1. #1
    a4u2fear
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    Finding +EV in NFL wins

    Under Over Estimate
    TEAM Pts Odds Pts Odds Wins Ov Odds Un Odds High Low
    Arizona 373 245 428 165 9.5 -190 155 10.0888 8.1858
    Atlanta 331 170 384 165 7.5 115 -145 8.5664 6.7326
    Baltimore 339 155 394 175 8 -105 -125 8.9124 7.0094
    Buffalo 329 165 382 155 8 -115 -115 8.4972 6.6634
    Carolina 382 175 440 155 10.5 -115 -115 10.504 8.4972
    Chicago 323 155 376 155 7.5 105 -135 8.2896 6.4558
    Cincinnati 364 170 419 165 9.5 -130 100 9.7774 7.8744
    Cleveland 280 130 330 155 4.5 -140 110 6.698 4.968
    Dallas 353 235 409 155 9 105 -135 9.4314 7.4938
    Denver 353 165 410 150 9.5 140 -170 9.466 7.4938
    Detroit 330 160 383 160 7 -125 -105 8.5318 6.698
    Green Bay 379 240 437 165 10.5 -160 130 10.4002 8.3934
    Houston 340 175 394 155 8.5 -135 105 8.9124 7.044
    Indianapolis 350 230 404 165 9.5 140 -175 9.2584 7.39
    Jacksonville 335 245 388 155 7.5 -140 110 8.7048 6.871
    Kansas City 355 160 411 160 9.5 -130 100 9.5006 7.563
    Los Angeles 320 135 373 150 7.5 140 -175 8.1858 6.352
    Miami 320 160 373 160 7 -130 100 8.1858 6.352
    Minnesota 355 250 410 150 9.5 -150 120 9.466 7.563
    New Orleans 330 260 383 155 7 -105 -125 8.5318 6.698
    NY Giants 355 220 411 150 8 -115 -115 9.5006 7.563
    NY Jets 330 145 383 160 7.5 -120 -110 8.5318 6.698
    Oakland 355 160 388 160 8.5 -130 100 8.7048 7.563
    Philadelphia 330 160 383 150 7 135 -165 8.5318 6.698
    San Diego 323 190 376 145 7 -125 -105 8.2896 6.4558
    San Francisco 280 140 330 165 5.5 -110 -120 6.698 4.968
    Seattle 385 190 443 150 10.5 -140 110 10.6078 8.601
    Tampa Bay 323 160 376 160 7 -110 -120 8.2896 6.4558
    Tennessee 310 140 363 160 5.5 -160 130 7.8398 6.006
    Washington 330 180 383 155 7.5 100 -130 8.5318 6.698

  2. #2
    a4u2fear
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    Above is a table I made in Excel. My website has odds for number of points scored by each team (minus NE and PIT), and odds for wins.

    The under and over columns are the point totals and their odds for going above or below. My site also has inclusive odds for the ranges, but those were left off here.

    The wins columns are self explanatory.

    The estimate columns were calculated using the high and low point totals for each team, and a regression formula between wins and points scored for the last three season.

  3. #3
    a4u2fear
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    Anytime the win total for a team fell almost in the middle of my high and low ranges, I did not consider the bet. Any team not mentioned below is in that realm, along with my favorite team, the Buffalo Bills, who I do not bet.

  4. #4
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    Team Reasoning Bet
    Arizona over 10.1 +165, under 10.1 ~ -180 UNDER
    Carolina over 10.5 +155, under 10.5 ~ -170 UNDER
    Cincinnati over 9.8 +165, under 9.8 ~ -180 UNDER
    Cleveland under 4.97 +130, over 4.97 ~ -145 PASS
    Dallas over 9.4 +155, under 9.4 ~ -170 UNDER
    Denver over 9.5 +150, under 9.5 ~ -165 PASS
    Detroit under 6.7 +160, over 6.7 ~ -175 OVER
    Green Bay over 10.4 +165, under 10.4 ~ -180 UNDER
    Houston over 8.9 +155, under 8.9 ~ -170 UNDER
    Indianapolis over 9.3 +165, under 9.3 ~ -180 PASS
    Kansas City over 9.5 +160, under 9.5 ~ -175 UNDER
    Minnesota over 9.5 +150, under 9.5 ~ -165 UNDER
    NY Giants under 7.6 +220, over 7.6 ~ -240 OVER
    Oakland Over 8.7 +160, under 8.7 ~ -175 UNDER
    Philadelphia Under 6.7 +160, over 6.7 ~ -175 OVER
    San Diego Under 6.5 +190, over 6.5 ~ -210 OVER
    San Francisco Under 4.97 +140, over 4.97 ~ -155 PASS
    Seattle Over 10.6 +150, under 10.6 ~ -165 UNDER
    Tampa Bay Under 6.5 +160, over 6.5 ~ -175 OVER
    Tennessee Under 6 +140, over 6 ~ -155 OVER

  5. #5
    a4u2fear
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    You could use Poisson Calculations to help predict the numbers, but there will be a significant amount of error introduced because the Poisson model does not fit well in estimating wins in a year.

    Since I have done most of the homework here - it's best for you to now do the rest: read offseason reports on who had a good or bad offseason, check out strength of schedule, current injuries, new schemes, etc.

  6. #6
    a4u2fear
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    I suggest everyone take a quick read and evaluate.

    Using the points estimated per team from a prop bet, I was able to correctly estimate team wins at a 10-4-1 clip, at +6.71 units. That includes the under on some big teams (usually over), and some overs on some teams the public was down on (TB, Det, Ten, NYG)

  7. #7
    a4u2fear
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    that is estimate team wins over the entire regular season.

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