I created a model for MLB that is threatening to end the industry.

[HoleWrecker]

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  HoleWrecker
  SBR Sharp
  • Join Date: 10-12-24
  • Posts: 294
  
  
  #36
  06-25-25, 03:28 AM
  6/25/2025
  
  Twins First 5 Innings -130
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  HoleWrecker
  SBR Sharp
  • Join Date: 10-12-24
  • Posts: 294
  
  
  #37
  06-25-25, 02:08 PM
  6-25-2025
  
  
  
  Angles F5 -140
  
  Twins F5 -130
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  HoleWrecker
  SBR Sharp
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  #38
  06-25-25, 04:51 PM
  Detailed Pick Breakdown

  June 5th	Giants Moneyline	Moneyline	-114	Loss	-1.14
  June 5th	Mets vs Dodgers Under 9.5	Total (Under)	-109	Loss	-1.09
  June 5th	Pirates vs Astros Under 7.5	Total (Under)	+100	Win	+1.00
  June 5th	Twins Moneyline	Moneyline	-186	Loss	-1.86
  June 6th	Giants Moneyline	Moneyline	+122	Win	+1.22
  June 7th	Astros vs Guardians Under 7.5	Total (Under)	-120	Win	+2.00 (2 units)
  June 8th	Phillies vs Pirates Under 7	Total (Under)	-115	Win	+1.00
  June 8th	Twins Moneyline	Moneyline	-170	Win	+1.00
  June 9th	Reds vs Guardians Under 8.5	Total (Under)	+100	Loss	-1.00
  June 10th	Angels Moneyline	Moneyline	-155	Win	+1.00
  June 10th	Giants Moneyline	Moneyline	-225	Win	+1.00
  June 11th	Angels Moneyline	Moneyline	-130	Win	+1.00
  June 13th	Mets Moneyline	Moneyline	-159	Loss	-1.59
  June 13th	Royals Moneyline	Moneyline	-152	Win	+1.00
  June 15th	Royals Moneyline	Moneyline	-148	Loss	-1.48
  June 15th	Giants +1.5 Runs Line	Run Line	N/A	Win	+1.00
  June 15th	Dodgers Team Total Under 5	Team Total (Under)	-148	Push	0.00
  June 16th	Rays Moneyline	Moneyline	-120	Win	+1.00
  June 16th	Mariners Moneyline	Moneyline	-166	Loss	-1.66
  June 16th	Nationals Moneyline	Moneyline	-165	Loss	-1.65
  June 17th	Giants Moneyline	Moneyline	-153	Win	+1.00
  June 18th	Blue Jays Moneyline	Moneyline	-110	Win	+1.00
  June 19th	Braves/Mets First 5 Innings Under 4.5	Total (Under)	-115	Win	+1.00
  June 19th	Giants Moneyline	Moneyline	-168	Win	+1.00
  June 19th	Rays/Tigers First 5 Innings Under 4.5	Total (Under)	-125	Win	+1.00
  June 20th	Giants Moneyline	Moneyline	-120	Loss	-1.20
  June 20th	Rays/Tigers First 5 Innings Under 4.5	Total (Under)	-125	Win	+1.00
  June 20th	Rockies/Dbacks Over 12	Total (Over)	-110	Loss	-1.10
  June 20th	Angels/Astros First 5 Innings Under 4	Total (Under)	+100	Win	+1.00
  June 22nd	Giants Moneyline	Moneyline	-150	Win	+1.00
  June 22nd	Dodgers Moneyline	Moneyline	-220	Win	+1.00
  June 23rd	Braves First 5 Innings	Total (Under)	-150	Win	+1.00
  June 23rd	Angels Full Game	Moneyline	+100	Win	+1.00
  June 24th	Giants Moneyline	Moneyline	-170	Loss	-1.70
  June 24th	Yankees Moneyline	Moneyline	-153	Loss	-1.53
  June 24th	Phillies/Astros First 5 Innings Under 3.5	Total (Under)	+105	Win	+1.05

[HoleWrecker]

The two unit play was Pirates/Astros under and it hit. I remember that one. This is fucking absurd. I know for an absolute fact that my picks are up in this thread.

[HoleWrecker]

What’s funny is the headline in this thread and your record keeping. You are too dumb to realize that’s why you are getting massive heat.

No whats funny is they make bozos like you moderators and wonder why this site is a joke now. I updated the record several times. You guys just get off on playing toxic internet boy.

[stevenash]

It really is a simple exercise but he isn’t betting at all. We’ve seen this 1000 times over the years.

I got this, MJ.

Mr. Wreckers' straight-up record is indeed 41-34-3.
He's made 78 wagers over the past 38 days.

Of those 78 wagers, he bet the favorite 72 times, three times he bet the dog, and the other three wagers were a pick.
77 of the 78 bets were one-unit flat bets, the other was a 2* bet, which, horrors of horrors, failed.

So what we have here is a flat betting serial chalk layer.
Always a winning formula in the world of baseball betting.

The three underdogs that Mr. Wrecker bet had odds of +122, +110, and +105
( I know, pretty ballsy, huh?)
The dogs went 2-1.

Assuming 1* = 100 dollars, he collected 3,900 dollars on the chalk, and picked up another 232 dollars on the two dogs that won (+122, and +110) for a total of 4,132 dollars.

With the juice, his 37 losses cost him 4895 dollars, for a net loss of 763 dollars (-7.63*)

Sixteen of those 37 losses he laid -150 or greater, six of those were losses of -170 or greater, and a -210 loss to boot.

Which goes to show what I've been preaching here for the last fourteen years, there's no quicker burial in sports betting than volume betting baseball chalk, especially when 77 out of 78 bets are 1* flats.

[mjsuax13]

That's what I said. Why bother grading if the system is so great? Just bet each play on your book and let the book grade it and show us the cash out.

Right?! Why not bet $1 million a game and sit back and collect your winnings and laugh at all of us minions.

[ByeShea]

" No sorry ... because too many people online from sbr already hammered it"?

Exactly what Bonnie Blue said to me a couple of months ago.

[pavyracer]

It really is a simple exercise but he isn’t betting at all. We’ve seen this 1000 times over the years.

That's what I said. Why bother grading if the system is so great? Just bet each play on your book and let the book grade it and show us the cash out.

[mjsuax13]

do it here. show every play u made and show us what your record is and how u r up money.

It really is a simple exercise but he isn’t betting at all. We’ve seen this 1000 times over the years.

[mjsuax13]

Youre a moderator? Thats funny. Now you're claiming I don't bet because I don't upfate the record every day.

What’s funny is the headline in this thread and your record keeping. You are too dumb to realize that’s why you are getting massive heat.

[2Sweeet]

Oh wait LKID already did.

[2Sweeet]

I just updated the record correctly. I went through and did it myself. It wasn't anywhere near what these buffoons were trying to claim.

do it here. show every play u made and show us what your record is and how u r up money.

[2Sweeet]

This is hot garbage.

6/5 SF -114 W,, LAD un 9.5 -109 L , Hou un 7.5 +100 L , Minn -186 L
6/6 SF +122 W
6/7 Hou un 7.5 -120 x2 (F/10inn 5-3) L
6/8 Phil un 7 -115 W , Minn -170 W
6/9 Cle un 8.5 +100 L
6/10 LAA -155 W (closing line was -175), SF -225 W
6/11 LAA -130 W (closing line was -150)
6/12 no play
6/13 NYM -159 L , KC -152 L
6/14 no play
6/15 KC -148 L , SF +1.5 (no line listed) W , LAD TT un 5 -148 Push
6/16 TB -120 W , Sea -166 L , Nats -165 L
6/17 SF -153 L
6/18 Tor -110 W
6/19 SF -168 W , NYM F5 un 4.5 -115 W
6/20 TB F5 un 4.5 -125 L , SF -120 L
6/21 Col ov 12 -110 L , Hou F5 un 4 +100 L
6/22 SF -150 W , LAD -220 W
6/23 ATL F5 -150 W , LAA +100 W
6/24 SF -170 L , NYY -153 L , Hou F5 un 3.5 +105 W
6/25 Minn F5 -130 Push , LAA F5 -140 W
6/26 Det ov 8.5 -120 L , Sea F5 +110 L
6/27 NYY -201 W , LAA F5 -175 W , TB F5 -130 L
6/28 Mil F5 -1/2 -145 L , Oak TT un 4.5 -210 L , CWS TT un 3.5 -135 W , Hou F5 ML -115 L
6/29 Tor F5 +1/2 -154 W , ATL F5 un 4.5 -160 W , Mil F5 -1/2 -134 L
6/30 Bos F5 -215 W , TB F5 un 4.5 -145 L , Ari TT un 4.5 -195 W
7/1 SD un 9 -158 PPD , STL F5 TT un 1.5 -166 W , Bal TT un 3.5 -145 W
7/2 LAA F5 -110 W , Mil F5 -175 L , TX -135 W
7/3 SF -114 W
7/4 Bal F5 un 5.5 -180 W , CHC TT ov 4.5 -140 W
7/5 Oak TT un 4.5 -190 W , LAD F5 un 4.5 -125 L , SF F5 -200 W
7/6 Mil F5 un 4.5 -130 W , Col ov 11 -110 L
7/7 LAA F5 un 4.5 L
7/8 , 7/9 no plays
7/10 Sea F5 ML -160 W , ATl ML -182 L , TB F5 ML -115 W
7/11 Det F5 un 3.5 -130 L , Pitt F5 un 3.5 -140 W , SF F5 un 4.5 -166 L
7/12 Det ML -127 L , Hou F5 un 3.5 -125 W , LAA F5 ML -125 W , Tor -157 L

41-33-2 + 1 PPD

Avg juice -143

total -665 (based on 100 wager)

need to win at about 58.85% to break even at avg plays of -143

41-33 = 55%

Are these not your plays ASSHOLEWRECKER? Numbers don't lie. I haven't followed along but if these are your plays you are down and it's not close.

[HoleWrecker]

Then stop posting… lots of commentary on record keeping in here. Quit using CHATGPT to grade this shit. If you were really betting you’d already know if it’s a win/loss/push.

Youre a moderator? Thats funny. Now you're claiming I don't bet because I don't upfate the record every day.

[HoleWrecker]

I just updated the record correctly. I went through and did it myself. It wasn't anywhere near what these buffoons were trying to claim.

[mjsuax13]

75 picks and a winning record and lets saloon it. No wonder this site is dying.

Then stop posting… lots of commentary on record keeping in here. Quit using CHATGPT to grade this shit. If you were really betting you’d already know if it’s a win/loss/push.

[HoleWrecker]

75 picks and a winning record and lets saloon it. No wonder this site is dying.

[mjsuax13]

This thread should be salooned here soon.

[HoleWrecker]

correction

49-26 +5.48 Units

[HoleWrecker]

I shouldnt say all of you. Some of you are cool.

[HoleWrecker]

zsbr might be a group of the biggest dumbasses Ive ever seen

[HoleWrecker]

Since June 5 until now

49-25 +7.25 Units

What is wrong with you people?

[HoleWrecker]

This is not possible. When I uploaded my record I was +double digit units or so. Theres no chance in hell that I lost 17 units since then its not even close.

And what is "keeo it to yourself" supposed to mean? So I won't be able to place the same bets anymore because I posted them online, thats what your saying?

When I go to place my wager the sportsbook is gonna be like" No sorry we can't take that bet because too many people online from sbr already hammered it"?

No dude. I seriously doubt anyone here is gonna move all the lines at the books. Thats a laugable take.

[EnTaroTuna]

I got the exact same results as LouisvilleKid, spreadsheet attached. Feel free to let us know if we got anything wrong, but now the results have been double checked. I didn't just claim your wins were losses, I linked them to the game results in baseball-reference.com for verification. To be fair, I did also say you had listed a loss that was actually a win and gave you credit for that one (very first one).

With yesterday's loss, record comes to 41-34-3, 7.88 units lost, ROI of -6.91%.

If you're going to claim your model is going to end the industry, then you better have verifiable proof. Not having accurate record keeping tells us that the original signal you found was probably false signal due to improper grading of bets, and probably not on purpose. I don't think you made up data for a signal, that's why I asked what you used to grade your bets and that you should look into it. I've made mistakes myself, I wrote code to grade bets and then acted on my algorithm but later found out that I was grading spreads and Asian bets improperly so I had to revisit that code multiple times. It still might not be perfect, but I'm open to that possibility.

It's easy to backtest a strategy and find something really strong, only to find out that it doesn't pan out going forward due to overfitting. I've probably gone through 20-30 different strategies at this point where backtesting showed huge ROIs but once I actually bet on them, they proved to be negative ROI.

Also, who are you trying to prove this strategy to? If it's actually threatening to end the industry, keep that to yourself and go make millions. The more you try to defend yourself, the less credibility you have.

[HoleWrecker]

Ill go through and update the record and make sure its completely accurate during this All Star break.

[HoleWrecker]

These dudes are complete losers. Thats a disgraceful way for a grown man to act. I was off by one unit so he creates a table claiming a ton of bets that were wins are losses, got it.

Forgive me if I find this schoolgirl type behavior indefensibly retarded.

[Optional]

Im nowhere near what they are claiming. It makes no sense. Whats the point of falsifying my record for way worse than what it really is?

Because that is what people tend to do when you claim a winning system and only offer fuzzy record keeping. Seen it over and again during the years.

The power is in your hands to shut them up if you want. Or to ignore them.

[HoleWrecker]

Keep an accurate record and you wont have the problem?

As it is what can you say? You claiming it is winning holds about as much water as Foosball saying its down 10 units right now.


Dont keep a record at all and just share picks day to day is another way to avoid this stuff.

But just start keeping a proper record from now on if you really care about shutting them up.

The only thing you shouldn't do is argue with them. Just gives them an excuse to make more posts.

Im nowhere near what they are claiming. It makes no sense. Whats the point of falsifying my record for way worse than what it really is?

[Optional]

When I updated my record, if it was off, it was by maybe 1 unit or so. Why are you idiots claiming all this outrageous shit?

Keep an accurate record and you wont have the problem?

As it is what can you say? You claiming it is winning holds about as much water as Foosball saying its down 10 units right now.


Dont keep a record at all and just share picks day to day is another way to avoid this stuff.

But just start keeping a proper record from now on if you really care about shutting them up.

The only thing you shouldn't do is argue with them. Just gives them an excuse to make more posts.

[HoleWrecker]

When I updated my record, if it was off, it was by maybe 1 unit or so. Why are you idiots claiming all this outrageous shit?

[HoleWrecker]

No you guys are clowns. Im not even down units at all. Just a bunch of disgruntled losing bettors lookin to talk shit here.

[Foosball Champ]

Theres no way in hell this thread is down over 6 units.

you're correct its down over 10 units

[HoleWrecker]

Theres no way in hell this thread is down over 6 units.

[HoleWrecker]

7-13-2025



Astros/Rangers F5 under 3.5 -125

[Optional]

Nice to see your face LK

[louisvillekid]

This is hot garbage.

6/5 SF -114 W,, LAD un 9.5 -109 L , Hou un 7.5 +100 L , Minn -186 L
6/6 SF +122 W
6/7 Hou un 7.5 -120 x2 (F/10inn 5-3) L
6/8 Phil un 7 -115 W , Minn -170 W
6/9 Cle un 8.5 +100 L
6/10 LAA -155 W (closing line was -175), SF -225 W
6/11 LAA -130 W (closing line was -150)
6/12 no play
6/13 NYM -159 L , KC -152 L
6/14 no play
6/15 KC -148 L , SF +1.5 (no line listed) W , LAD TT un 5 -148 Push
6/16 TB -120 W , Sea -166 L , Nats -165 L
6/17 SF -153 L
6/18 Tor -110 W
6/19 SF -168 W , NYM F5 un 4.5 -115 W
6/20 TB F5 un 4.5 -125 L , SF -120 L
6/21 Col ov 12 -110 L , Hou F5 un 4 +100 L
6/22 SF -150 W , LAD -220 W
6/23 ATL F5 -150 W , LAA +100 W
6/24 SF -170 L , NYY -153 L , Hou F5 un 3.5 +105 W
6/25 Minn F5 -130 Push , LAA F5 -140 W
6/26 Det ov 8.5 -120 L , Sea F5 +110 L
6/27 NYY -201 W , LAA F5 -175 W , TB F5 -130 L
6/28 Mil F5 -1/2 -145 L , Oak TT un 4.5 -210 L , CWS TT un 3.5 -135 W , Hou F5 ML -115 L
6/29 Tor F5 +1/2 -154 W , ATL F5 un 4.5 -160 W , Mil F5 -1/2 -134 L
6/30 Bos F5 -215 W , TB F5 un 4.5 -145 L , Ari TT un 4.5 -195 W
7/1 SD un 9 -158 PPD , STL F5 TT un 1.5 -166 W , Bal TT un 3.5 -145 W
7/2 LAA F5 -110 W , Mil F5 -175 L , TX -135 W
7/3 SF -114 W
7/4 Bal F5 un 5.5 -180 W , CHC TT ov 4.5 -140 W
7/5 Oak TT un 4.5 -190 W , LAD F5 un 4.5 -125 L , SF F5 -200 W
7/6 Mil F5 un 4.5 -130 W , Col ov 11 -110 L
7/7 LAA F5 un 4.5 L
7/8 , 7/9 no plays
7/10 Sea F5 ML -160 W , ATl ML -182 L , TB F5 ML -115 W
7/11 Det F5 un 3.5 -130 L , Pitt F5 un 3.5 -140 W , SF F5 un 4.5 -166 L
7/12 Det ML -127 L , Hou F5 un 3.5 -125 W , LAA F5 ML -125 W , Tor -157 L

41-33-2 + 1 PPD

Avg juice -143

total -665 (based on 100 wager)

need to win at about 58.85% to break even at avg plays of -143

41-33 = 55%