1. 03-13-16 01:59 PM #1
    dishwasher
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    college football system back tested shows 72% win rate

    I tested a college football system from last year and it went 75-29 from week 1 thru the bowl season. that's 72% according to my math. I will post ALL the plays next season and we will see if the win rate can continue. also, im currently testing an NFL system and thru the first 8 weeks of last season it is 36-14-2. that's around 68-69%. when I finish the test I will give the final numbers for the entire season. wouldn't it be great if both of these systems were able to repeat that performance next season? we will see once football rolls around again. STAY TUNED!!!!! lol
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  2. 03-13-16 02:58 PM #2
    Foxx
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    I wouldn't quit your dishwashing job yet. Good luck though.
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  3. 03-13-16 03:04 PM #3
    dishwasher
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    Quote Originally Posted by Foxx View Post
    I wouldn't quit your dishwashing job yet. Good luck though.
    I know the haters will be praying that it blows up in my face.
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  4. 03-13-16 03:27 PM #4
    DrunkHorseplayer
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    I'll pull for you but any "system" that hits at 70% is most surely an aberration. Good luck; you'll need it.
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  5. 03-13-16 04:27 PM #5
    dishwasher
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrunkHorseplayer View Post
    I'll pull for you but any "system" that hits at 70% is most surely an aberration. Good luck; you'll need it.
    even for a FULL season????
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  6. 03-13-16 06:14 PM #6
    bosigga
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    How did it do for the seasons before last?
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  7. 03-13-16 06:17 PM #7
    Waterstpub87
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    Yes, even for a full season. 100 plays is nothing close to a decent sample size. You will not hit 70% over any reasonable amount of games. 55% would be absolutely killing it, and that would be extremely difficult to achieve.
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  8. 03-13-16 06:17 PM #8
    Slipknot26
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    Minimum 3 years to 5 years back tested , it must be shown as a trend not a 1 hit year wonder
    Just being honest
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  9. 03-13-16 07:39 PM #9
    dishwasher
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slipknot26 View Post
    Minimum 3 years to 5 years back tested , it must be shown as a trend not a 1 hit year wonder
    Just being honest
    ok, but I will post the plays when football season cranks back up. hopefully it will continue to perform at a high rate and we can all make some cash.
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  10. 03-13-16 10:54 PM #10
    dishwasher
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    just finished the NFL back test. it performed even better that the college back test going 86-22-4. had 1 losing week and that was week 1 where it went 4-5. at one point it won 19 in a row. the college system won at 72% and the NFL won at 76% for the season. is it a fluke??? we will damn sure see this fall.
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  11. 03-14-16 12:19 AM #11
    Covy
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    I'm curious to see it dish

    how about going back for 3 years and make sure it is legit?
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  12. 03-14-16 12:20 AM #12
    tony_come
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    What's the play?
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  13. 03-14-16 01:35 AM #13
    dishwasher
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    Quote Originally Posted by tony_come View Post
    What's the play?
    bro, its a football system. we gotta wait till the fall for the season to start.
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  14. 03-14-16 01:38 AM #14
    dishwasher
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    Quote Originally Posted by Covy View Post
    I'm curious to see it dish

    how about going back for 3 years and make sure it is legit?
    I will try to get to it cuz im curious to see how it performs long term.
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  15. 03-14-16 02:06 AM #15
    tony_come
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    Quote Originally Posted by dishwasher View Post
    bro, its a football system. we gotta wait till the fall for the season to start.
    Sorry bro. I will wait
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  16. 03-14-16 02:47 AM #16
    Plaza23
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    You need a sample of 1,000 games IMO to be confident of anything. Keep back testing and see what you can find out.
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  17. 03-14-16 03:28 AM #17
    dishwasher
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    Quote Originally Posted by Plaza23 View Post
    You need a sample of 1,000 games IMO to be confident of anything. Keep back testing and see what you can find out.
    can you tell me where I can find the lines and scores for NFL and college that date back 5 years? thanks.
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  18. 03-14-16 03:29 AM #18
    dishwasher
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    Quote Originally Posted by tony_come View Post
    Sorry bro. I will wait
    don't sweat it bro, its cool.
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  19. 03-14-16 03:35 AM #19
    tony_come
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    Quote Originally Posted by dishwasher View Post
    don't sweat it bro, its cool.
    DS word bro! Popping 9 miles in the country forever
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  20. 03-14-16 09:55 AM #20
    Waterstpub87
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    Quote Originally Posted by dishwasher View Post
    can you tell me where I can find the lines and scores for NFL and college that date back 5 years? thanks.
    www.sbrodds.com
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  21. 03-14-16 10:02 AM #21
    ManosdePiedra
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    Looking forward to 3 additional years back testing. GL to you
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  22. 03-14-16 12:18 PM #22
    INVEGA MAN
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    Will I remember this in 6 months??
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  23. 03-14-16 07:49 PM #23
    gojetsgomoxies
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    as a quick scan, i'm thinking it's about 8 games a week for this last season... it's a good number of games per week for a system.

    and if it's a reasonable system, i'd say that win rate is highly significant.......

    but if it's a highly manipulated type system the win rate is meaningless............................. some years home favourites in the SEC or ACC of more than 15 points are great, some years they aren't so good. it jumps around alot.

    if you gave someone on here some general specs for the system (PM of course, and confidential) then you'd have much better idea.

    i do alot of back-testing and i find things that work wonderfully over the long term but within that time you get back-to-back 38% win rate seasons in the middle of the system's run which really gives me wonder to pause.
    Last edited by gojetsgomoxies; 03-14-16 at 07:52 PM.
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  24. 03-14-16 07:54 PM #24
    gojetsgomoxies
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    Quote Originally Posted by dishwasher View Post
    can you tell me where I can find the lines and scores for NFL and college that date back 5 years? thanks.
    killersports.com or the sports database (i think that's what it's called) and you can run basic queries all day long.........
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  25. 03-14-16 07:54 PM #25
    daneblazer
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    It's picking the team closest to the Z
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  26. 05-27-16 07:41 PM #26
    thegoal60
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    Any updates on the back testing? I would love to hear about them if so. Dishwasher if there is something I can help with send me a DM and I will try and help.
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  27. 06-04-16 10:55 PM #27
    simon2012
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    do people really think systems work? the game has evolved so much that even back testing is pointless
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  28. 06-04-16 11:13 PM #28
    vividjohn45
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    Quote Originally Posted by tony_come View Post
    What's the play?
    Dodgers ml. Kershaw -500
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  29. 06-05-16 12:37 AM #29
    chico2663
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    scores and odds.com if you need someone to do some research for you just let me know.
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  30. 06-05-16 06:23 AM #30
    a4u2fear
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    Quote Originally Posted by slipknot26 View Post
    minimum 3 years to 5 years back tested , it must be shown as a trend not a 1 hit year wonder
    just being honest
    yuuuuuup
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  31. 06-05-16 09:27 AM #31
    thegoal60
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    I do think systems work. I think that people naturally follow trends in everything they do whether its day to day life or coming out strong after getting kicked in the teeth two games in a row. So yes I do think systems work. I look at odds makers just like normal people. They have a natural thought about a team that is fitting a situation from the past that they set lines to. We are all here to beat the number and I don't mean this BS of "I was on the right side of the number and lost" I mean when the game ends our tickets are wrote in black ink and not red. I'M ON BOARD 100% if the system is legit. Wish dishwater would update us on what he has found.
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  32. 06-29-16 03:28 PM #32
    CrimsonTiger
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    Any updates on backtesting?
    What is the system, maybe somebody else will do the back test???
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  33. 06-29-16 03:41 PM #33
    VeggieDog
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    Quote Originally Posted by a4u2fear View Post
    yuuuuuup
    LOL I love that guy.
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  34. 06-29-16 03:43 PM #34
    TheMoneyShot
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    I usually just simulate my games for 2016 using Tecmo Bowl in 1989. Works like a gem.
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  35. 06-29-16 03:52 PM #35
    iifold
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    Teams and Sportsbooks make adjustments...

    You're wasting your time...

    Look ahead, not behind...

    Good luck!
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