1. #12006
    jjgold
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    Ranger your a major square

    Majority Options are not liquid Therefore the the bid ask is too wide impossible and cannot get out of trades

    If your trading any Form of options they must be very liquid and mid to high volatility or they expire worthless meaning they move too little and you lose if your a buyer of calls and puts

  2. #12007
    Slurry Pumper
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    Well yesterday the markets started flat for the 1st half hour maybe and that was enough for me to dump those PUTS I had. Kind of looking for a pause here and possibly drifting back down to the 50 DMA for support on the SPY. If it does pause, I just might take a little capital and gets me some short term IWM calls that expire Aug 5th with the strike of $188. The cost about $1.50 so for a $1500 bet you can get 10 of these things. They are out of the money but options are all about where the price is going. If this rally continues small and mid caps will make a move. A similar set up for the QQQs as well.

  3. #12008
    flyingillini
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Ranger your a major square

    Majority Options are not liquid Therefore the the bid ask is too wide impossible and cannot get out of trades

    If your trading any Form of options they must be very liquid and mid to high volatility or they expire worthless meaning they move too little and you lose if your a buyer of calls and puts
    Well said, Slats

  4. #12009
    RangeFinder
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Ranger your a major square

    Majority Options are not liquid Therefore the the bid ask is too wide impossible and cannot get out of trades

    If your trading any Form of options they must be very liquid and mid to high volatility or they expire worthless meaning they move too little and you lose if your a buyer of calls and puts

    I've been trading options for 25 years, you're wrong. I've never had a problem liquidating because I don't get myself into large positions.

  5. #12010
    milwaukee mike
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    wow this is just horrible guidance from a "real company"boston beer (sam) essentially said for 2h they will make between $1.70 and $6.70/share... ridiculously big range and middle of the range the stock is trading at 35x with negative growthunreal that this stock was almost $1300/share, even at $300/share it's way too high compared with other beverage makers/distributors... even if hard mtn dew goes ballistic, they are giving too much of it away to pepsi

  6. #12011
    RangeFinder
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    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    wow this is just horrible guidance from a "real company"boston beer (sam) essentially said for 2h they will make between $1.70 and $6.70/share... ridiculously big range and middle of the range the stock is trading at 35x with negative growthunreal that this stock was almost $1300/share, even at $300/share it's way too high compared with other beverage makers/distributors... even if hard mtn dew goes ballistic, they are giving too much of it away to pepsi
    35x is way too high in this environment. I personally stick to 18 or below in bear markets.

  7. #12012
    Slurry Pumper
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    Quote Originally Posted by RangeFinder View Post
    35x is way too high in this environment. I personally stick to 18 or below in bear markets.
    Yeah, I look to short those companies when things turn south, which they will soon enough. I know I don't tout actual companies that much, but I do trade some of them from time to time, and I'm looking for a stock that has high price to earnings.

    I did buy those IWM Calls this morning when the SPY was nice enough to come down near the 50 DMA before turning around to the upside. I got them at $0.98 and they close already at $1.44. I took about 35% of the seed money out already so unless something happens like we wake up to a catastrofuk, I'll make the money back tht I lost on an earlier trade this week. I also did the same thing for the QQQa which is doing even better percentage wise although the start price was higher. Actually it is right up against some pretty serious resistance coming at around the $310 area.

    Also liking the FLS (Flowserve). That is a company that I do some work for from time to time and they are the company that keeps all that fossil fuel moving around in the refineries, nuke plants, natural gas facilities, etc. The just broke above the 50 DMA and the top of the range after some consolidation. They report on Wednesday so maybe just take a little peek and see what happens before jumping in.

  8. #12013
    alling
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    No

    The only people that make money in the option market are premium sellers

    Itís statistically impossible to buy puts and calls and turn a profit long term most expire worthless Iím still teaching guys
    SPY and even QQQ options are very liquid with tight spreads newbie. Please post your market sentiment. I'm positive you're excellent fade material.

  9. #12014
    KnuckleHeadz
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slurry Pumper View Post
    Yeah, I look to short those companies when things turn south, which they will soon enough. I know I don't tout actual companies that much, but I do trade some of them from time to time, and I'm looking for a stock that has high price to earnings.

    I did buy those IWM Calls this morning when the SPY was nice enough to come down near the 50 DMA before turning around to the upside. I got them at $0.98 and they close already at $1.44. I took about 35% of the seed money out already so unless something happens like we wake up to a catastrofuk, I'll make the money back tht I lost on an earlier trade this week. I also did the same thing for the QQQa which is doing even better percentage wise although the start price was higher. Actually it is right up against some pretty serious resistance coming at around the $310 area.

    Also liking the FLS (Flowserve). That is a company that I do some work for from time to time and they are the company that keeps all that fossil fuel moving around in the refineries, nuke plants, natural gas facilities, etc. The just broke above the 50 DMA and the top of the range after some consolidation. They report on Wednesday so maybe just take a little peek and see what happens before jumping in.
    MPC

  10. #12015
    flyingillini
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    Does Apple hit 110 or 180 first ?

  11. #12016
    ex50warrior
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    Quote Originally Posted by flyingillini View Post
    Does Apple hit 110 or 180 first ?
    I'll go with 180.

    ECB finally raised rates 50 basis points...from negative to zero. But they also started a new ECB QE program. Even if rates edge up a bit higher the central bank liquidity should keep the markets from the collapse some are predicting.

  12. #12017
    kidcudi92
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    This weekly chart looks spicy. Even with the world events...man that's a chart to like. We will see what happens if it bumps up against the 50MA



  13. #12018
    homie1975
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    Tsla baby

  14. #12019
    Slurry Pumper
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    So today is all about protecting the profits today for me. While this latest rally broke out of a recent range, the last couple of days have seen the buyers drying up, and a little defiance of bad news. Going into the weekend, before the end of the day unless I see some buying volume which I am not predicting, I'll take the week's profits and actually start with the PUTS train if we find the SPY filling a gap to $401.44, otherwise, I'll wait to see the tape on Monday before jumping on board. Next week has pullback written all over it and seems inevitable to me. The question is can the markets hold the 50DMA on the SPY, and the line in the sand which is the 20 DMA at $385. On the QQQ's its can it hold $296.30, and then the convergence of the 20 and 50 DMA which will probably happen either Monday or Tuesday at around $293.
    The IWM and SMH are all about the 50 and 20 DMA as well even though they are farther away, and as such will be my target PUT train action early in the week. If at the end of the week the moving averages can hold, then that will confirm the upwards channel is still intact and the CALLs party train can resume.

  15. #12020
    teecee
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    Quote Originally Posted by homie1975 View Post
    Tsla baby
    Heard the stock moved equal to VW market cap in two days. Why?

    Nvrmnd. Quick find. Saw earnings were out.
    175 pts

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  16. #12021
    Slurry Pumper
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    Spy needs to bounce here for the Friday float mode to be in effect.

  17. #12022
    chico2663
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    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    wow this is just horrible guidance from a "real company"boston beer (sam) essentially said for 2h they will make between $1.70 and $6.70/share... ridiculously big range and middle of the range the stock is trading at 35x with negative growthunreal that this stock was almost $1300/share, even at $300/share it's way too high compared with other beverage makers/distributors... even if hard mtn dew goes ballistic, they are giving too much of it away to pepsi
    If you are talking about Samuel adams met the owner in cincy. They have a place in cincy and n. Ky . Nice dude

  18. #12023
    Slurry Pumper
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    So I unloaded the Calls on Friday and started dabbling with the Puts for the QQQs, and IWM to day is starting with a little rebound from Friday, so if the SPY can fill the gap of 401.28, I buy some Puts there too.

  19. #12024
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by chico2663 View Post
    If you are talking about Samuel adams met the owner in cincy. They have a place in cincy and n. Ky . Nice dude
    good to hear... way too often we just hear the BAD side of encounters with owners/celebrities/athletes

  20. #12025
    Slurry Pumper
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    After a day of rest yesterday, the big news of the week starts today and keeps coming all week. As I look around the indices, I see bull flags forming. Even though I'm on the short train for the moment, be aware that the dow transports are making a very nice bull flag pattern on the daily chart. That is one of my favorite leading indicators. While the IWM has pulled back a little since the start of business on Friday, it too is holding up. Same thing is going on all over the place so what are the numbers for the lines in the sand?

    SPY: 390 to start, 385 (20 DMA), below that may be trouble
    IWM: 176.50 (50 DMA), 174.50, 172 is the more than a pullback scenario
    QQQ: 296.50, 292ish (50 & 20 DMA), 285.25 is the look out below number
    SMH: 220.50 (bounce ahead of yesterday), 210.25 is a failure point
    XLF: 32.75 (Its right there now riding the 50 DMA), 32.25, 32 (20 DMA) is the line for failure.

    How about a stock that I rarely put out there for a longer term consideration (1 to 3 months at least)?
    I put out there an advance alert for Flowserve (FLS) or Flowswerve as I like to call them. They too are making a bull flag pattern just above the 50 DMA ($29.60) at (29.95) this morning. Remember they report tomorrow after the close, and the earnings meeting is on Thursday at 11 AM if you are one of those that like to hear the company rah rah sessions. Just like to point out that I don't like holding anything before a company reports. Wait until after before stepping in.

    Finally I have to admit I'm disappointed in gold here, giant inflation for the last year and gold is seemingly flat on its face. Yesterday the miners got smacked around like Tina Turner back talking to Ike while on tour.
    I'm still putting steady amounts of money in every month now for the last, I don't know 5 years now and eventually they will have their day in the sun, but it doesn't seem like its going to happen any time soon, which means its probably right around the corner. That's the way the markets always work, it always looks the crappiest before the mine hits as they say.

  21. #12026
    milwaukee mike
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    physical gold and silver are so cheap right now, vs where i think they should be... holding some of those is probably a good idea for everyone

    MUX stock needed a 1-10 split today just to get back to $3 ugh... i'm down over 90% on that one, add some others in the mix like CDE and i have been destroyed on miners

  22. #12027
    Slurry Pumper
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    Ahead of the Fed I'm going to take profits on my Puts and sit back to see what happens. Come back tomorrow and make another play.

  23. #12028
    RangeFinder
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    I dumped my Put yesterday on SPY. Not sure it was the right move but took the bird in the hand. I'm going to day trade a couple options to the upside on the open and dump mid day, then watch to see where the momentum goes into the close, which could very well be to the downside. This economy is looking worse by the day and it's going to hit these markets bigly within a week.

  24. #12029
    RangeFinder
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    Powell just smoozhed the markets. Up almost 5% on the NASDAQ, 1.8% elsewhere across indices. This is a band aide, pure and simple. I think profit taking hits as early as tomorrow morning.

  25. #12030
    milwaukee mike
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    profit taking? what are profits? lol

  26. #12031
    Snowball
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    probably turn back down in August
    more seriously

    watch Ukraine because there is a major offensive coming to take it all

    DONETSK, July 27 - RIA Novosti. The head of the Donetsk People's Republic, Denis Pushilin, called for expanding the zone of the special operation for the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine.
    "Today it's time to re-liberate Russian cities founded by Russian people: Kiev , Chernihiv , Poltava , Odessa , Dnepropetrovsk , Kharkov , Zaporozhye , Lutsk," he wrote in the Telegram channel.


    https://ria-ru.translate.goog/202207..._x_tr_pto=wapp

  27. #12032
    RangeFinder
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    What worries me, is a lot of these large companies came out with poor earnings, but then give great forward guidance which vaulted the markets forward along with Powells comments. Nothing of substance, but all hot air with no proof that they will make all this money they
    say they will. This is market manipulation if you ask me. This is going to end badly, I think.

  28. #12033
    Slurry Pumper
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    The Fed comes out and totally lies and the markets shoot up the charts. Lately it has been the day after the Fed that has been the big dump day. I have to admit that all the indices are making bullish signs here, and it does seem like we are in a bad news is good news cycle, so after today, if we don't get too much profit taking, I think the markets start driving up for another run up the hill. I'll be interested to see how everyone reacts to the Nation being in a recession which will be announced in a few hours.

    My boys over at FLS reported and the stock shot up on better than expected earnings and today during the phone call, I think they will announce better than usual outlook as everything oil has been holding back while things are starting to get old and need replacements. The price shot right up ($31.34) to just under the 100 DMA ($31.71), and resistance ($31.90), and 200 DMA ($32.12). I'm waiting to see if the price hangs out here just under all of those levels for a while gaining energy to push through, or if it got over its skis a little bit and pulls back to the 50DMA ($29.65). If it comes back down to back test the breakout area, I'm a buyer, and if it doesn't get rejected for the next 2-4 days and keeps the gains from yesterday, I'll be a buyer there as well. Oddly enough if it just pushes through the resistance levels here , I'll wait and pass on this parabolic move and probably move on marking this as a missed opportunity because I didn't want to hold when they reported.

  29. #12034
    Snowball
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    The Fed lacks creativity because there is no political creativity in the U.S. on either the left nor the right. We need to remember that it is a politicized Fed, and when the politicians demand endless spending, money printing and asset inflation, the Fed is going to act in the best interest of the banks.. now, the best interest of the banks is not to crush consumers and borrowers, so that existing loans are maintained.

    In previous times when loans were not maintained, our politicians were all too eager to debase the currency to make Wall Street whole again. There are many reasons why that approach is no longer sound. They range from geopolitical to domestic inflation, from the macro to the micro. There could be more creative solutions, which I won't get into right now, but those are not possible without a political mandate. They would involve executive and legislative actions, which the Fed is not allowed to perform.

    Therefore, rates will continue to be raised until the infation cools off, at which point they won't be lowered, for months or years afterward, until the Fed interprets enough data to reverse policy; that would be very unlikely until at least 2025. So, we're going to pass through a cycle of reactive constraint on the equities market and the commodities market. We're going to have a correction in the housing market also, that will take months to unfold because most Americans are in denial concerning the housing market and are still holding homes off the market. They will capitulate gradually, and the supply will rise, at a time when capable demand is hampered by mortage rates and cautious lenders.

    Some sectors will benefit. Retail, for example.. volumes will increase, margins will expand, and the consumer goods market will pick up again, as deflationary forces take hold, but that's still a few months off. So, it should result in a strong holiday shopping season. If you're willing to dig into financial reports and screeners, look for companies in these sectors with low operations margins, or even slightly negative operating margins, that have swung to low earnings or losses on declining sales volumes during the massive inflation spike. They will recoup the sales volumes as prices stabilize then drop, resulting in higher earnings again.

    Before you consider buying, wait for another selloff, it's not even August yet. Another month.
    Last edited by Snowball; 07-28-22 at 07:17 AM.

  30. #12035
    Slurry Pumper
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    The Fed lacks creativity because there is no political creativity in the U.S. on either the left nor the right. We need to remember that it is a politicized Fed, and when the politicians demand endless spending, money printing and asset inflation, the Fed is going to act in the best interest of the banks.. now, the best interest of the banks is not to crush consumers and borrowers, so that existing loans are maintained.

    In previous times when loans were not maintained, our politicians were all too eager to debase the currency to make Wall Street whole again. There are many reasons why that approach is no longer sound. They range from geopolitical to domestic inflation, from the macro to the micro. There could be more creative solutions, which I won't get into right now, but those are not possible without a political mandate. They would involve executive and legislative actions, which the Fed is not allowed to perform.

    Therefore, rates will continue to be raised until the infation cools off, at which point they won't be lowered, for months or years afterward, until the Fed interprets enough data to reverse policy; that would be very unlikely until at least 2025. So, we're going to pass through a cycle of reactive constraint on the equities market and the commodities market. We're going to have a correction in the housing market also, that will take months to unfold because most Americans are in denial concerning the housing market and are still holding homes off the market. They will capitulate gradually, and the supply will rise, at a time when capable demand is hampered by mortage rates and cautious lenders.

    Some sectors will benefit. Retail, for example.. volumes will increase, margins will expand, and the consumer goods market will pick up again, as deflationary forces take hold, but that's still a few months off. So, it should result in a strong holiday shopping season. If you're willing to dig into financial reports and screeners, look for companies in these sectors with low operations margins, or even slightly negative operating margins, that have swung to low earnings or losses on declining sales volumes during the massive inflation spike. They will recoup the sales volumes as prices stabilize then drop, resulting in higher earnings again.

    The overused, controversial term "recession" is bereft of real meaning. It's become nothing but a political javelin.
    I don't think the Fed has the stones to continue with the rate hikes. Each little bit increases the payments on the debt, and lawmakers are already starting to exacerbate the inflation with spending programs. I think inflation is the goal while transforming away from fossil fuels. Good enough I guess, but the people doing it don't have the intelligence needed to pull it off.
    Inflation will stay elevated, the Fed will be forced to stop raising rates at about 3.5%, congress will continue to hand out free cash, and the overall economy will suffer. Housing will crumble slowly at 1st, but the acceleration will happen.

  31. #12036
    Snowball
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slurry Pumper View Post
    I don't think the Fed has the stones to continue with the rate hikes. Each little bit increases the payments on the debt, and lawmakers are already starting to exacerbate the inflation with spending programs. I think inflation is the goal while transforming away from fossil fuels. Good enough I guess, but the people doing it don't have the intelligence needed to pull it off.
    Inflation will stay elevated, the Fed will be forced to stop raising rates at about 3.5%, congress will continue to hand out free cash, and the overall economy will suffer. Housing will crumble slowly at 1st, but the acceleration will happen.
    Well, you know the Fed could continue raising rates until inflation not only stops but reverses course, as the target they want, that 2% is an annual rate of inflation, so I believe they are open to the idea but hoping they don't have to go above 4%. They shouldn't have to. The wild card is difficulty in getting energy costs to stop rising at a time when yes, that transition away from FF's is mandated, and also the prospects of continuing or new wars would keep energy costs from depreciating. I don't see any huge spending programs when the Congress is in political mode now, elections on tap and the GOP actually wants a recession or worse to blame Democrats for. If the GOP wins back a majority or both majorities, the only spending they will approve of is military. Overall I see the broad indexes 8-12% lower in 3-6 weeks time, then a period of stabilization which may be a good entry for certain sectors like consumer discretionary and entertainment/gambling.

  32. #12037
    Fishhead
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    BRANDON has the country in a financial mess
    175 pts

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  33. #12038
    Greget
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fishhead View Post
    BRANDON has the country in a financial mess
    3.5 % unemployment, you could get a job if you left your trailer. My personal financial situation has never been better, land prices are surging. Try taking responsibility for yourself instead of being a bitch and blaming others for your own laziness.

  34. #12039
    Slurry Pumper
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    Well, you know the Fed could continue raising rates until inflation not only stops but reverses course, as the target they want, that 2% is an annual rate of inflation, so I believe they are open to the idea but hoping they don't have to go above 4%. They shouldn't have to. The wild card is difficulty in getting energy costs to stop rising at a time when yes, that transition away from FF's is mandated, and also the prospects of continuing or new wars would keep energy costs from depreciating. I don't see any huge spending programs when the Congress is in political mode now, elections on tap and the GOP actually wants a recession or worse to blame Democrats for. If the GOP wins back a majority or both majorities, the only spending they will approve of is military. Overall I see the broad indexes 8-12% lower in 3-6 weeks time, then a period of stabilization which may be a good entry for certain sectors like consumer discretionary and entertainment/gambling.
    I think we are largely on the same page, any addition spending programs have about a month to happen before things get shut down for the election. I think 8-12 % is generous on your part and I was thinking about another 20%, but all in all, I have very similar thoughts on the future.

  35. #12040
    Snowball
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slurry Pumper View Post
    I think we are largely on the same page, any addition spending programs have about a month to happen before things get shut down for the election. I think 8-12 % is generous on your part and I was thinking about another 20%, but all in all, I have very similar thoughts on the future.
    Yep. We definitely agree on what is actionable, and that's all that matters. I posted 10% down in 3-4 weeks on stocktwits and another guy agreed but went to 15%, and here you are calling for 20%. I certainly think 20%-32% is possible in the medium-term, but I was only talking about this next leg down.


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