maybe I could, but I won't. If you want to stay low info, stay low info. This thread should be moved to the political Forum, it has nothing to do with real gambling.

Good Luck guy.

I almost never talk about the actual politics, I only point out that Trump is a pathological liar and should not be trusted. I provide evidence for this as well.

What sources are you referring to? And what premises are false? I rarely point out anything on here unless the source is Trump himself. See the video in post #1563. The source is Trump himself.

You Trumpsters fail to realize that many of us are actually trying to help you see the truth about Trump. It's no different than me telling someone from the Jim Jones cult to not drink the kool-aid.