I created a model for MLB that is threatening to end the industry.
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This is hot garbage.
6/5 SF -114 W,, LAD un 9.5 -109 L , Hou un 7.5 +100 L , Minn -186 L
6/6 SF +122 W
6/7 Hou un 7.5 -120 x2 (F/10inn 5-3) L
6/8 Phil un 7 -115 W , Minn -170 W
6/9 Cle un 8.5 +100 L
6/10 LAA -155 W (closing line was -175), SF -225 W
6/11 LAA -130 W (closing line was -150)
6/12 no play
6/13 NYM -159 L , KC -152 L
6/14 no play
6/15 KC -148 L , SF +1.5 (no line listed) W , LAD TT un 5 -148 Push
6/16 TB -120 W , Sea -166 L , Nats -165 L
6/17 SF -153 L
6/18 Tor -110 W
6/19 SF -168 W , NYM F5 un 4.5 -115 W
6/20 TB F5 un 4.5 -125 L , SF -120 L
6/21 Col ov 12 -110 L , Hou F5 un 4 +100 L
6/22 SF -150 W , LAD -220 W
6/23 ATL F5 -150 W , LAA +100 W
6/24 SF -170 L , NYY -153 L , Hou F5 un 3.5 +105 W
6/25 Minn F5 -130 Push , LAA F5 -140 W
6/26 Det ov 8.5 -120 L , Sea F5 +110 L
6/27 NYY -201 W , LAA F5 -175 W , TB F5 -130 L
6/28 Mil F5 -1/2 -145 L , Oak TT un 4.5 -210 L , CWS TT un 3.5 -135 W , Hou F5 ML -115 L
6/29 Tor F5 +1/2 -154 W , ATL F5 un 4.5 -160 W , Mil F5 -1/2 -134 L
6/30 Bos F5 -215 W , TB F5 un 4.5 -145 L , Ari TT un 4.5 -195 W
7/1 SD un 9 -158 PPD , STL F5 TT un 1.5 -166 W , Bal TT un 3.5 -145 W
7/2 LAA F5 -110 W , Mil F5 -175 L , TX -135 W
7/3 SF -114 W
7/4 Bal F5 un 5.5 -180 W , CHC TT ov 4.5 -140 W
7/5 Oak TT un 4.5 -190 W , LAD F5 un 4.5 -125 L , SF F5 -200 W
7/6 Mil F5 un 4.5 -130 W , Col ov 11 -110 L
7/7 LAA F5 un 4.5 L
7/8 , 7/9 no plays
7/10 Sea F5 ML -160 W , ATl ML -182 L , TB F5 ML -115 W
7/11 Det F5 un 3.5 -130 L , Pitt F5 un 3.5 -140 W , SF F5 un 4.5 -166 L
7/12 Det ML -127 L , Hou F5 un 3.5 -125 W , LAA F5 ML -125 W , Tor -157 L
41-33-2 + 1 PPD
Avg juice -143
total -665 (based on 100 wager)
need to win at about 58.85% to break even at avg plays of -143
41-33 = 55%
👍 1Leave a comment:
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😂 1Leave a comment:
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Anyone that comes with a system needs to be posting his bets from the book so that the winnings or losses are documented. At the end of the day this is what matters. Did you cash out? Or did you lose your deposit?Leave a comment:
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Have you been banned from every book 'in the industry' or are you just yappingLeave a comment:
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July 12, 2025- Tigers ML –127
- Rangers/Astros First 5 Innings Under 3.5 (–125)
- Angels First 5 Innings ML (–125)
- Blue Jays ML –157
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Im way above 2.5%. It just seems that for whatever reason nobody is able to go through and get an accurate W-L and units won record for this thread. They keep breaking it down into segments and its starting to make me shake my head a bit.
That being said, its my responsibility to keep records. Chatgpt is a massive pile of shit when it comes to numbers and I didnt know that until recently. When I updated the record, its very close to accurate though.Leave a comment:
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Trust but verify.
I track everything in a database, accurate reporting is key to knowing whether you're actually onto something. I thought I had a killer strategy in MLB as well but turned out I was just lucky. I've bet on so many signals I thought were really strong but then realized after the fact that I made some mistake in accounting and it wasn't profitable in the end.
Still looking for a strong signal, especially with the gambling tax changes from Trump's bill. We'll need to beat the market at > 2.5% ROI to keep anything.Leave a comment:
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Yeah. From 6/5 to 6/24 (what's in the table), there were 35 bets, updated record is 17-17-1, cumulative net loss of 7.29 units. That's betting to win 1 unit when favored or betting 1 unit when a dog.Since then, from 6/25 to 7/10, you made 3.46 units back with a record of 21-12-2.Date Pick Team(s) Spread Odds units wagered result Net Cumulative Net 6/5/2025 Moneyline Giants -114 1 1.14 Win 1 1 6/5/2025 Total Under Mets/Dodgers 9.5 -109 1 1.09 Loss -1.09 -0.09 6/5/2025 Total Under Pirates/Astros 7.5 100 1 1 Loss -1 -1.09 6/5/2025 Moneyline Twins -186 1 1.86 Loss -1.86 -2.95 6/6/2025 Moneyline Giants 122 1 1 Win 1.22 -1.73 6/7/2025 Total Under Astros/Guardians 7.5 -120 2 2.4 Loss -2.4 -4.13 6/8/2025 Total Under Phillies/Pirates 7 -115 1 1.15 Win 1 -3.13 6/8/2025 Moneyline Twins -170 1 1.7 Win 1 -2.13 6/9/2025 Total Under Reds/Guardians 8.5 100 1 1 Loss -1 -3.13 6/10/2025 Moneyline Angels -155 1 1.55 Win 1 -2.13 6/10/2025 Moneyline Giants -225 1 2.25 Win 1 -1.13 6/11/2025 Moneyline Angels -130 1 1.3 Win 1 -0.13 6/13/2025 Moneyline Mets -159 1 1.59 Loss -1.59 -1.72 6/13/2025 Moneyline Royals -152 1 1.52 Loss -1.52 -3.24 6/15/2025 Run Line Giants 1.5 -130 1 1.3 Win 1 -2.24 6/15/2025 Moneyline Royals -148 1 1.48 Loss -1.48 -3.72 6/15/2025 Team Total Under Dodgers 5 -148 1 1.48 Push 0 -3.72 6/16/2025 Moneyline Rays -120 1 1.2 Win 1 -2.72 6/16/2025 Moneyline Mariners -166 1 1.66 Loss -1.66 -4.38 6/16/2025 Moneyline Nationals -165 1 1.65 Loss -1.65 -6.03 6/17/2025 Moneyline Giants -153 1 1.53 Loss -1.53 -7.56 6/18/2025 Moneyline Blue Jays -110 1 1.1 Win 1 -6.56 6/19/2025 First 5 Innings Under Braves/Mets 4.5 -115 1 1.15 Win 1 -5.56 6/19/2025 Moneyline Giants -158 1 1.58 Win 1 -4.56 6/20/2025 First 5 Innings Under Rays/Tigers 4.5 -125 1 1.25 Loss -1.25 -5.81 6/20/2025 Moneyline Giants -120 1 1.2 Loss -1.2 -7.01 6/21/2025 Total Over Rockies/Dbacks 12 -110 1 1.1 Loss -1.1 -8.11 6/21/2025 First 5 Innings Under Angels/Astros 4 100 1 1 Loss -1 -9.11 6/22/2025 Moneyline Giants -150 1 1.5 Win 1 -8.11 6/22/2025 Moneyline Dodgers -220 1 2.2 Win 1 -7.11 6/23/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Braves -150 1 1.5 Win 1 -6.11 6/23/2025 Moneyline Angels 100 1 1 Win 1 -5.11 6/24/2025 Moneyline Giants -170 1 1.7 Loss -1.7 -6.81 6/24/2025 Moneyline Yankees -153 1 1.53 Loss -1.53 -8.34 6/24/2025 First 5 Innings Under Phillies/Astros 3.5 105 1 1 Win 1.05 -7.29
Date Pick Team(s) Spread Odds units wagered result Net Cumulative Net 6/25/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Angels -140 1 1.4 Win 1 1 6/25/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Minnesota Twins -130 1 1.3 Push 0 1 6/26/2025 Total Over Tigers/A's 8.5 -120 1 1.2 Loss -1.2 -0.2 6/26/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Mariners 110 1 1 Loss -1 -1.2 6/27/2025 Moneyline Yankees -201 1 2.01 Win 1 -0.2 6/27/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Angels -175 1 1.75 Win 1 0.8 6/27/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Rays -130 1 1.3 Loss -1.3 -0.5 6/28/2025 Team Total Under A's 4.5 -210 1 2.1 Loss -2.1 -2.6 6/28/2025 Team Total Under White Sox 3.5 -135 1 1.35 Win 1 -1.6 6/28/2025 First 5 Innings Run Line Brewers -0.5 -145 1 1.45 Win 1 -0.6 6/28/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Astros -115 1 1.15 Loss -1.15 -1.75 6/29/2025 First 5 Innings Run Line Brewers -0.5 -154 1 1.54 Loss -1.54 -3.29 6/29/2025 First 5 Innings Spread Blue Jays 0.5 -154 1 1.54 Win 1 -2.29 6/29/2025 First 5 Innings Total Under Braves/Phillies 4.5 -160 1 1.6 Win 1 -1.29 6/30/2025 Team Total Under Diamondbacks 4.5 -195 1 1.95 Win 1 -0.29 6/30/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Red Sox -215 1 2.15 Win 1 0.71 6/30/2025 First 5 Innings Total Under Rays/A's 4.5 -145 1 1.45 Loss -1.45 -0.74 7/1/2025 Total Under Phillies/Padres 9 -158 1 1.58 Push 0 -0.74 7/1/2025 First 5 Team Total Under Cardinals 1.5 -166 1 1.66 Win 1 0.26 7/1/2025 Team Total Under Orioles 3.5 -145 1 1.45 Win 1 1.26 7/2/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Angels -110 1 1.1 Win 1 2.26 7/2/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Brewers -175 1 1.75 Loss -1.75 0.51 7/2/2025 Moneyline Rangers -135 1 1.35 Win 1 1.51 7/3/2025 Moneyline Giants -114 1 1.14 Win 1 2.51 7/4/2025 First 5 Innings Total Under Braves/Orioles 5.5 -180 1 1.8 Win 1 3.51 7/4/2025 Team Total Over Cubs 4.5 -140 1 1.4 Win 1 4.51 7/5/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Giants -200 1 2 Win 1 5.51 7/5/2025 Team Total Under Athletics 4.5 -190 1 1.9 Win 1 6.51 7/5/2025 First 5 Innings Total Under Astros/Dodgers 4.5 -125 1 1.25 Loss -1.25 5.26 7/6/2025 Total Over Rockies/White Sox 11 -110 1 1.1 Loss -1.1 4.16 7/6/2025 First 5 Innings Total Under Marlins/Brewers 4.5 -130 1 1.3 Win 1 5.16 7/7/2025 First 5 Innings Total Under Rangers/Angels 4.5 -188 1 1.88 Loss -1.88 3.28 7/10/2025 Moneyline Braves -182 1 1.82 Loss -1.82 1.46 7/10/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Mariners -160 1 1.6 Win 1 2.46 7/10/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Rays -115 1 1.15 Win 1 3.46
I'd look into how you're getting the bets graded, or just do them manually, it's only a few games a day. On a few days you did come back to recap your performance and you did correctly mention you had a 7 day win streak from 6/29 to 7/5.Leave a comment:
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Im up well over 10 units since the beginning. I have no idea why people continue to break it down in this strange manner.Leave a comment:
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Yeah. From 6/5 to 6/24 (what's in the table), there were 35 bets, updated record is 17-17-1, cumulative net loss of 7.29 units. That's betting to win 1 unit when favored or betting 1 unit when a dog.Since then, from 6/25 to 7/10, you made 3.46 units back with a record of 21-12-2.Date Pick Team(s) Spread Odds units wagered result Net Cumulative Net 6/5/2025 Moneyline Giants -114 1 1.14 Win 1 1 6/5/2025 Total Under Mets/Dodgers 9.5 -109 1 1.09 Loss -1.09 -0.09 6/5/2025 Total Under Pirates/Astros 7.5 100 1 1 Loss -1 -1.09 6/5/2025 Moneyline Twins -186 1 1.86 Loss -1.86 -2.95 6/6/2025 Moneyline Giants 122 1 1 Win 1.22 -1.73 6/7/2025 Total Under Astros/Guardians 7.5 -120 2 2.4 Loss -2.4 -4.13 6/8/2025 Total Under Phillies/Pirates 7 -115 1 1.15 Win 1 -3.13 6/8/2025 Moneyline Twins -170 1 1.7 Win 1 -2.13 6/9/2025 Total Under Reds/Guardians 8.5 100 1 1 Loss -1 -3.13 6/10/2025 Moneyline Angels -155 1 1.55 Win 1 -2.13 6/10/2025 Moneyline Giants -225 1 2.25 Win 1 -1.13 6/11/2025 Moneyline Angels -130 1 1.3 Win 1 -0.13 6/13/2025 Moneyline Mets -159 1 1.59 Loss -1.59 -1.72 6/13/2025 Moneyline Royals -152 1 1.52 Loss -1.52 -3.24 6/15/2025 Run Line Giants 1.5 -130 1 1.3 Win 1 -2.24 6/15/2025 Moneyline Royals -148 1 1.48 Loss -1.48 -3.72 6/15/2025 Team Total Under Dodgers 5 -148 1 1.48 Push 0 -3.72 6/16/2025 Moneyline Rays -120 1 1.2 Win 1 -2.72 6/16/2025 Moneyline Mariners -166 1 1.66 Loss -1.66 -4.38 6/16/2025 Moneyline Nationals -165 1 1.65 Loss -1.65 -6.03 6/17/2025 Moneyline Giants -153 1 1.53 Loss -1.53 -7.56 6/18/2025 Moneyline Blue Jays -110 1 1.1 Win 1 -6.56 6/19/2025 First 5 Innings Under Braves/Mets 4.5 -115 1 1.15 Win 1 -5.56 6/19/2025 Moneyline Giants -158 1 1.58 Win 1 -4.56 6/20/2025 First 5 Innings Under Rays/Tigers 4.5 -125 1 1.25 Loss -1.25 -5.81 6/20/2025 Moneyline Giants -120 1 1.2 Loss -1.2 -7.01 6/21/2025 Total Over Rockies/Dbacks 12 -110 1 1.1 Loss -1.1 -8.11 6/21/2025 First 5 Innings Under Angels/Astros 4 100 1 1 Loss -1 -9.11 6/22/2025 Moneyline Giants -150 1 1.5 Win 1 -8.11 6/22/2025 Moneyline Dodgers -220 1 2.2 Win 1 -7.11 6/23/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Braves -150 1 1.5 Win 1 -6.11 6/23/2025 Moneyline Angels 100 1 1 Win 1 -5.11 6/24/2025 Moneyline Giants -170 1 1.7 Loss -1.7 -6.81 6/24/2025 Moneyline Yankees -153 1 1.53 Loss -1.53 -8.34 6/24/2025 First 5 Innings Under Phillies/Astros 3.5 105 1 1 Win 1.05 -7.29
Date Pick Team(s) Spread Odds units wagered result Net Cumulative Net 6/25/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Angels -140 1 1.4 Win 1 1 6/25/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Minnesota Twins -130 1 1.3 Push 0 1 6/26/2025 Total Over Tigers/A's 8.5 -120 1 1.2 Loss -1.2 -0.2 6/26/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Mariners 110 1 1 Loss -1 -1.2 6/27/2025 Moneyline Yankees -201 1 2.01 Win 1 -0.2 6/27/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Angels -175 1 1.75 Win 1 0.8 6/27/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Rays -130 1 1.3 Loss -1.3 -0.5 6/28/2025 Team Total Under A's 4.5 -210 1 2.1 Loss -2.1 -2.6 6/28/2025 Team Total Under White Sox 3.5 -135 1 1.35 Win 1 -1.6 6/28/2025 First 5 Innings Run Line Brewers -0.5 -145 1 1.45 Win 1 -0.6 6/28/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Astros -115 1 1.15 Loss -1.15 -1.75 6/29/2025 First 5 Innings Run Line Brewers -0.5 -154 1 1.54 Loss -1.54 -3.29 6/29/2025 First 5 Innings Spread Blue Jays 0.5 -154 1 1.54 Win 1 -2.29 6/29/2025 First 5 Innings Total Under Braves/Phillies 4.5 -160 1 1.6 Win 1 -1.29 6/30/2025 Team Total Under Diamondbacks 4.5 -195 1 1.95 Win 1 -0.29 6/30/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Red Sox -215 1 2.15 Win 1 0.71 6/30/2025 First 5 Innings Total Under Rays/A's 4.5 -145 1 1.45 Loss -1.45 -0.74 7/1/2025 Total Under Phillies/Padres 9 -158 1 1.58 Push 0 -0.74 7/1/2025 First 5 Team Total Under Cardinals 1.5 -166 1 1.66 Win 1 0.26 7/1/2025 Team Total Under Orioles 3.5 -145 1 1.45 Win 1 1.26 7/2/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Angels -110 1 1.1 Win 1 2.26 7/2/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Brewers -175 1 1.75 Loss -1.75 0.51 7/2/2025 Moneyline Rangers -135 1 1.35 Win 1 1.51 7/3/2025 Moneyline Giants -114 1 1.14 Win 1 2.51 7/4/2025 First 5 Innings Total Under Braves/Orioles 5.5 -180 1 1.8 Win 1 3.51 7/4/2025 Team Total Over Cubs 4.5 -140 1 1.4 Win 1 4.51 7/5/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Giants -200 1 2 Win 1 5.51 7/5/2025 Team Total Under Athletics 4.5 -190 1 1.9 Win 1 6.51 7/5/2025 First 5 Innings Total Under Astros/Dodgers 4.5 -125 1 1.25 Loss -1.25 5.26 7/6/2025 Total Over Rockies/White Sox 11 -110 1 1.1 Loss -1.1 4.16 7/6/2025 First 5 Innings Total Under Marlins/Brewers 4.5 -130 1 1.3 Win 1 5.16 7/7/2025 First 5 Innings Total Under Rangers/Angels 4.5 -188 1 1.88 Loss -1.88 3.28 7/10/2025 Moneyline Braves -182 1 1.82 Loss -1.82 1.46 7/10/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Mariners -160 1 1.6 Win 1 2.46 7/10/2025 First 5 Innings Moneyline Rays -115 1 1.15 Win 1 3.46
I'd look into how you're getting the bets graded, or just do them manually, it's only a few games a day. On a few days you did come back to recap your performance and you did correctly mention you had a 7 day win streak from 6/29 to 7/5.Leave a comment:
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7-11-2025
Tigers/Mariners F5 under 3.5 -130
Pirates/Twins F5 under 3.5 -140
Giants/Dodgers F5 under 4.5 -166
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7-10-2025
Braves ML -182
Seatte Mariners F5 ML -160
Rays F5 ML -115
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Are you using ChatGPT to grade the results for you? The results generally line up but it misclassified 5 bets in that table:
6/5 Giants ML Loss - Giants won
6/5 Pirates/Astros Under 7.5 - 10 runs
6/7 Astros/Guardians Under 7.5 - 8 runs, went over in extra innings
6/13 Royals ML Win, lost to Athletics
6/21 Angels/Astros F5 Under 4 - 8 runs first 5 inningsLeave a comment:
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Are you using ChatGPT to grade the results for you? The results generally line up but it misclassified 5 bets in that table:
6/5 Giants ML Loss - Giants won
6/5 Pirates/Astros Under 7.5 - 10 runs
6/7 Astros/Guardians Under 7.5 - 8 runs, went over in extra innings
6/13 Royals ML Win, lost to Athletics
6/21 Angels/Astros F5 Under 4 - 8 runs first 5 inningsLeave a comment:
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whatever you think is best Optional. I will defer to your good judgement. I guess Players Talk is fine.Last edited by HoleWrecker; 07-07-25, 03:34 PM.Leave a comment:
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This thread does not fit the Handicapper Think Tank. It's for discussion of methods not for posting picks.
Would you prefer it to be moved to the Baseball forum or Players Talk?Leave a comment:
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The table was +7.7 units. So a total + of 11.95 (not 11.25). Doing good, no bad days. But probability says
they will eventually happen, good model or otherwise. Black came up 26 times in a row at Monte Carlo, nothing wrong with the wheel.Leave a comment:
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That colorado game today had no business staying under 11. Im fucking fuming right now.
4 scoreless innings at Coors field and they collectively left 10 on base, GTFOLeave a comment:
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Dude what kind of math ananlysis is this? Whats the total for the WHOLE THREAD
Since 6-26???? why 6-26 i been posting for weeksLeave a comment:
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28 picks since 6/26: 18 wins (+18) 8 losses (-13.75) = +4.25
overall 7.7 + 4.25 = +11.25 on 66 picks = 17%
is this old fashioned data analysis or machine learning? how many games do you base the model on?Leave a comment:
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1-1 -0.10 units and this loser comes out of the bushes to point it out. Are you just trying to get under my skin, are you just naturally a POS, or what is wrong with you?Leave a comment:
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7-6-2025
Rockies/White Sox over 11 -110
Marlins/Brewrs F5 under 4.5 -130
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7-6-2025
Marlins/Brewrs F5 under 4.5 -130
Lets make it 8 straight winning days.Leave a comment:
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2-1 +0.75 units today
Thats 7 straight winning days and countingLeave a comment:
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7-5-2025
Giants F5 -200
Athletics team total under 4.5 -190
Astros/Dodgers F5 under 4.5 -125
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