College Baskets -Tracking Thread : Start date Dec 03, 2025

[Aunty808]

I had some time today and decided to find a System for College Ball.

I started by going through the whole list of games at covers. I found all the games that had a 80%-100% Team Expert pick percentage. There must be a minimum of 10 contestants to qualify. If you visit the list right after it comes out, there's alot of 100% picks, but, it's usually only 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 4-0.......anything under 10 does not count as a play.

1- Team with an 80% or higher is a FADE.

2- Massey Ratings - Ranking Composites
Usually the higher ranked team earns a vote as a play, but not always. I also eyeball the change in the composite ranking since the last edition.
Moving up (+) is better than moving down (-).

3- Estimate of point differential per 100 possessions (adjusted for strenght of opposition).
Higher ranking team scores a vote as a play.

Because there's so many games , I won't be able to do this on a daily basis. I will only be doing this on my days off, Sunday, Wednesday and Friday.


Today's Plays
Oral Roberts +7' ........87%........Play Weber St-7'........Final 92-66 ...WW
Radford-3'...................85%........Play So Miss +3'......... Final 82-75 ...WW
American-4'.............. 81%.........Play Drexel+4'..............Final 73-75 ....LW
Seton Hall-18.............80%........Play Cen CT+18............Final 61-77 ....LW
USC Upstate-1'.........80%........Play Co Car+1'...............Final 78-85 (OT)......LL
***Co Car was pretty much leading the whole game, then lost it in OT.

Pacific-6......................81%.........Play Pacific -6.............Final 80-65.....WW
***Pacific had the better composite ranking and change in ranking(139/+71) to AF (304/-15).
Pacific also had the better rank/point differential (113/+5.96) to AF (255/-14.53).
Team Experts got one right!!

I used the ORoberts/Weber St game as my survivor pick for today.
Winner!

Be back Friday!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

GL, Aunty. Overtime can be brutal for the Bask dogs.

[Aunty808]

GL, Aunty. Overtime can be brutal for the Bask dogs.

I guess they just run out of gas.......lol.
Football is almost over so I need to look at other sports to find my survivor pick for the contest. Maybe I'll get lucky with college ball!

[Aunty808]

I had some time (was bored) so I took a look at the games for today. There's no plays today, but, I looked over yesterday numbers for the O/U and these are the results.

Public and Team Experts matches in picking the O/U

OVERS
7 won and 7 lost

UNDERS
5 won and 13 lost
Most of the losses were in the 51% to 60%'s range.

Let's see how today's O/U play out. (FADE)
Utah St/So Fla ........UN 162' ......(53%/53%)
CSU Bakerfield/CSU Northridge.......UN 155'....(59%/55%)
UC Riverside/UC Irvine.....UN 139'.....(58%/56%)
CA Poly SLO/ CSU Fullerton....UN178....(61%/53%)

The Plays
Utah St/So Fla OVER162'
CSU Bakerfield/CSU Northridge OVER 155'
UC Riverside/UC Irvine OVER 139'
CA Poly SLO/ CSU Fullerton OVER 178

***Yesterday was the first time using this method so I really don't know what to expect. I'll just use this thread to track the plays.

[Aunty808]

Saturday's Plays

SIUE-7..............81%......Play WMich+7
F Wayne-1......80%.....Play No Kentucky+1
Temple-2'.......87%.....Play St Joe's+2'
Col St-2'.......... 81%.....Play Col+2'
So Utah+12.....82%.....Play Oreg St-12'
NMex+2'..........82%......Play Santa Clara-2'

Record YTD (80%-100% Plays)
S/U 3-3
ATS 5-1

[Aunty808]

Adding
USC-5...........85%.........Play Wash+5
Fla St+15'......83%.........Play Houston-15'

[Headsterx]

Nothing on the two big matchups of ranked undefeated teams?

Duke v Michigan State
Iowa State v Purdue

[Aunty808]

Mich St-1.......60%
Pudrue-6'......74%

Based on the method I use, I took Iowa St and Duke in the contest. Breakdown in next post.

[Aunty808]

These games did not qualify as a play, but, I'm capping them using the below method.
The teams with the better numbers are the teams that usually end up as a play, but not always.

1- Pace: The number of possessions a team uses per game. It measures the speed at which a team plays, with a higher number indicating a faster pace.

2- RtgDiff (Rating Differential): The difference between a team's offensive and defensive ratings. A positive value indicates a higher offensive efficiency relative to defensive efficiency.

3- Net Rating- Estimate of point differential per 100 possessions (adjusted for strenght of opposition).

4- Massey Ratings - Ranking Composites
Usually the higher ranked team earns a vote as a play, but not always. I also eyeball the change in the composite ranking since the last edition.
Moving up (+) is better than moving down (-).
============================

Iowa St ..............(1)..74.9.....(2)...41.1.. ..(3)...33.99.....(4)...6/+5
Purdue-6'..........(1)..68.9...(2)...31.1...... (3)...38.59....(4)...3/-1 (63%/74%)

Duke..................(1)...71.3......(2 )...43.0...(3)...40.01.....(4)...2/-1
Mich St-3........(1)...68.6)...(2)...27.0)...(3) ...34.28...(4)...7/+9 (53%/60%)
==============

I'm watching the games and Iowa St is leading and Duke is losing......still lots of game left!

[Aunty808]

Yesterday I did the Top 25 Matches and got really good results. Some games were picked because of the obvious matchup (using the numbers) and other I kinda eyeballed the matchup and went against the numbers.
Results
(1) Purdue-6' vs (10) Iowa St
Purdue was the play, but eyeball test said Iowa St+6'.......Iowa St 81-58 WW

(4) Duke+1 at (7) Mich St
Duke was the play...........Duke 66-60 WW

(6) Louis-4' at (22) Indiana
Louis was the play, but eyeball test said Indiana+4'........Louis 87-79 WW
My eyeball test lost.

Rutgers at (Mich-25')
Michigan was the play..........Michigan-25' 101-60 WW

Fresno St at (25) Arkansas=20
Arkansas was the play .........Arkansas-20 82-67 WW

Wash at (24) USC-5
USc was the play, but with a pick percentage of 85% at covers, I took Wash+5
Wash+5...............84-76 WW

Fla St at (98) Houston-15'
Houston was the play................Houston-15' 82-67 WL ( i/2 point loss!)

(14) Ill+1' at (13)Tenn
Illinois was the play......................Illinois 75-62 WW

Miss at (23)St John's -13'
St John's was the play...............St John's 63-58 WL

(20)Auburn at (2) Arizona-8'
Arizona was the play, but eyeball test said take Auburn.................Arizona-8' 97-68 WW
My eyeball test failed miserably. I watched the game off and on and it seemed like Auburn just couldn't get their act together. They couldn't make those baskets. Arizona gave them alot of chances cause I kept hearing "foul on Arizona" so many times, but they couldn't/didn't take advantage of it. Oh well......
===========

I wanted to watch the Hawaii game so I decided at the last minute to run the numbers on that game.

Team/Pace/Rtg/NRtg/Massey Rank/Change

CSU Full...........(1) 82.6.....(2) -0.3.....(3) -22.50......(4) 257/+57
Hawaii -15......(1) 756......(2) 17.9.....(3) -5.58.........(4) 157/+2

Hawaii would have been a lean because the numbers were split. I went with CSU Full because I didn't think a team with a (3) -5.58 should be giving 15 points, CSU Full had the better Pace and moved up +57 places from previous ranking.
Hawaii -15 .........69-59............WL

Next post will be todays Top 25 games.

[Aunty808]

Dec 7 Sunday
Top 25 Plays

Team/Pace/Rtg/NRtg/Massey Rank/Change (covers contest percentages)

Mizzo+7 at (21) Kansas Play Mizzo+7 FINAL: Mizzo 60-80 LL
Missouri..........(1) 74.3......(2) 28.3.....(3) 27.53....(4)..37/-1
Kansas-7.......(1) 68.8.....(2) 16.0.....(3) 29.01.....(4)..16/+7 (68%/67%)

UTSA at (12) Alabama-33' **Play Alabama-33' (Lean) FINAL: Alabama 97-55 WW
UTSA ...............(1) 73.9......(2) 8.7....(3) -3.33....(4) -31/270
Ala -33'..........(1) 78.2......(2) 17.2...(3) 35.10.....(4) -5/12 (56%/64%)
Alabama played No Dakota+35', ranked 300 and won by 29......91-62
Alabama played UNLV+14', ranked 99 and won by 39........115-76.
Alabama played Maryland+15', ranked 60 and won by 33.....105-72.
**UTSA is ranked at 270. See No Dakota's game/rank. Alabama won but did not cover.

LSU at (19) Texas Tech-6 Play LSU+6 FINAL: LSU 58-82 LL
LSU..................(1) 74.4....(2) 31.8....(3) 13.64....(4) 31/+14
TTech-6.......(1) 72.1......(2) 14.2....(3) 33.78....(4) 24/XX (57%/57%)

GTown at (16) North Carolina-11' Play NCar-11' FINAL: N Carolina 81-61 WW
GTown...............(1) 71.4......(2) 10.5.......(3) 11.45......(4) 90/-24
NCar-11'............(1) 72.2......(2) 23.9......(3) 24.44,,,,(4) 23/-5

North Florida at (11) Gonzaga-46' Play Gonzaga-46' FINAL: Gonzaga 109-58 WW
North Fla............(1) 76.7......(2) -0.2......(3) -11.50.....(4) 331/-4
Gonzaga-46'...(10 75.6.....(2) 34.5......(3) 33.12.......(4) 5/-1
Gonzaga played Tex Sou+27', ranked 291 and won by 55..........98-43.
Gonzaga played So Utah+35', ranked 321 and won by 72.....122-50.
Gonzaga played Maryland+14' , ranked 60 and won by 39.....100-61

Only second day of tracking so use caution and good luck!
=============
EDIT: Updated scores and W/L
Recap Sunday Dec 7
S/U 3-2
ATS 3-2

[Aunty808]

Tuesday Dec 9
Top 25

Villanova at (3) Michigan-15' / 150' Play Mich-15' FINAL: 89-61 WW
Eyeball test thinks Villanova can stay within the number. Lose.
Michigan ranked #1 vs Villanova #39. Michigan NRtg 52'86, Villanova 22.16.

Clemson at (9) BYU-8 / 150' Play BYU-8 FINAL: 67-64 WL
Eyeball test thinks Clemson can stay within the number. Win
Tracking O/U 80%-100% picks OVER (54%/89% - only 8-1 ) Lose
Game stayed UNDER 150' (131)

No Car Central at (18) Kentucky-43' / 147' Play Kentucky-43' FINAL: 103-67 WL
Kentucky has covered all the big numbers except for week 1.
(XX) Massey Rankings
-31'........won by 26 Nicholls St (199-7)
-32'.......won by 48 Valparaiso (251/3)
-35'.......won by 46 Ea Illinois (305/10)
-35'......won by 42 Loyola (MD) (317//20)
-37'......won by 53 Tenn Tech (306/25)
-43.......won by 36 NoCar Central (349/40)

(14) Illinois at Ohio St 157' Play Illinois-3 FINAL: 88-80 WW
Eyeball test thinks Ohio St can stay within the number. Lose
Tracking O/U 80%-100% picks UNDER (53%/91% - 10-1) Lose
Game flew OVER 157' (168)

Penn St at (22) Indiana-15' / 153' Play Indiana-15' FINAL: 113-72 WW
Eyeball test thinks Penn St can stay within the number. Lose

(15)Florida at (5) UConn-4' / 146 Play UConn-4' FINAL: 77-73 WL (1/2 point loss)
Eyeball test thinks Florida can stay within the number. Win
Tracking O/U 80%-100% picks UNDER (47%/86% - on;y 6-1) Lose
Game flew OVER 146 (150)

(24) USC-16' at San Diego 161' Play USC-16' FINAL: 94-81 WL
Team Experts are picking USC 83%. USC-16' qualifies as a FADE. Win
When USC played Wash, the pick percentage on USC was 85%. Faded USC and Wash won S/U.
The difference between Wash and San Diego is Wash's numbers were all positive and the ranking was
Wash 69 -USC 21. San Diego is ranked at 298 to USC 28. San Diego also has negative numbers.
**First road game for USC as a double-digit favorite.


EDIT: Updated scores and W/L
Recap Tuesday Dec 9
S/U 7-0
ATS 3-4
Eyeball Test ATS 2-3

**Note: O/U pick percentages of 80%-100% will now be a FADE .
O/U FADES 3-0

**Note: The eyeball test is picking the opponent who has all positive numbers in each catagory. Eyeball needs to tweak a little and pass on opponents with bigger differences in each catagory. Example, opponent ranked 5 vs 1 has a better chance to stay within the number than an opponent ranked 15 vs 1.
=================

Hope to keep tracking baskets so I can do a decent March Madness Bracket this year!

**Note to Self: When this method picks the DOG, FADE the DOG. When a lower ranked team gives points to a higher ranked team, FADE the team giving the points.

[Aunty808]

Top 25 (AP Poll) - Wed Dec 10

Minnesota at (6) Purdue -20 /142' Play Purdue-20 FINAL 85-57 WW

Jax St at (7) Houston -40' /135' Play Houston-40' FINAL 80-38 WW
(XX) Massey Rankings
-36'..........won by 18 (Lehigh 303/1)
-25'..........won by 17 (Townson 126/1
-30'..........won by 33 (Oakland 184/2)
-40'..........won by 46 (Rider 322/2)
-40..........won by 42 (Jax St 238/12)

Wisconsin at (23) Nebraska-1' Play Nebraska-1' FINAL 90-60 WW


EDIT: Updated scores and W/L
Recap Wednesday Dec 10
S/U 3-0
ATS 3-0

[Aunty808]

Top 25 (AP Poll) Thurs Dec 11

Iowa at Iowa St-12' / 143 Play Iowa-12' FINAL: 66-62 WL

S/U 1-0
ATS 0-1

NOTE: I've noticed that this method is good at picking S/U winners, 14-2 since I started tracking it here. Maybe a ML parlay, just for fun, will win a couple of bucks!

[Aunty808]

Top 25 (AP Poll) Friday Dec 12

Texas at (5) UConn-13' / 145' Play UConn-13'

[Aunty808]

Top 25 (AP Poll) Saturday Dec 13
Tweaked a little so no eyeball test. I grouped them in two catagories. 4-0 is pretty much the best plays. On the other hand is the 1-3 group. Those games fall in the tweaked game results.

4-0 Group
(9) Mich St-12' at Penn St / 144'......... (23/12.9)
Play Mich St-12' FINAL 76-72 WL

Iona at (22) St John's-27 / 162'.......(20.2/-0.88)
Play St John's-27 FINAL 91-64 WP

Marquette at (6) Purdue-18' / 153' .....(26.8/6.2)
Play Purdue-18' FINAL 79-59 WW

USC Upstate at (14) No Car-28' / 147'......(24/12.9)
Play No Car-28' FINAL 80-62 WL

N Orleans at (7) Houston-32' / 140'....(26.8/-5.7)
Play Houston-32' FINAL 99-57 WW

Memphis at (11) Louisville-16 / 161'.........(35.6/1.7)
Play Louisville-16 FINAL 99-73 WW

Central Ark at (15) Vandy-34' / 156'.......(31.9/-1.6)
Play Vandy-34' FINAL 83-72 WL

(2) Michigan-20 at Maryland / 153' .......(36.6/-2.80)
Play Michigan-20 FINAL 101-83 WL

UC Riverside at (10) BYU-32' / 153'...........(21.9/1.5)
Play BYU-32' FINAL 100-53 WW

(1) Arizona-1' at (!2) Alabama / 178 ........(31.3/21.0)
Play Arizona-1' FINAL 96-75 WW

(25) UCLA at (8) Gonzaga-13' / 148.........(37.7/1.5)
Play Gonzaga-13' FINAL 82-72 WL

S/U 11-0
ATS 5-5-1
=================


1-3 Group
(17) Arkansas+1' at (16) Texas Tech / 153'.......(23.3/16.4)
Play Arkansas+1' FINAL 93-86 WW

Geo Wash+15' at (18) Florida / 167' ............(15.9/12.7)
Play Geo Wash+15' FINAL 70-80 LW

(23) Nebraska+10 at (13) Illinois / 159'...........(25.7/25.1)
Play Nebraska+10 FINAL 83-80 WW

Chattanooga+22' at (21) Auburn / 151' ..........(15.4/13.8)
Play Chatt+22' FINAL 78-92 LW

(19) Kansas at NC St-2' / 151' ..........(21.7/17.3)
Play NC St-2' FINAL 76-77 LL

S/U 2-3
ATS 4-1
M/L 2-2
==========


Edit: Update scores/WL record

[trytrytry]

like this one today as well 3 units
North Car-28

33 point win loading...

[Headsterx]

Play Mich St-12'

Don’t like the play but definitely liking Michigan-20 in another blowout. Good luck!

[Aunty808]

Play Mich St-12'

Don’t like the play but definitely liking Michigan-20 in another blowout. Good luck!

When I first saw the numbers, I thought Michigan in a blowout. But when I went to enter the contest, why did Michigan go from a -20 to -18' with the pick percentages on Michigan 54%/67%. Shouldn't I be giving Maryland more points instead of less? When I see the line moving in the opposite way, it leaves me scratching my head.........
good luck!

[Aunty808]

like this one today as well 3 units
North Car-28

33 point win loading...

good luck! Hoping for lots of winners today!!

[Aunty808]

Top 25 (AP Poll) Sunday Dec 14

E Illinois at (4) Iowa St -41' / 144'
Play Iowa St-41'
-37'.............won by 38 (Fair Dickinson 332/16)
-33'.............won by 40 (Grambling St 318/16)
-39'............won by 39 (Stonehill 340/9)
-42'............won by 64 (Alcorn St 332/6)

[Aunty808]

Top 25 (AP Poll) Sunday Dec 14

E Illinois at (4) Iowa St -41' / 144'
Play Iowa St-41' FINAL 78-53 WL
-37'.............won by 38 (Fair Dickinson 332/16)
-33'.............won by 40 (Grambling St 318/16)
-39'............won by 39 (Stonehill 340/9)
-42'............won by 64 (Alcorn St 332/6)

If you like winning $$$ and bet college baskets, check out the Barking Dogs/Free Throws/Bonus Shots O/U thread in the NCAA Basketball forum. I found a method that's been kicking out winners like you wouldn't believe.

I use the picks for my basketball contest, but can't profit real $$$$ as I don't gamble (living in Hawaii). I hope some of you can use these plays and make some $$$$. There's alot of DOG winners, and I mean ML Dog winners.

good luck!!

[Aunty808]

I won't be tracking plays here as of Monday Dec15.
All NCAA Basketball plays will be in the Barking Dogs/Free Throws/Bonus Shots O/U thread in the NCAA Basketball forum.

RIP......