15 Rules To Remember When Filling Out Your Bracket
1. The most important stat
The best teams win without their A game and blowout teams when they do have it. That’s why scoring margin is the most important stat in the ncaa tournament. The top 10 tournament teams in scoring margin are: BYU, Kansas, Duke, Murray State, Syracuse, Kentucky, St. Mary’s, Ohio State and Baylor.
2. Spreads, not seeds
“Pay more attention to pointspreads than seeding. When the 11 seed is a pick 'em against the 6 seed, the betting markets are telling you all you need to know.” – Covers Expert Teddy Sevransky.
3. Don’t be a hero
Upsets happen, but by relying heavily on the chalk, especially in the early rounds, you’ll at least give yourself a chance in the end.
“Don't fall in love with opening-round underdogs,” suggests Covers Expert Sean Murphy. “There will be a few upsets, but the majority of those teams won't end up going deep in the tournament. Trying to outsmart the rest of your office at tournament time will only give you a headache, and could ruin your bracket.”
You’re not going to be the guy to call the first ever 16-seed over a 1-seed. In fact, advancing each of the 1 through 4 seeds to the second round is a sound opening.
“Going back 24 years, No. 1 seed has ever lost in their opening game. The No. 2 seeds have lost only four times. That’s a total of 192 opening round games that have been played by No. 1 and No. 2 seeds with only four losses (98 percent success rate),” Covers Expert Lee Kostroski points out.
“The 3 seeds have lost a total of 15 times in the last 24 years. That’s an 84 percent success rate for the 3 teams. The 4 seeds have lost just 20 times the last during that same time period, or a 79 percent success rate. If you pick all of the 1-4 seeds to advance to the second round, you are looking at a probable 16-0 record with one or possibly two losses.
4. Respect coaches
“Teams in the NCAA tournament take on their coach's personalities. Tom Izzo's Michigan State Spartans shine in this event when facing an opponent that covered the spread by five or more points in its last game, going 19-2 SU and ATS.
“Also, Bill Self (Kansas) is 11-0 straight up and against the spread in this tourney when facing an opponent off an upset, underdog win in its last game.” –Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.
Under Izzo's guidance, MSU is 12-5 in tourney games since 2005 while Kansas is 11-2 in the Dance since 2007 with Self at the helm.
5. Second most important stat
Pay close attention to strength of schedule, specifically non-conference SOS.
The top 10 tournament teams in non-conference strength of schedule, according to the Pomeroy Ratings, are: Butler, California, Georgetown, Xavier West Virginia, Oakland, Temple, Kansas State and Old Dominion.
The top 10 in overall strength of the schedule: Georgetown, West Virginia, Kansas State, Duke, Texas A&M, Villanova, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, California and Clemson.
6. Six-seeds are vulnerable
A No. 11 seed will beat a No. 6 seed almost 33 percent of the time. Since 1985, No. 6 seeds have gone 69-31 straight up against No. 11 seeds. Last year No. 11 Dayton pulled the trick and other No. 11s, Utah and VCU, each lost by a point.
7. Ashley Judd is hot
So let’s hope Kentucky goes deep. The ultra-talented Wildcats will, by the way.
8. Vary your brackets, slightly
Again, we want to be chalk-heavy in every bracket.
But alternating some of the coin-flip, 8-9 or 10-7 games that you’re back and forth on in separate brackets will boost your chances of at least one bracket finishing in the money.
9. The bigger the pool...
The more chances you should take.
In a pool with hundreds of entries, you’re going to have to hit a pretty remarkable rate to win or finish the money. So, while still sticking with a chalk-heavy approach, take a shot at few more upsets in the big, national pools that are out there.
10. BYU is overrated
The Cougars have lost eight straight first-round games.
Each year, they stockpile stats against the dregs of the Mountain West, but struggle against the top teams from the mid-tier conference.
Cougar star Jimmer Fredette is very good and can keep BYU in a game. But as their MWC tournament loss to UNLV showed, the Cougars struggle against even a middle-of-the-pack team with superior athleticism.
11. Respect No. 1 seeds
“They earned those No. 1 seeds because they've been the best teams in college basketball. Never call for a No. 1 seed to get upset before the Sweet 16 at the earliest, and always include at least two No. 1 seeds in your Final Four.” – Covers Expert Teddy Sevransky.
12. Know the half-court game
“At tournament time, when the pace tends to slow and the games become more half-court oriented, we like to focus on teams that are comfortable playing that well, while many times lower our ratings on teams that live by running and pressing.” – Covers Expert David Malinsky.
13. Extra homework on 5-12 games
“Don’t take a No. 5 seed over a No. 12 seed without first giving it extra thought. In recent years it’s been the No. 12 seeds upsetting the No. 5 seeds with more frequency than expected.
“Still, make sure you do a little extra homework before you randomly assign one or two 12 seeds into the second round.” –Covers Expert Scott Rickenbach.
14. Trust your eyes
Even the most overwhelming statistical trends mean nothing, if you back a team that is athletically overmatched. If you’re lucky enough to have seen two teams in a particular matchup play, trust what you’ve seen more than what you read.
15. Rebounding rules
When the pace slows down, rebounding becomes even more important.
The top 10 rebounding teams in the tournament are: Michigan State, Old Dominion, Kentucky, Baylor, Kansas, Texas, San Diego State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, West Virginia and Duke.
Good luck, Bitches.
The best teams win without their A game and blowout teams when they do have it. That’s why scoring margin is the most important stat in the ncaa tournament. The top 10 tournament teams in scoring margin are: BYU, Kansas, Duke, Murray State, Syracuse, Kentucky, St. Mary’s, Ohio State and Baylor.
2. Spreads, not seeds
“Pay more attention to pointspreads than seeding. When the 11 seed is a pick 'em against the 6 seed, the betting markets are telling you all you need to know.” – Covers Expert Teddy Sevransky.
3. Don’t be a hero
Upsets happen, but by relying heavily on the chalk, especially in the early rounds, you’ll at least give yourself a chance in the end.
“Don't fall in love with opening-round underdogs,” suggests Covers Expert Sean Murphy. “There will be a few upsets, but the majority of those teams won't end up going deep in the tournament. Trying to outsmart the rest of your office at tournament time will only give you a headache, and could ruin your bracket.”
You’re not going to be the guy to call the first ever 16-seed over a 1-seed. In fact, advancing each of the 1 through 4 seeds to the second round is a sound opening.
“Going back 24 years, No. 1 seed has ever lost in their opening game. The No. 2 seeds have lost only four times. That’s a total of 192 opening round games that have been played by No. 1 and No. 2 seeds with only four losses (98 percent success rate),” Covers Expert Lee Kostroski points out.
“The 3 seeds have lost a total of 15 times in the last 24 years. That’s an 84 percent success rate for the 3 teams. The 4 seeds have lost just 20 times the last during that same time period, or a 79 percent success rate. If you pick all of the 1-4 seeds to advance to the second round, you are looking at a probable 16-0 record with one or possibly two losses.
4. Respect coaches
“Teams in the NCAA tournament take on their coach's personalities. Tom Izzo's Michigan State Spartans shine in this event when facing an opponent that covered the spread by five or more points in its last game, going 19-2 SU and ATS. “Also, Bill Self (Kansas) is 11-0 straight up and against the spread in this tourney when facing an opponent off an upset, underdog win in its last game.” –Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.
Under Izzo's guidance, MSU is 12-5 in tourney games since 2005 while Kansas is 11-2 in the Dance since 2007 with Self at the helm.
5. Second most important stat
Pay close attention to strength of schedule, specifically non-conference SOS.
The top 10 tournament teams in non-conference strength of schedule, according to the Pomeroy Ratings, are: Butler, California, Georgetown, Xavier West Virginia, Oakland, Temple, Kansas State and Old Dominion.
The top 10 in overall strength of the schedule: Georgetown, West Virginia, Kansas State, Duke, Texas A&M, Villanova, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, California and Clemson.
6. Six-seeds are vulnerable
A No. 11 seed will beat a No. 6 seed almost 33 percent of the time. Since 1985, No. 6 seeds have gone 69-31 straight up against No. 11 seeds. Last year No. 11 Dayton pulled the trick and other No. 11s, Utah and VCU, each lost by a point.
7. Ashley Judd is hot
So let’s hope Kentucky goes deep. The ultra-talented Wildcats will, by the way.8. Vary your brackets, slightly
Again, we want to be chalk-heavy in every bracket.
But alternating some of the coin-flip, 8-9 or 10-7 games that you’re back and forth on in separate brackets will boost your chances of at least one bracket finishing in the money.
9. The bigger the pool...
The more chances you should take.
In a pool with hundreds of entries, you’re going to have to hit a pretty remarkable rate to win or finish the money. So, while still sticking with a chalk-heavy approach, take a shot at few more upsets in the big, national pools that are out there.
10. BYU is overrated
The Cougars have lost eight straight first-round games.
Each year, they stockpile stats against the dregs of the Mountain West, but struggle against the top teams from the mid-tier conference.
Cougar star Jimmer Fredette is very good and can keep BYU in a game. But as their MWC tournament loss to UNLV showed, the Cougars struggle against even a middle-of-the-pack team with superior athleticism.
11. Respect No. 1 seeds
“They earned those No. 1 seeds because they've been the best teams in college basketball. Never call for a No. 1 seed to get upset before the Sweet 16 at the earliest, and always include at least two No. 1 seeds in your Final Four.” – Covers Expert Teddy Sevransky.
12. Know the half-court game
“At tournament time, when the pace tends to slow and the games become more half-court oriented, we like to focus on teams that are comfortable playing that well, while many times lower our ratings on teams that live by running and pressing.” – Covers Expert David Malinsky.
13. Extra homework on 5-12 games
“Don’t take a No. 5 seed over a No. 12 seed without first giving it extra thought. In recent years it’s been the No. 12 seeds upsetting the No. 5 seeds with more frequency than expected.
“Still, make sure you do a little extra homework before you randomly assign one or two 12 seeds into the second round.” –Covers Expert Scott Rickenbach.
14. Trust your eyes
Even the most overwhelming statistical trends mean nothing, if you back a team that is athletically overmatched. If you’re lucky enough to have seen two teams in a particular matchup play, trust what you’ve seen more than what you read.
15. Rebounding rules
When the pace slows down, rebounding becomes even more important.
The top 10 rebounding teams in the tournament are: Michigan State, Old Dominion, Kentucky, Baylor, Kansas, Texas, San Diego State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, West Virginia and Duke.
Good luck, Bitches.
