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+EV
Hi there. I'm rather new to betting. And think I finally got the handle on +EV. My question is should I be betting every game that has positive EV, no matter how small the edge is? If I believe that a team has .5% edge should I be betting that? Or only when I believe a team has 1-10% edge.
My suggestion is to have a buffer zone for room for error. Remember, when crunching numbers for sports it is speculative. I personally need a 10% edge from my numbers compared to the books. That being said, I make anywhere form 3-5% of money I put through during the course of a year. So, as you ca see, there are errors that occur during the process. In a perfect world, I'd like to make that 10% long term but that is just not reality.
Range Finder so your saying you make 5% a year from sportsbetting?
5% is a good year. Some years 3%. It fluctuates.Originally Posted by jjgold
Do you mean ROI or % of start bank?
ROI
That is terrible actually for high risk
go put 100k in diverse mutual funds with very little long term risk
Heck banks give 1.5% if you shop around
Unless I am missing something 3% is horrific
Yes, bet every game you have an edge. If not, you're leaving money on the table.
But the reality is, you have no clue what your edge really is, so you're probably better off just flat betting for fun. You might understand or think you understand EV and EG but you don't know your edge.
Good luck
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Correct me if I'm wrong. I handicapped that the yankees today would have a 58% chance of winning today. I got them at -100 at pinnacle which is odviously 50%. So I had an 8% edge correct? Odviously as of right now the game is not going my way. But thats sports.
That would be your edge. This is why I have a buffer. I had the Jays at winning 59%, got +101. At least if I was wrong, I'm at +odds which is where I like to be. That way I don't have to hit at a high percentage to show a profit.
As well I have the White Sox at 47% chance to win. Locked them in at +151 which means they have to win 39.84% of the time. So I have a 6.14% edge. Correct?
Can you explain your buffer zone to me? I'm not fully sure what you mean.
Room for error basically. You can choose whatever you want that to be. Numbers are never exact in sports betting so you want some wiggle room on your numbers.
I like Range's response. You need a "margin for error."
My feeling is that you should target a +5% expected ROI. That leaves u some margin for error. If u come up a little short of +5%, u still make $$.
Good topic, tho. Shoot for a Target ROI.
Per usual...you're missing something.
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16%
17.97%
Idiot. Only a handful of bettors in the world have a 3% edge. That's 3% for a 3-12 hour hold time -- not 12 months. Try to beat that with a bank account.
@rangefinder Do you track your plays publicly anywhere?
I don't. It can only create problems. Sorry.
Only way you can track my plays is through my posts if you want to put the time in.
How did you come up with 58% and why did the market differ? How much do you bet with that edge
Tell me about it...lol.
I know all too well.
Why would tracking your record create problems?
You should, unless you're not very good at handicapping. Because then, a lot games you see as +EV probably aren't, then you lose a lot of money.
But kracken gets 8% on his money legally from the banks just ask him. Lol
Nobody knows more than the line
This can be a different problem: the apparently high edge that essentially acts as a trap (not a deliberate one, but a trap nevertheless). The odds are that way because someone knows something you don't.
An example via backtests, on my longest running tennis model. Anything below about 2% estimated edge produces no profit - I think of this as a noise floor, where multiple small and unknown factors chip away at an already marginal edge. At the top end of estimated edge, the return peaks and then starts to fall away, eventually levelling to zero.
Ideally there should be a tidy relationship between estimated edge and actual Roi produced (one good way of showing your model is calibrated properly), but you can never know everything so that top end dropoff is probably always going to occur - especially in individual sports where form/fitness of one athlete can have dramatic drop-offs.
Im an edge Kelly bettor and have been using the same system for about 10 years without a losing one.
If you want to win for sure in this business long term forget about "handicapping" and trying to "beat the books". because you likely wont. Instead use sharp books to beat square ones, thats what I do and it works, not every month but over the long haul you will profit, guaranteed.
Use lines from 5dimes and Pinnacle and assume those are closest to the actual win probability than any other opinion either from other books or so called "sharp handicappers". Very few guys will be able to consistently find inefficiencies in the lines those books put out because they are just so sharp and have way more information than you do. Dont try and beat the experts, instead join them. Once you realize that you are already on your way to making money.
if you are worth hundreds of millions, and give me 52% on a coin flip for my net worth ($628.43) should I take the bet????
do you actually think you can be so precise in your guestimate
don't even have to know what you're doing to make 6-8% in the market playing blue chippers, betting hundreds/thousands of games a year is a complete waste of time and money
European JJ is wise.
Try and for a moment to forget that number even exists. Just think about the game and the match up in your head and with your experience of watching baseball for how many years, ask yourself does this seem like a good game to put my money on. If you're betting on sports that means you enjoy and watch sports quite often and you should have "your own Sports book" right in your head upon who you think is the better team or who you think has the better matchup. You're going to see money lines that seem too good to be true you're going to see pointspreads that you think are way too high, you need to study the sport as you watch it and come up with your instinct of whether you think this is a good place to put your money.
Sometimes for major-league baseball I don't even look at the lines, all I do is look at the match up, the two teams playing, The starting pitchers and how the offense has been doing. In doing this I don't even need to see a pointspread I know when I see value and I think you will know as well when you see value in a game room that has a good chance of winning and paying you out ... am I making any sense whatsoever, sorry if I didn't explain it perfectly but I hope you get what I mean...
-Clund0026
Most of you are confused. You guys need to learn the difference between ROI and Yield. a 3% yield in a year with 2000 bets can result in over 100% ROI. Read the post about Yield, ROI and +ev at facebook.com/bettingresource You have to scroll down about 30 posts.
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