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    Hman
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    Best College Football Bets For Week 4

    Best college football bets for Week 4

    Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin
    ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


    As we enter the heart of the college football season, each team reveals more about itself by the week and each game offers a chance for the most observant bettors to take advantage of what they learn. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin pick their top plays across the college football landscape.
    Here are the best bets for Week 4 of the college football season.

    Note: Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Wednesday night. As always, shop for the best price.

    No. 7 Stanford Cardinal (-1.5) vs. No. 20 Oregon Ducks (O/U 56.5)

    8 p.m. ET, Saturday (ABC)


    Coughlin: Last week I talked about how Texas needed a win in a prime-time spot in the worst way, and you saw a great effort out of them as they fell behind early and stormed back to win by 23 points. This week, that team is Oregon. National TV, College GameDay in town, all things you want for what I think will easily be the best atmosphere in the sport Saturday. Add to that, it's the fourth time in eight years the Ducks have been a underdog at home in Autzen Stadium. There's plenty of motivation for the Quack Attack. I'll take the home underdog.
    Pick: Oregon +1.5
    Score: Oregon 34, Stanford 28



    Air Force Falcons vs. Utah State Aggies (-11; O/U 62.5)

    10:15 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN2)
    Steele: Utah State lost by three on the road last year against Air Force despite a 521-440 edge in total yards. After Aggies head coach Matt Wells brought experienced teams up against Air Force in his first two years, holding their potent rushing attack to just 162 (3.3/per) and 155 (3.0) yards rushing those seasons, his inexperienced defenses over the past three years have struggled. Air Force has averaged more than five yards per carry rushing combined over that stretch -- but the Falcons have averaged only 4.1 yards per carry so far this season.
    Utah State's offense is clicking so far this season. They put up 55 points per game and nearly upset Michigan State on the road in Week 1. The Aggies are the stronger team, and they'll be playing with revenge on their minds after last season's loss and are 7-2 as home favorites over the past three years.
    Pick: Utah State -11
    Score: Utah State 41, Air Force 24



    Washington State Cougars vs. USC Trojans(-4; O/U 53.5)

    10:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN)
    Fallica: USC's stock couldn't be any lower as the Trojans' offense has managed 17 total points and 324.5 YPG the past two weeks. But while freshman QB JT Daniels is still growing, and the way in which RB Stephen Carr has been used can be questioned, the SC defense has played well. Last week's score was a little deceiving, as Texas scored a TD on a blocked field goal with 6 minutes, 25 seconds left in the third quarter and then tacked on a TD five minutes later to turn a nine-point game into a 23-point final margin.
    USC allowed San Ehlinger to complete just 45.5 percent of his passes and Texas managed only 3.3 YPC. Washington State is unbeaten, but two of its wins are over an FCS team in Eastern Washington and San Jose State, which is one of the worst FBS teams out there. The Cougars' D has been better than I thought it would be minus Alex Grinch, but faces by far its toughest test of the year. Maybe SC won't rally and win the Rose Bowl after a slow start in 2016, but revenge for last year's Friday night defeat and desperation to save their season should be powerful factors for the Trojans this week.
    Pick: USC -4
    Score: USC 34, Washington State 23



    No. 17 TCU Horned Frogs (-3) vs. Texas Longhorns (O/U 47.5)

    4:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
    Coughlin: It's Week 4 and I just realized that I have given out a side or total in each Texas game this season. So let's keep the streak going. I was in Austin last week and Horns QB Sam Ehlinger is easily one of my favorite players to watch in college football. He does whatever it takes to help the team, as seen by his 17 rushes for 35 yards and 1 touchdown. After watching the tape of the TCU-Ohio State game, I came away with one thought: The speed on both sides of the ball is at a huge advantage to the boys from Fort Worth vs the boys from Austin.
    Since Mack Brown left as Texas coach after the 2013 season, the Longhorns have beaten every Big 12 team at least once -- except for the Horned Frogs. It's pretty obvious that Coach Gary Patterson from TCU takes this game very seriously. I think the streak continues. Take the road favorite.
    Pick: TCU -3
    Score: TCU 27, Texas 20


    Steele: The underdog is 16-5-1 in Tom Herman's four years as a head coach when he is at home. Herman is a perfect 3-0 as a home underdog. Texas held USC to minus-five yards rushing last week and catch TCU in their third road game in three weeks, while the Longhorns are at home for a third straight week. My computer calls for Texas to have a 77-yard edge in this game.
    Pick: Texas +3 (+)
    Score: Texas 24, TCU 20



    Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. San Diego State Aztecs (-11; O/U 50.5)

    10:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
    Fallica: This is the same Eastern Michigan team that won at Purdue as a huge dog, and when the Eagles lose, it's usually a close game; nine of their past 10 losses have been by seven points or fewer. San Diego State has played two Pac-12 opponents and an FCS opponent thus far and failed to score more than 28 points in any of the three games. Granted, there has been an injury at the QB position.
    Since the start of last year, EMU has been a pretty good defense, ranking 51st in defensive EPA -- putting it second in the MAC. For comparison, San Diego State is 47th in that metric in that span. Grabbing double digits seems like the right thing to do, especially with San Diego State coming off an upset win over a Power 5 opponent.
    Pick: Eastern Michigan +11
    Score: San Diego State 27, Eastern Michigan 24



    East Carolina Pirates vs. USF Bulls (-22.5; O/U 68.5)

    8 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN News)
    Steele: The last time East Carolina visited USF, the Pirates trailed 24-22 with 6:58 left and missed a game-tying two-point conversion in an eventual 16-point loss. East Carolina bounced back from their loss to an FCS school in this season's opener with a solid 41-19 win over North Carolina, and should be fresh after a bye.
    USF enters this week off two emotional come-from-behind wins. Trailing by 12 in the fourth quarter against Illinois, the Bulls scored the final 17 points including the game-winning 50-yard touchdown pass with 2:24 left. Two weeks ago, in their comeback win over Georgia Tech, the Bulls were minus 176 yards and still won by 11 points. This ECU team is Scottie Montgomery's best yet, and with the superior situation, the Pirates make this game a lot closer than expected.
    Pick: East Carolina (+)
    Score: USF 41, East Carolina 31



    Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Maryland Terrapins (-2.5; O/U 46.5)

    12 p.m. ET, Saturday
    Coughlin: One team is undefeated and getting points from the team that lost to a winless team. Do the math. OK. It doesn't make sense. Give the points.
    Pick: Maryland -2.5
    Score: Maryland 27, Minnesota 17



    Troy Trojans (-6) vs. UL Monroe Warhawks(O/U 61.5)

    7 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN+)
    Fallica: Last year, after pulling off a road upset over LSU, Troy lost to South Alabama as a huge favorite. After beating Nebraska last week, the Trojans return to the road to face UL Monroe, who probably deserved a better fate margin-wise last week at Texas A&M (had a 28-yard FG blocked and returned for a TD, had a pass intercepted inside the A&M 20 and had to settle for a 27-yard FG).
    A look inside the box score shows Troy had just 12 first downs, 253 yards, 10 penalties and two turnovers in Lincoln. Anything close to that type of offensive performance this week might result in a loss, as ULM is a top-45 offense in terms of EPA since the start of last year with Caleb Evans and crew (Troy is 78th). While ULM has struggled stopping teams at times, they should get enough stops to hang around here.
    Pick: UL Monroe +6
    Score: Troy 30, UL Monroe 27



    No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs (-14) vs. Missouri Tigers (O/U 64.5)

    12 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN)
    Steele: Last year Georgia had a 696-312 yard-edge and never trailed in a 53-28 home win over the Tigers. Last year Missouri did not defeat a team with a winning record, and while facing only three Power 5 teams that finished with a winning record at home over the past two years; the Tigers lost those matchups by an average of 29 points per game.
    Georgia already went on the road and crushed South Carolina, 41-17, in a game they led 41-10 after three quarters. Last week Missouri got outgained 614-608 by Purdue and needed a 25-yard field goal as time expired to win 40-37. Georgia has covered seven straight against FBS foes and are on a 7-0 ATS run on the road. Missouri is 6-11 as an underdog.
    Drew Lock has a 22-23 TD-INT ratio in his career when facing power five teams that go to a bowl, but an incredible 60-9 ratio against all other opponents. Unfortunately for Lock, I fully expect Georgia to get to a bowl this season, so Lock could be in for a tough day.
    Pick: Georgia -14
    Score: Georgia 44, Missouri 23



    South Carolina Gamecocks (-2) vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (O/U 54.5)

    4 p.m. ET, Saturday (SEC Network)
    Coughlin:The Gamecocks still haven't played since they were embarrassed at home by the No. 2-ranked Georgia Bulldogs in Week 2. You would have to think they'd come out fired up in a spot where they know they have to play well in order to win. Vandy is coming off a very tough loss in South Bend, a loss where you are still thinking about it a couple days later.
    The expectation here is the South Carolina offense will come out with a focused game plan and look crisp after not playing a game in 14 days. There is no doubt who the more talented team is, and I also believe the Gamecocks are the better-coached team, so the time off will be an advantage. Look for my man Deebo Samuel to have a monster day. Lay the points.
    Pick: South Carolina -2
    Score: South Carolina 28, Vanderbilt 17



    Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. No. 6 LSU Tigers (-21; O/U 49)

    7 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPNU)
    Fallica: Louisiana Tech has typically been a good dog vs Power 5 teams, covering nine of the past 13 and nearly winning at South Carolina last year. LSU has failed to cover each of its past four games as a 20-point favorite and is 2-7 ATS in its past nine games as a 20-point favorite -- including last year, when LSU was a 20.5-point favorite and lost to Troy in Baton Rouge.
    LSU is likely to be a little flat after two wins over top-10 teams in the first three weeks. In addition to those trends, there has to be concern with how long LSU can continue winning games while completing 45.6 percent of its passes (128th in FBS), gaining 333.7 YPG (111th in FBS) and seeing 37 percent of its plays go for zero or negative yards (110th in FBS). Even against SE Louisiana, the Tigers managed just 335 yards. If they fail to hit 375 yards for a fourth straight game, I would have to like Tech's chances of staying within 21.
    Pick: Louisiana Tech +21
    Score: LSU 38, Louisiana Tech 21



    No. 3 Clemson Tigers (-16.5) vs. Georgia Tech (O/U 51.5)

    3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (ABC)
    Steele: With Clemson's defensive front, you would expect it to fare well against the option, and that rang true over the past three years as it has held Georgia Tech to just 121 yards per game rush and 2.9 yards per carry. Clemson has its best defensive line yet in this year's squad, and it has the significant edge of having already faced the option last week. Clemson allowed Georgia Southern a total of only 30 yards of total offense in the first half.
    Georgia Tech is just 4-8 ATS as a home underdog over the past nine years. Georgia Tech trailed Pittsburgh 24-6 in the fourth quarter last week before a couple of late scores. After a narrow escape in their previous road game against Texas A&M, look for a focused Clemson team to roll to a more comfortable win here.
    Pick: Clemson -16.5
    Score: Clemson 34, Georgia Tech 10



    Arizona Wildcats (-6) vs. Oregon State Beavers (O/U 75.5)

    4 p.m. ET, Saturday
    Coughlin: Plenty has been made of Arizona's start to the season, as it got bulldozed by BYU and Houston in back-to-back weeks. They do have a win over South Utah, as does Oregon State. There has been improvement every week from the guys from Corvallis, and their coaching staff seems like it is right on the cusp getting that much needed first conference win. It is led by some electric talent, most specifically RB Jermar Jefferson, who's rushed for 391 yards in 3 games, averaging 7.1 yards per carry with 6 TDs. Wide Receiver Isaiah Hodginsis fresh off a game in which he snagged 14 balls for 200 yards. The Beavs will be ready for this one. I like the home dog in this spot.
    Pick: Oregon State +6
    Score: Oregon State 41, Arizona 38



    No. 23 Boston College Eagles (-6.5) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (O/U 66.5)

    12 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN)
    Fallica: Purdue has to be beside itself after another gutting defeat, which featured a questionable replay reversal. Three losses by a combined eight points. The Boilermakers could easily be 3-0, but instead sit at 0-3. Getting to six wins is going to be an uphill challenge from here, but I don't think Jeff Brohm's team is going to throw in the towel at all.
    Here's their chance to upset a ranked team and feel a whole lot better about themselves as they hit the road for two winnable games. David Blough had a huge game through the air last week and this just might be the week Purdue has the breaks go its way, as opposed to how things have unfolded thus far. BC survived one upset trap last week, but might not get past this one.
    Pick: Purdue +6.5
    Score: Purdue 33, Boston College 31



    NC State Wolfpack (-5.5) vs. Marshall Thundering Herd (O/U 57)

    7 p.m. ET, Saturday
    Steele: The Wolfpack have a veteran quarterback in Ryan Finley, but only nine starters returned from last year's team. This will be the Wolfpack's first road trip this year, against a Marshall squad that brought back 18 returning starters and stands at 17-7-1 ATS versus non-conference foes since 2013.
    The Wolfpack were led by an NFL-caliber defensive line last year, but Marshall may have the edge at that spot this year with all four starters gone on NC State's defensive line. The Wolfpack are also allowing teams to complete 67 percent of their passes so far this season. Both teams are coming off unexpected byes with their games canceled last week due to the hurricane. Marshall has covered six straight games as an underdog and the Wolfpack are 3-7 ATS their last 10 games as a favorite.
    Pick: Marshall +5.5
    Score: NC State 28, Marshall 27



    Navy Midshipmen (-6.5) vs. SMU Mustangs(O/U 63)

    12 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN News)
    Steele: Navy has won eight in a row in this series, and the last time it visited SMU it rolled to a 75-31 victory. Navy faced Lehigh this past week, have a bye on deck and carry an impressive 7-3 ATS record as an away favorite over the past four years. SMU is 4-12 as a home underdog the past five years. Kevin Kane is in his third year as a defensive coordinator, but this is his first time facing the option -- and SMU is coming off a physical loss at Michigan to top it all off.
    SMU quarterbacks combined to throw for 3,823 yards last year (58.1 completion percent, 35-13 TD-INT ratio). This year it is on pace for 2,292 yards (50.5 percent) with a 20-8 ratio. Navy's offense gets more potent as the season goes on and it is laying less than a touchdown here.
    Pick: Navy -6.5
    Score: Navy 42, SMU 27


    Falllica: I'll admit it -- I'm solely trusting our numbers, which have this game as a pick 'em, so taking the home dog appears to offer a good bit of value. SMU hasn't won a game yet, but it put together decent first halves vs. TCU and Michigan and could build on that here against a team that beat it by 44 in the last meeting in Dallas.
    Pick: SMU +6.5
    Score: SMU 38, Navy 37



    No. 18 Wisconsin Badgers (-3) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (O/U 43.5)

    8:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
    Steele: I am fully aware that Iowa, at night in Kinnick Stadium, has knocked off No. 2 Michigan and No. 3 Ohio State over the past two years. No. 4 Penn State also needed a touchdown pass on the last play of the game to escape with a one-point win last season. I still side with the Badgers here, as they are the more talented team and Paul Chryst is an excellent 7-0 ATS when his Wisconsin team is playing the next week after a loss.
    Two years ago, Wisconsin had a 423-236 yard edge at Kinnick and won by eight points. Last year, Wisconsin had an amazing 18-5 first down edge, and 382-66 yard edge with Iowa only scoring on two interception returns for touchdowns in a 38-14 game. The Big Ten West title is on the line in this game, and I will take the superior team in what is basically a must-win situation for the Badgers.
    Pick: Wisconsin -3
    Score: Wisconsin 20, Iowa 13

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    ikid2groove415
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    Iowa ML

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    DaColts
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    Thanks for all the great info!!

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    SEAHAWKHARRY
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    What's their records now?

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    jjgold
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    Playmaker
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    Clemson should roll today just hope they stay focused

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    SBR Drew
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