I created a model for MLB that is threatening to end the industry.

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  • jamesrav
    replied
    looks very good. I count 36 games in the table, plus the 2 on the 25th giving 38. Assuming -134 on the Giants 6/15 game, I calculate a +6.47. The other 8 games (to make 44) might contribute the missing +3 or so. Certainly quite good,, another 20 days should really tell the story.

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6-26-2025

    Mariners F5 +110

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    June 26, 2025

    Tigers / A’s Over 8.5 -120

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    1-0-1 today

    28-16-1 +10.27 units

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    Detailed Pick Breakdown
    June 5th Giants Moneyline Moneyline -114 Loss -1.14
    June 5th Mets vs Dodgers Under 9.5 Total (Under) -109 Loss -1.09
    June 5th Pirates vs Astros Under 7.5 Total (Under) +100 Win +1.00
    June 5th Twins Moneyline Moneyline -186 Loss -1.86
    June 6th Giants Moneyline Moneyline +122 Win +1.22
    June 7th Astros vs Guardians Under 7.5 Total (Under) -120 Win +2.00 (2 units)
    June 8th Phillies vs Pirates Under 7 Total (Under) -115 Win +1.00
    June 8th Twins Moneyline Moneyline -170 Win +1.00
    June 9th Reds vs Guardians Under 8.5 Total (Under) +100 Loss -1.00
    June 10th Angels Moneyline Moneyline -155 Win +1.00
    June 10th Giants Moneyline Moneyline -225 Win +1.00
    June 11th Angels Moneyline Moneyline -130 Win +1.00
    June 13th Mets Moneyline Moneyline -159 Loss -1.59
    June 13th Royals Moneyline Moneyline -152 Win +1.00
    June 15th Royals Moneyline Moneyline -148 Loss -1.48
    June 15th Giants +1.5 Runs Line Run Line N/A Win +1.00
    June 15th Dodgers Team Total Under 5 Team Total (Under) -148 Push 0.00
    June 16th Rays Moneyline Moneyline -120 Win +1.00
    June 16th Mariners Moneyline Moneyline -166 Loss -1.66
    June 16th Nationals Moneyline Moneyline -165 Loss -1.65
    June 17th Giants Moneyline Moneyline -153 Win +1.00
    June 18th Blue Jays Moneyline Moneyline -110 Win +1.00
    June 19th Braves/Mets First 5 Innings Under 4.5 Total (Under) -115 Win +1.00
    June 19th Giants Moneyline Moneyline -168 Win +1.00
    June 19th Rays/Tigers First 5 Innings Under 4.5 Total (Under) -125 Win +1.00
    June 20th Giants Moneyline Moneyline -120 Loss -1.20
    June 20th Rays/Tigers First 5 Innings Under 4.5 Total (Under) -125 Win +1.00
    June 20th Rockies/Dbacks Over 12 Total (Over) -110 Loss -1.10
    June 20th Angels/Astros First 5 Innings Under 4 Total (Under) +100 Win +1.00
    June 22nd Giants Moneyline Moneyline -150 Win +1.00
    June 22nd Dodgers Moneyline Moneyline -220 Win +1.00
    June 23rd Braves First 5 Innings Total (Under) -150 Win +1.00
    June 23rd Angels Full Game Moneyline +100 Win +1.00
    June 24th Giants Moneyline Moneyline -170 Loss -1.70
    June 24th Yankees Moneyline Moneyline -153 Loss -1.53
    June 24th Phillies/Astros First 5 Innings Under 3.5 Total (Under) +105 Win +1.05

    Summary
    • Total picks: 44
    • Wins: 27
    • Losses: 16
    • Pushes: 1
    • Net units won: +9.27 units (based on the running totals above)
    • Bet types: Majority Moneyline and Totals (Under/Over), with a few Run Line and Team Total bets.

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6-25-2025



    Angles F5 -140

    Twins F5 -130

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6/25/2025

    Twins First 5 Innings -130

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    Ill post the record tomorrow

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  • d2bets
    replied
    What's your weighted record? Why are you not tracking?

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    June 24, 2025


    Giants -170
    Yankees -153
    Phillies/Astros F5 Under 3.5 (+105)

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6-24-2025

    Giants -170

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    Back to back 2-0 days LFG

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6-23-2025



    Braves F5 -150 (win)



    Angels +100 Full Game

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6-23-2025

    Braved F5 -150

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6-22-2025







    Giants -150



    Dodgers -220

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied

    6-22-2025





    Giants -150

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6-21-2025





    Rockies/Dbacks over 12 -110



    F5 Angels/Astros under 4 +100

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6-20-2025


    Giants -120
    F5 Rays/Tigers under 4.5 -125

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6-20-2025

    F5 Rays/Tigers under 4.5 -125

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6-19-2025

    Braves/Mets first 5 under 4.5 -115

    Giants -168

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6-19-2025

    Giants -158

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6-18-2025

    Blue Jays -110

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6-17-2025

    Giants -153

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6-16-2025





    Rays -120

    Mariners -166

    Nationals -165

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6-16-2025

    Rays -120

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6-15-2025

    Giants +1.5

    Royals -148

    Dodgers team total under 5 -148

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6-15-2025

    Giants +1.5

    Royals -148

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6-15-2025

    Royals -148

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6-13-2025

    Mets -159

    Royals -152

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6-13-2025

    Mets -159

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  • Chiefs83
    replied
    Keep it going nice picks last couple days

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6-11-2025

    Angels -130

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6-10-2025

    Angels -155

    Giants -225


    We don’t normally like laying this kind of juice. In fact, we actively avoid it most of the time. But sometimes, the numbers justify it — and today’s Giants vs Rockies matchup is one of those cases.

    The line is sitting around –225, which implies a 69% win probability. That’s steep. But our internal model — which weighs starting pitcher quality, bullpen performance, offensive metrics, and home/road splits — projects the Giants closer to 73% to win. That gives us about a +4% edge over the market, which is significant when all signals align.

    Matchup Breakdown:
    • Starting Pitchers: Kyle Harrison (SF) vs Carson Palmquist (COL).
      Harrison’s been solid: 4.34 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 19 K in 18.2 IP. Palmquist? 8.50 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, high walk rate. Clear mismatch.
    • Bullpens: Giants pen ranks top 10 in ERA/WHIP; Rockies’ pen is bottom-tier in both.
    • Offense: SF has consistent producers in Ramos, Chapman, Flores. Colorado is hitting .219 as a team with one real threat (Hunter Goodman).
    • Trends: Giants are hot — 5 straight wins. Rockies are 6–25 at home this season. Not a typo.

    This isn’t a YOLO pick. It’s not a square “better team wins” take. It’s a spot where every edge stacks up: SP, bullpen, offense, team form, home/road trend, and even motivation.

    We’ll usually pass on laying –225. But when our model says it should be –270 or worse, we listen.

    Final Play: Giants ML (–225)
    Let’s cash it.

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6-10-2025

    Angels -155

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  • HoleWrecker
    replied
    6-9-2025

    Reds/Guardians under 8.5 +100

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