The "Big Beautiful Bill" will not be good for sports gambling...

[DwightShrute]

They are reported by the taxpayer. Just like onshore betting income.

I wonder what percentage do. My guess is less than 1%.

[TommieGunshot]

They are reported by the taxpayer. Just like onshore betting income.

I wonder what percentage do. My guess is less than 1%.

If your guess is right, then this new tax law is meaningless to more than 99% of us.

[DwightShrute]

If your guess is right, then this new tax law is meaningless to more than 99% of us.

I guess we will have to see what happens. I am not convinced that this law will ever actually go into effect. I could be wrong of course but even though it seems they did relatively the same thing back in 2006, its a different world today. Seems as if everyone has a sports book now. ESPN has one as we all are aware. I don't think you can put the genie back in the bottle at this point.

We will see soon enough.

[Bluehorseshoe]

https://x.com/repdinatitus/status/1941296944632246452

[pavyracer]

https://x.com/repdinatitus/status/1941296944632246452

This is good news for gamblers.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

If your guess is right, then this new tax law is meaningless to more than 99% of us.

Per Galfond's video:
1) I agree that MOST don't report on gambling. First off, how many guys win? In a given year, some guy might clear < $2000, so the IRS isn't going to chase that down.
2) If a guy does win a name CONTEST, he'll surely have to report that.
3) As Galfond says, he's really talking about professional gamblers. If that's what you do for a living, there's a paper-trail that leads to your bank acct.

[ProSportsEdge]

Thx for the note. Insane. Any semi-serious gambler knows how tight the margins are in gaming:
*Sports: You want to seek out 16-cent juice. Anything > 20-cents is outrageous.
*Poker: Spokesman Daniel Negreanu has talked about how tough it is to carve out a consistent profit. Rake/fees need to be small. Can't keep ripping $$ off the table.

Will see how this plays out. If the fees/taxes are too much, reasonable minds will go elsewhere.

Exactly, Chucky. When juice and fees get too high, it just kills the edge. Bettors aren’t dumb—we’ll go where the value is.

[Ian]

Salud, Ian. Didn't know you were a poker-grinder.

I normally spend one week in Vegas every year playing the summer tournaments. I would cross paths with the grinders that you referenced. Guys who carve out a small edge and accumulate over the tournament series.

If you're ever inclined, would love to hear your observations in the Poker forum. If poker is a study of human-behavior, then I feel like I have some very specific observations. A human is a creature of habit, and that doesn't change.

I have a few poker-buddies, I send them hand-reviews. I used to post some similar hand-reviews here on SBR. If I'm unsure about a hand, I run it thru SOLVER.

A few starters that are hard to disagree with:
1) The game is now VO (Value Only). If you think your Opponent is playing a hand creatively, you're giving him too much credit. He's playing his hand, don't think differently until proven otherwise.
2) If it looks like your Opponent discovered plutonium...it's because he did. I call this the Exploding Bet Ratio. If Opponent thought his hand was worth a $30 limp pre-flop...but is now Raising it to $600 on Turn, it's because he now holds a monster (Premium hand: 2Pair+).
3) I rate my game as pretty good on most streets. I feel like I generate a good amount of Fold Equity by opening Speculative hands (in addition to Premium hands). Big Blind defense is now terrible, Opponents give up the BB for a song. Flip-side is that I hate calling down river bets, b/c that's (almost) always Value.

I just saw your Vegas thread in the poker forum... sounds like a great time. Congrats on the cash.

I've only messed around with tournaments. The swings and juice are too high for my taste. Cash games bring a more consistent income, but with increasing rakes and some other factors the money just isn't what it used to be. Not being able to deduct all losses will be the nail in the coffin for a lot of grinders.

[Ian]

Your timing is impeccable Ian. Great to hear.

As one of the long time sharps here, it was clear that you had a ton of experience from somewhere. It certainly showed. Too many logical plays to be luck. Well played over the years sir.

Gotta love politics. Bribery at its finest.
All the racetrack betters should abandon all triples, pick 3’s4’s’6’s , whatever. The take out is so high it was barely at bet worth it before now, and after that bombshell hidden in that , whatever the heck someone wants to call it , which I will call a pile of corruption , it is a loser’s play and only the professional players will have any chance which will be slim with those high takeout tax withheld exotics.

If anyone goes to the track, bet to win or maybe exactas. That’s it.
All the best with your new gig Ian.

Thanks for the kind words. It's clear you know your horses. IMO the takeout and taxes killed the golden goose of the horse racing industry. Exotics especially... the vig and taxes on a score are just brutal.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I just saw your Vegas thread in the poker forum... sounds like a great time. Congrats on the cash.

I've only messed around with tournaments. The swings and juice are too high for my taste. Cash games bring a more consistent income, but with increasing rakes and some other factors the money just isn't what it used to be. Not being able to deduct all losses will be the nail in the coffin for a lot of grinders.

Salud, IAN. Definitely swings in Tournament poker. So often, it's a matter of winning/losing that one flip.

Cash-players rated > Tournament-players for so long. And there's some truth to it. Tournament-players need to be comfortable playing up to 75BB, cash-players play much deeper.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx, IAN. I was happy with my preparation and my play.

I really don't see many mis-steps that I made. A few critiques that I tell myself:
1) When you have someone to the sword, you can exploitatively size against them.
...You don't want them to fold. You want them to make a crying-call.

2) Flip side is that I sometimes leave $$ on the table on my Value bets.
...If Opponent is inelastic to sizing, they'll call more. So, sizing is something I work on.

3) I have my All In charts memorized pretty well. I do pretty well in the late stages.
...When right on the border-line, I do prefer Tight Fold instead of Loose Call. Players play so tight nowadays.

[Foxx]

https://x.com/repdinatitus/status/1941296944632246452

Maybe she can attach 500 billion dollars in pork to the bill, then it might have a chance.

I have an idea, let's increase the capital gains tax on stock trades by congressmen to 50%. We'd been running a surplus in no time.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Maybe she can attach 500 billion dollars in pork to the bill, then it might have a chance.

I have an idea, let's increase the capital gains tax on stock trades by congressmen to 50%. We'd been running a surplus in no time.

Good point, Foxx. One school of thought on any legislation. Step One = have some skin in the game.

1) If a politician declares war, they have to spend the first 24 hours on the front-line.
2) If they want to trim the fat, start w/ Congressmen taking a 10% hair-cut.

[Foosball Champ]

https://www.crapo.senate.gov/

[Headsterx]

Crapo has the running real time on national debt… lol

[pavyracer]

Crapo has the running real time on national debt… lol

I wonder if taxing the poker players and gamblers to death, they will be able to lower a few digits at the end of the debt clock.

[str]

I wonder if taxing the poker players and gamblers to death, they will be able to lower a few digits at the end of the debt clock.

I doubt it Pavy, but a few billionaires will pick up some more pocket change.

[EmpireMaker]

The Bill is awful for gamblers. All the money from these extra taxes and from all of the tariffs only go to tax breaks for the 1% and large corporations.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Crapo has the running real time on national debt… lol

This is a huge theme in 2025. $37B in debt. And it's going to crease $38B by end of 2025.

Austerity plan? Why bother? The politicians don't give up anything.

[str]

I wonder if any country has a better credit score than the USA.
Calculated purely by debt and payments , I would think it would be hard to top.

What a farce credit scores are.

[pavyracer]

I wonder if any country has a better credit score than the USA.
Calculated purely by debt and payments , I would think it would be hard to top.

What a farce credit scores are.

USA is paying China and Japan 1 trillion per year in interest on that debt. Do you think they are scared of tariffs when they make money out of US debt on a daily basis?

[str]

USA is paying China and Japan 1 trillion per year in interest on that debt. Do you think they are scared of tariffs when they make money out of US debt on a daily basis?

Lolol. Brilliantly played.

[DwightShrute]

USA is paying China and Japan 1 trillion per year in interest on that debt. Do you think they are scared of tariffs when they make money out of US debt on a daily basis?

No, the United States is not currently paying China and Japan a combined $1 trillion per year in interest on its debt. While China and Japan are significant holders of U.S. debt, the total interest paid annually is considerably less than that figure. According to the Congressional Budget Office, interest expenses are estimated to be around $952 billion this year, but this includes interest paid to all domestic and foreign holders of U.S. debt, not just China and Japan.
Here's a more detailed breakdown:

• Foreign Ownership of U.S. Debt:
  .
  Foreign investors, including those in China and Japan, hold a substantial portion of U.S. debt, but it's not the majority.
• Japan and China as Top Holders:
  .
  Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, followed by China.
• Interest Payments:
  .
  The U.S. government pays interest on its debt to all its creditors, both domestic and foreign. These payments come from tax revenue and are used to fund various government activities.
• Interest Expense Projection:
  .
  The Congressional Budget Office estimates that interest expenses will reach $952 billion this year and continue to grow.
• Interest Paid to China and Japan:
  .
  While specific figures for interest payments to China and Japan are not publicly available, they would be a portion of the overall interest expense. Some analyses estimate that the U.S. pays China alone around $23-24 billion in interest on Treasury debt and Fannie and Freddie Mae debt.
• Overall Debt:
  .
  The U.S. national debt is a complex issue with various factors influencing its growth, including government spending, tax revenue, and interest rates.

---

As of May 2025, Japan holds approximately $1.1 trillion of the U.S. debt. This makes Japan the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities. The total U.S. debt is around $36 trillion, and foreign governments and investors hold about one-third of it.

[str]

No, the United States is not currently paying China and Japan a combined $1 trillion per year in interest on its debt. While China and Japan are significant holders of U.S. debt, the total interest paid annually is considerably less than that figure. According to the Congressional Budget Office, interest expenses are estimated to be around $952 billion this year, but this includes interest paid to all domestic and foreign holders of U.S. debt, not just China and Japan.
Here's a more detailed breakdown:

• Foreign Ownership of U.S. Debt:
  .
  Foreign investors, including those in China and Japan, hold a substantial portion of U.S. debt, but it's not the majority.
• Japan and China as Top Holders:
  .
  Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, followed by China.
• Interest Payments:
  .
  The U.S. government pays interest on its debt to all its creditors, both domestic and foreign. These payments come from tax revenue and are used to fund various government activities.
• Interest Expense Projection:
  .
  The Congressional Budget Office estimates that interest expenses will reach $952 billion this year and continue to grow.
• Interest Paid to China and Japan:
  .
  While specific figures for interest payments to China and Japan are not publicly available, they would be a portion of the overall interest expense. Some analyses estimate that the U.S. pays China alone around $23-24 billion in interest on Treasury debt and Fannie and Freddie Mae debt.
• Overall Debt:
  .
  The U.S. national debt is a complex issue with various factors influencing its growth, including government spending, tax revenue, and interest rates.

---

As of May 2025, Japan holds approximately $1.1 trillion of the U.S. debt. This makes Japan the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities. The total U.S. debt is around $36 trillion, and foreign governments and investors hold about one-third of it.

Well you can’t blame any one person for it. Both parties share in that. It is outrageous that we owe all that though.
It was balanced to zero not that long ago right? If not, very close.
Too be fair, presidents propose bills, congress passes them. They should be fired for that. Any other accountant or firm would be.

[DwightShrute]

Well you can’t blame any one person for it. Both parties share in that. It is outrageous that we owe all that though.
It was balanced to zero not that long ago right? If not, very close.
Too be fair, presidents propose bills, congress passes them. They should be fired for that. Any other accountant or firm would be.

I was just correcting pavy's numbers on the debt is all

[pavyracer]

My numbers were correct. It says 952 billion in interest is paid every year for the debt. I rounded it to 1 trillion which is within 5%. And yes other countries own bonds. Japan and China are the largest owners of the bonds and the biggest beneficiaries of the interest payments.

[DwightShrute]

My numbers were correct. It says 952 billion in interest is paid every year for the debt. I rounded it to 1 trillion which is within 5%. And yes other countries own bonds. Japan and China are the largest owners of the bonds and the biggest beneficiaries of the interest payments.

you said "USA is paying China and Japan 1 trillion per year in interest on that debt." which of course isn't even close to true. Accept that you made a mistake and move on. I don't want to pollute this thread with politics, I wanted to respectfully correct your mistake is all.

Yes the US debt is huge and a problem. There are many countries that are worse. I am more concerned about the US dollar and how its losing its world currency power.

As far as the new bill with the gaming thing. I am not sure how I feel yet. It doesn't affect my sports betting accounts but I can see how it affects you guys in the US. Personally, I am against anyone having to pay tax of gambling winnings. You paid with after tax dollars to begin with so any winnings should always be tax free IMO. Same with the lottery. In Canada for example, if you win a million dollars in the lottery, you get a million dollars and you don't have to pay tax on it. You bought the ticket with money you already paid tax on. We all know it doesn't happen like that in the US.

---

Based on the provided data, here are some countries with the highest public debt-to-GDP ratios:
Countries with Very High Debt-to-GDP Ratios (generally above 150%):

• Sudan: 252% / 252% / 256% (driven by conflict and economic instability)
• Japan: 234.9% / 235% / 255% (highest among developed economies due to aging population and fiscal policies)
• Singapore: 174.9% / 175% / 168% (strategically used for investment, offset by assets)
• Eritrea: 164% / 210% (estimated) (high due to conflicts and restrictive policies)

Countries with High Debt-to-GDP Ratios (generally above 100%):

• Lebanon: 283%
• Greece: 142.2% / 142% / 149% (2025 forecast) (legacy of the Eurozone crisis)
• Italy: 137.3% / 138% (2025 forecast) (sluggish growth and high spending)
• United States: 122.5% / 123% (increase due to fiscal policies and pandemic response)
• France: 116.3% (large deficit and social spending)
• Canada: 112.5% (stimulus spending and housing market exposure)

[Foosball Champ]

in short. the apocalypse of sports betting.

[Bluehorseshoe]

https://x.com/repdinatitus/status/1942664402035171653

[Foxx]

There's some out there to reverse this idiotic new tax policy:

https://www.newsweek.com/big-beautiful-bill-gambling-betting-deductions-gaming-2100834