+EV

[Alfa1234]

That is terrible actually for high risk

go put 100k in diverse mutual funds with very little long term risk

Heck banks give 1.5% if you shop around

Unless I am missing something 3% is horrific

No, it's fantastic, unless that hedge fund invests your money 10x every month.

3% ROI means he makes 3% on EVERY SINGLE BET he makes. If he turns over his bankroll 3x every month it means he makes over 9% of his roll EVERY MONTH...your bank or hedge fund gives 1.5% on the total amount 1x/year.

[MaddyMax]

No, it's fantastic, unless that hedge fund invests your money 10x every month.

3% ROI means he makes 3% on EVERY SINGLE BET he makes. If he turns over his bankroll 3x every month it means he makes over 9% of his roll EVERY MONTH...your bank or hedge fund gives 1.5% on the total amount 1x/year.

Its called Yield, not ROI.

Most of you are confused. You guys need to learn the difference between ROI and Yield. a 3% yield in a year with 2000 bets can result in over 100% ROI. Read the post about Yield, ROI and +ev at facebook.com/bettingresource You have to scroll down about 30 posts.

[LT Profits]

In a nutshell:

Yield = Profit/Gross Total Investment
ROI = Profit/Starting Bankroll + Reloads over a fixed period of time

[SharpAngles]

If you're confident in your edge you should be ranging your bet sizes. Bet 1-2% if it's a few points and up to 5-10% if you feel like the oddsmakers are very wrong. More variance but if you actually hold any edge over the books you will win in the long run.

That said, very few people in this world have any kind of real edge and the percentage of SBR posters who do is very small.

[Broncos]

Nobody knows more than the line

Not always true. Sometimes the lines are jacked!

[grease lightnin]

Everyone always talks about +EV, edge percentage, etc.

But nobody talks about what really matters--what's in the model, or how you are determining what your edge is.

Like a few smart guys in this thread said--very few can accurately judge whether they have an edge.

Anyone who can accurately judge whether they have edge certainly doesn't need to ask how much of an edge they need to have in order to make a wager. That is by far the easy part.

OP, do you have a model, and how did you come up with it?

[tsty]

not having a minimum edge requirement is retarded

[ReturnOfTheMack]

Hey RB. Can you please PM. Have a couple questions to ask you.

TIA

Im an edge Kelly bettor and have been using the same system for about 10 years without a losing one.

If you want to win for sure in this business long term forget about "handicapping" and trying to "beat the books". because you likely wont. Instead use sharp books to beat square ones, thats what I do and it works, not every month but over the long haul you will profit, guaranteed.

Use lines from 5dimes and Pinnacle and assume those are closest to the actual win probability than any other opinion either from other books or so called "sharp handicappers". Very few guys will be able to consistently find inefficiencies in the lines those books put out because they are just so sharp and have way more information than you do. Dont try and beat the experts, instead join them. Once you realize that you are already on your way to making money.

[murph69]

EV is BS. The books are always going to make you pay extra for the better teams and give you a bargain on the weak teams.