Tell me the books don't know. lol

**pavyracer** · 06-29-25, 06:02 PM

Books know everything. This is why you can't win in the long term. With AI now they can study the pattern of your betting and AI will tell them what to offer you so they can win more from you.

**ThaWoj** · 06-30-25, 12:06 AM

Even better was last Sunday DK had 2 super boosts. One was OKC ML and Shai 30+ points. I forgot what it was boosted to. But shai went ice cold in the 4th and ended on exactly 29....then there was Wnba super boost with CC+aja Wilson 45+ combined points...ended on 43 with clark missing a 3 pointer in the final seconds.

**str** · 06-30-25, 07:59 AM

It’s math, odds, and statistics.
They don’t know for sure, its the numbers talking.

**ProSportsEdge** · 06-30-25, 11:04 AM

Originally posted by Bluehorseshoe

I had over 8 1/2 in the Texas/Seattle game with FanDuel. It's 3-3 in extra innings and they start offering me plus money on my bet. Why? I understand they'll be a runner on second base in each inning, but they had one of the extra innings with zero runs scored. Why would they offer me more than my original bet?? One team could have just scored one run.

Get why that felt confusing. Even with a runner on second, extra innings can still be tight, like that scoreless inning you saw. Since you still needed 3 more runs, FanDuel probably saw it as a long shot and tried to entice you with a better cash-out. Just them hedging their bets.

**TommieGunshot** · 06-30-25, 01:07 PM

Any sports data the sportsbook know, we should know as well. The only information they could have that we don't is how customers are betting. But so many of them don't want to take bets, that's not usually meaningful.

Rough estimates, the road team will score 0 runs about 47% of the time, 1 run 28% of the time, 2 runs 11% of the time, and 3 or more runs 13% of the time: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-math...-disadvantage/
-If road team scores 0, game goes under about 55% of the time, or the bet stays unresolved about 45% of the time. (I would guess a home team three or four run home run is around 1-2%)
-If road team scores 1 or 2, game goes under about 45% and over 55%.
-If road team scores 3 or more, game goes over.

That's the basics of the algebra the sportsbooks use. They use more accurate numbers than what I can bother to make up for an internet message board and they can apply team and context specific values. But we can too. And beyond that, they don't know shit. And for things like middle inning bullpen usage the sportsbooks are not very good.