[Madison]

some "shit hits the fan" thoughts... look how easy it was to close every school, church, shopping mall, sporting event, etc in almost every major country... while telling people they could riot and loot, but couldn't visit their dying loved ones in the hospital, and couldn't have a wedding or funeral

3 of the 4 largest bank failures in history recently, dollar continues to lose purchasing power, generation z has no interest in work or motivation, heck they don't even know what gender they are in many cases

i would say the shit has already hit the fan and people just don't realize it yet

Scary ... mostly that I kind of agree with quite a bit of the later part of the stmt.

[Madison]

What a trade last 3 weeks. Chilean president moves the markets with some but little overall impact on ALB next 10 years. Rock solid company totally oversold. I went WAY over my skies and put my $$ where my mouth was and loaded at circa 172. Started to take profit on my "trade" last couple days.

These gifts come once in a great while. Still have my 10 year investment but as I have advertised here many times this is a screaming buy circa 200ish.

Also did well with SQM but they are a bit more leveraged to Chile's idiocincracies.

[milwaukee mike]

What a trade last 3 weeks. Chilean president moves the markets with some but little overall impact on ALB next 10 years. Rock solid company totally oversold. I went WAY over my skies and put my $$ where my mouth was and loaded at circa 172. Started to take profit on my "trade" last couple days.

These gifts come once in a great while. Still have my 10 year investment but as I have advertised here many times this is a screaming buy circa 200ish.

Also did well with SQM but they are a bit more leveraged to Chile's idiocincracies.

looks like ALB gets until 2043? so the company's max shelf life is 20 years? still looks interesting under 200, eps growth looks negative for next year, i respect cfra's analysts and they say $31/share down to $30/share

i like BTU more, similar type of situation where it's a ridiculously low p/e, but i think btu is higher reward and lower risk... coal prices have gotten crushed recently but they have a ton of hedges and a buyback for 1/3rd of their stock. my back of the envelope calculation says they make $8/share next year and the stock is at 23

[Slurry Pumper]

Today was a pretty good day for day trading as one of my numbers hit. I thought I was going to be screwed when the futures came up to but didn't get up to $415, then it didn't get back down to $411. But eventually the SPY came into $409 and spiked it a little bit then ripped back almost to $414. That' what I call a cha-ching type of day. I really only need like 20 of these a year and I could make a load. Anyway, I still think the markets are just hanging on by the finger nails here and the downturn is on the horizon. There could still be a rally from here to the number I posted for the upside, and if that happens, I'll trade those numbers as well. Until and unless the $422 is eclipsed or $404 the down side is closed below on a daily close basis, it just doesn't mean shyt and just chop shop stuff.

[Slurry Pumper]

I know you're thinking Mr. Pumper only looks at the SPY. How about switching it up today and talk the QQQs. I think we are ready to turn here. Today they are going to rig the numbers for inflation and we are likely to see a pop. The line in the sand for me is $330. I'll be loading up with some more of those PUTS that expire in late December and some that expire on Friday and even some that expire next week.
I unloaded the ZIM but will pick it up again at the $16.50 spot.
Finally are you as sick as I am hearing the America pays its bills BS? I am, if we payed the bills there would be no need to put more on the credit card. I can't help but wonder how the Republicans are going to squander the leverage they got with the debt ceiling. They always grab defeat from the jaws of victory, but this is their best hand they have had in a long time going into a made up crisis.

[Madison]

looks like ALB gets until 2043? so the company's max shelf life is 20 years? still looks interesting under 200, eps growth looks negative for next year, i respect cfra's analysts and they say $31/share down to $30/share

i like BTU more, similar type of situation where it's a ridiculously low p/e, but i think btu is higher reward and lower risk... coal prices have gotten crushed recently but they have a ton of hedges and a buyback for 1/3rd of their stock. my back of the envelope calculation says they make $8/share next year and the stock is at 23

I should have had you help me buy the options when it hit 172. I'm so old school and stuck in my ways. I did pretty well but could have crushed the 1 or 2 month call option. Don't get old.

[KDeen10]

some "shit hits the fan" thoughts... look how easy it was to close every school, church, shopping mall, sporting event, etc in almost every major country... while telling people they could riot and loot, but couldn't visit their dying loved ones in the hospital, and couldn't have a wedding or funeral

3 of the 4 largest bank failures in history recently, dollar continues to lose purchasing power, generation z has no interest in work or motivation, heck they don't even know what gender they are in many cases

i would say the shit has already hit the fan and people just don't realize it yet

That's not "shit hitting the fan". Shit hitting the fan is what's going on in Lebanon, that's not going to happen here.

Americans have it so good that they look for problems.

deen you sound like a condescending know-it-all

"stop it" "you people" "i'm calling you out"... these aren't words adults use in civil discussions

I am condescending but I don't think I know it all however I do think I know the points I made are completely valid. I do agree that my presentation needs a lot of work. My points are A+ my prsentation is a D- at best and it's my fault because I understand your thought process and where it comes from therefore I should now better how to address it.

I'll work on my presentation.

[Snowball]

[Snowball]

[milwaukee mike]

That's not "shit hitting the fan". Shit hitting the fan is what's going on in Lebanon, that's not going to happen here.

Americans have it so good that they look for problems.




I am condescending but I don't think I know it all however I do think I know the points I made are completely valid. I do agree that my presentation needs a lot of work. My points are A+ my prsentation is a D- at best and it's my fault because I understand your thought process and where it comes from therefore I should now better how to address it.

I'll work on my presentation.

you make some good, interesting points

we'll agree to disagree on whether or not this country is doomed... heck look at the 100%+ inflation in argentina, and they have way less debt to gdp than the usa

even when times are good and interest rates are low, the usa has been spending way more than they take in, and cities are still deteriorating quickly... how many countries have block after block of people living in tents and injecting heroin/shitting on the sidewalk? we are already 3rd world imho

[KDeen10]

you make some good, interesting points

we'll agree to disagree on whether or not this country is doomed... heck look at the 100%+ inflation in argentina, and they have way less debt to gdp than the usa

even when times are good and interest rates are low, the usa has been spending way more than they take in, and cities are still deteriorating quickly... how many countries have block after block of people living in tents and injecting heroin/shitting on the sidewalk? we are already 3rd world imho

The problem with our cities it drug trafficking. Legalizing all drugs would be the best thing that can happen now and it's happening. Weed is first, now moving on to psychedelics, and eventually all drugs will be legal. At that point the cities can start to rebuild themselves.

Any of ya'll want to meet up in Canada and blow some lines? Canada is getting ready to dispense legal cocaine made by drug companies.

[milwaukee mike]

The problem with our cities it drug trafficking. Legalizing all drugs would be the best thing that can happen now and it's happening. Weed is first, now moving on to psychedelics, and eventually all drugs will be legal. At that point the cities can start to rebuild themselves.

Any of ya'll want to meet up in Canada and blow some lines? Canada is getting ready to dispense legal cocaine made by drug companies.

i agree all drugs should be legal

but how in the world are these cities going to rebuild themselves? more than 1/2 the people in our largest cities don't even speak english as their first language. and almost no men under the age of 25 want to do any work whatsoever, not even a little... my son and all the neighbor boys in their 20s just fukk around playing video games all day and don't care about money at all. that's why you have all these young white men in tents, they just don't care whether they have money or not, as long as they don't have to do any actual work... the drug use is just from boredom of not working in many cases.

[KDeen10]

i agree all drugs should be legal

but how in the world are these cities going to rebuild themselves? more than 1/2 the people in our largest cities don't even speak english as their first language. and almost no men under the age of 25 want to do any work whatsoever, not even a little... my son and all the neighbor boys in their 20s just fukk around playing video games all day and don't care about money at all. that's why you have all these young white men in tents, they just don't care whether they have money or not, as long as they don't have to do any actual work... the drug use is just from boredom of not working in many cases.

More than 1/2 is extreme. We do have a lot of immigrants I'll give you that but believe it or not we need them for a workforce because they are willing to work. Grandma and Grandpa are not the ones immigrating it's young people and that's what we need since our birthrate is below 2 immigrants not included. The language barrier is not or will not be as big of a deal because AI will be able to.... actually I think there's an AI model out now that can translate any language and it even understands "meaning".

You're definitely right about the youth playing video games all day long but life is becoming "gamafied" and I really don't know how to explain that to you.

I definitely agree that drug use for the most part is out of boredom.

[KVB]

Watchout, this could still be walking down.

A lot of uncertainty even though there is a lot of certainty.

[milwaukee mike]

More than 1/2 is extreme. We do have a lot of immigrants I'll give you that but believe it or not we need them for a workforce because they are willing to work. Grandma and Grandpa are not the ones immigrating it's young people and that's what we need since our birthrate is below 2 immigrants not included. The language barrier is not or will not be as big of a deal because AI will be able to.... actually I think there's an AI model out now that can translate any language and it even understands "meaning".

You're definitely right about the youth playing video games all day long but life is becoming "gamafied" and I really don't know how to explain that to you.

I definitely agree that drug use for the most part is out of boredom.

it's the truth... NYC 49% speak a foreign language at home, Houston 49%, LA 59%
and those numbers are outdated by 5 years, houston and nyc are certainly over 50% now
https://cis.org/Report/Almost-Half-S...2038%20percent.

[KDeen10]

i agree all drugs should be legal

but how in the world are these cities going to rebuild themselves? more than 1/2 the people in our largest cities don't even speak english as their first language. and almost no men under the age of 25 want to do any work whatsoever, not even a little... my son and all the neighbor boys in their 20s just fukk around playing video games all day and don't care about money at all. that's why you have all these young white men in tents, they just don't care whether they have money or not, as long as they don't have to do any actual work... the drug use is just from boredom of not working in many cases.

Ok so in a few cities that may be true but to answer your question on how the cities will rebuild themselves.

First all drugs will become legal. This will more or less eliminate drug traffickers and you're seeing that with weed now the black market is dying fast. No drug dealers means no crime related to them which makes up the majority of crimes in almost every city. When the local news reports a man was shot dead they don't mentioned that he ripped off his coke dealer. Once these types of crimes are drastically reduced the cities will start rebuilding the low income areas.

The cities will be rebuilding anyway after the bulldozers tear down all the useless commercial real estate. The banks may offer no or low interest loans to remodel the old houses or tear them down and rebuild them.

[milwaukee mike]

the fact that more than half the population either works for the government, or gets benefits from the government... that i consider problem #1, and problem #2 as i said is the young men in this country will never put forth the hard work and effort that generations before them have

talk to a farmer, the only people they can get to work are girls

[ChuckyTheGoat]

the fact that more than half the population either works for the government, or gets benefits from the government... that i consider problem #1, and problem #2 as i said is the young men in this country will never put forth the hard work and effort that generations before them have

talk to a farmer, the only people they can get to work are girls

Very interesting, Mike. Diminishing motivation is obvious. Also, diminishing skill. Almost impossible to get decent service on ANYTHING now.

[Snowball]

Not lovin' it.

[Slurry Pumper]

I don't know a full 75% of my kids are actually working for me and doing a pretty good job. I even employ a few of their friends. It does hurt that I had to fully train them from the ground up and that training continues to this day on some of the basics.
The markets just refuse to go down just like my 1st girlfriend in high school back in the day. They have had several opportunities to fall off the cliff this week only to have a rescue operation to close above the 20DMA. I'm still expecting a market turn here as the line in the sand for both the SPY and QQQ have not been met, but the down side hasn't happened either. The market is just giving a few day trades with a reversal in the middle of the day so it has been pretty easy to predict. One of these days the markets will start 1 way or the other, and accelerate in that direction and catch all the day traders. Now with all of these non event daily closes coming off of a significant move up to just under the 100 WMA for the SPY and QQQ have things really looking bullish. The IWM looks totally different and has a decisive bearish signal going on with the weekly chart. Dow Transports, SMH are meh, neither good nor bad, while the XLF looks like a bearish sentiment is going on. KRE continues to look like shyt and if you have been shorting the small banks, this is not showing any signs of turning around anytime soon. Gold has flattened out a bit, and I expect that pull back to the mid 1950 level here in the coming weeks before continuing. Silver went down this week like an eager pleaser I met in Chili last month, the miners has done the same for now but by the end of the year, I think they recover and start making new highs still.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

The markets just refuse to go down just like my 1st girlfriend in high school back in the day.

...Maybe she thought the Ronald McDonald outfit was a turn-off.

[Slurry Pumper]

Turns out she wasn't lovin it either.

[milwaukee mike]

Very interesting, Mike. Diminishing motivation is obvious. Also, diminishing skill. Almost impossible to get decent service on ANYTHING now.

very good point

i got (1) thing right out of the 4 i ordered at taco bell for lunch today... even used the kiosk to avoid human error in the order taking process

called 2 separate painters to paint a couple rooms and remove some wallpaper, neither has even returned my call in over a week... same situation with plumbers, siding, roof, driveway... even getting someone to show up at any price is difficult

[milwaukee mike]

i don't think gold is going back down to 1950, but if it does i'll just keep selling other stuff to buy more

vno preferreds continue to trade at irrational levels... if the common is even worth $1 then the preferreds are worth 25... i'm still under the belief that interest rates will be lower a year from now, especially on the short end, even if they're not, these 10% yields on so many preferreds and junk bonds are tempting

[KDeen10]

the fact that more than half the population either works for the government, or gets benefits from the government... that i consider problem #1, and problem #2 as i said is the young men in this country will never put forth the hard work and effort that generations before them have
talk to a farmer, the only people they can get to work are girls

I understand the point Mike but remember something... AI will absorb much if not all the work that kids are not willing to do.

McDonalds just opened it's first fully automated restaurant. Your order will be perfect.

If kids don't want to work, hell with them by the time they go back looking for that job they didn't want, it won't be there because a robot or AI in some form will be doing the job. A hotel in Cincinnati I can't remember the name has a robot that takes towels and other items to the rooms. It costs the hotel 2K a month. This is A LOT cheaper than a human and it can work 24/7 with no breaks with no attitude or sluggishness.

This is just the beginning. None of you are considering the actual implications of AI and the impact it's going to make. The impact will be in ways you may not have even considered. As Cuban said MILLIONS of jobs will be displaced. Dominos driverless delivery. That van is made by Nuro out of Palo Alto Cali. and they provide that delivery van to Kroger and some other retailers. Think of how many delivery drivers of all kinds there are... ALL GONE in 15 years and that's just 2 huge employers restaurants and drivers. It'll be more than just those 2.

[milwaukee mike]

oh i agree about AI, but that just means there's even MORE "useless eaters" in this country

how in the world can you have a functioning economy with 300-400 million people, when you really need less than 1 million of those to do all the work? you can't play fiat money games forever and have 1 million people support 300 million

you call them kids but we're talking about 25 year old men. men that will become angry and violent when they realize they no longer get free food and shelter, and really have no ability to earn a living because small businesses are gone, and large businesses are all robots

[KDeen10]

oh i agree about AI, but that just means there's even MORE "useless eaters" in this country

how in the world can you have a functioning economy with 300-400 million people, when you really need less than 1 million of those to do all the work? you can't play fiat money games forever and have 1 million people support 300 million

you call them kids but we're talking about 25 year old men. men that will become angry and violent when they realize they no longer get free food and shelter, and really have no ability to earn a living because small businesses are gone, and large businesses are all robots

You're making that assessment based on today's structure. It's hard to imagine tomorrow's world because our perspective is limited. Half of the jobs in 1900 were agriculture and now it's less than 5% and falling. People back then couldn't have imagined a world and an economy like we have today. A farmer may make 50K or 100K feeding people but someone playing a sport may make 20 Million throwing a ball around. Can you imagine the reaction from people in 1900 had someone told them the future?

Again if most everything is automated 1 million can support 400 million but you're looking at it from today's economic structure. We can't imagine tomorrow's economy anymore than a farmer in 1900 can imagine today. People do get paid to play video games as crazy as that sounds to me.

[d2bets]

oh i agree about AI, but that just means there's even MORE "useless eaters" in this country

how in the world can you have a functioning economy with 300-400 million people, when you really need less than 1 million of those to do all the work? you can't play fiat money games forever and have 1 million people support 300 million

you call them kids but we're talking about 25 year old men. men that will become angry and violent when they realize they no longer get free food and shelter, and really have no ability to earn a living because small businesses are gone, and large businesses are all robots

There are always going to be trades. Building and fixing stuff. Not all going to be automated. You have some point, but greatly exaggerated.

I admit I'm going to be pissed if the dollars I've been accumulating become worthless. But I figure the only thing worse than having a lot of dollars will be not having any.

[KDeen10]

There are always going to be trades. Building and fixing stuff. Not all going to be automated. You have some point, but greatly exaggerated.

I admit I'm going to be pissed if the dollars I've been accumulating become worthless. But I figure the only thing worse than having a lot of dollars will be not having any.

I don't think so.

[milwaukee mike]

There are always going to be trades. Building and fixing stuff. Not all going to be automated. You have some point, but greatly exaggerated.

I admit I'm going to be pissed if the dollars I've been accumulating become worthless. But I figure the only thing worse than having a lot of dollars will be not having any.

a robot can build and fix stuff, and build and fix other robots, much better/faster/cheaper than a human can... even in 2023 technology, which is only going to get better

[Slurry Pumper]

Waiting for the markets to make a move is the hardest part. I'm still in the bear camp, but there can also be a short squeeze situation here brewing. Things will remain calm until it isn't and I expect once a move starts, it will be pretty explosive.

[Madison]

Don't get much feedback on my Lithium plays, but boy the sector seems to be making a significant move.

Fk GS for driving it down while I believe they were padding their holdings but that's a discussion for another day.

Chucky ... trust you are watching/profiting??

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Don't get much feedback on my Lithium plays, but boy the sector seems to be making a significant move.

Fk GS for driving it down while I believe they were padding their holdings but that's a discussion for another day.

Chucky ... trust you are watching/profiting??

Mad...I have been tracking LAC. Doing well.

Have some LITOF, too. Have a nice portfolio of Metals. Feel pretty good right now, can't see how Metals aren't a good sector to be in.

[milwaukee mike]

Mad...I have been tracking LAC. Doing well.

Have some LITOF, too. Have a nice portfolio of Metals. Feel pretty good right now, can't see how Metals aren't a good sector to be in.

lac is still super cheap

[Madison]

FYI, LAC will likely be splitting South America mines and their NA mines into 2 distinct companies. Target 7/31 I believe.