Question about KenPom for LT or anyone

[Chi_archie]

i've never bothered to get too deep into the ins and outs of how the projections are made.

but i've been wondering if they get adjusted in for certain situations.

for example

if team A is playing team B and projection is 65-63 with Team A winning. but 2 days before the game team A's star player slips during an adventurous sexual intercourse postion and breaks his clavicle. Will the Kenpom projection still be 65-63?

or does it take into account that data/statistics gathered during the first part of the season... let's use Pittsburgh as a real life example.....

two of Pitt's best players Dixon and Brown did not play until late Decemeber. does kenpom's figures make and adjustment for those games (for instance Pitt had a bad loss to Indiana without those players)

I guess I"m asking if the formula is weighted and complex enough to account for differences like this? since it seems to rate individual performances (even down to the % of possessions players are used for) with so much scrutiny?

[dwaechte]

It does not take those things into account. It goes purely off of previous scores and scores only.

[Chi_archie]

I hope you are right D, because that's how i've tried to use it as an advantageous tool in my favor. checking the active roster vs who may not be playing anymore.... or players that are vital to the team that did not play for large stretches of the year..... Gilchrist of S. florida is another example

[EaglesPhan36]

I personally don't use kenpom.com for anything more than making my own presumptions. The number of possessions and points per possessions info is the best stuff on there when capping totals. His projections are no better than any you'd find anywhere else as far as scores - he might have a solid formular, but it's pretty much as hit or miss as accuscore.

[LT Profits]

I think it is stats only, so key injuries are not factored. Just email him directly and ask, I think his email is at the site.