Final Four Picks and Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 03-31-25, 03:02 PM

SBR's C Jackson Cowart gives his thoughts on each of the final four teams:

Duke (+105 Caesars)

"The Blue Devils entered the tournament with five of the best players in March Madness, and they've relied on that depth and star power en route to a seemingly inevitable Final Four run for our expert Rob Paul's predicted March Madness champion.

Jon Scheyer's group will face a tough opponent in the Final Four in Houston, which bludgeoned 2-seed Tennessee in the Elite Eight and boasts the best defensive efficiency in the country. Duke's offense is the top unit nationally, too, setting up a true clash of titans in Saturday's second matchup at 8:49 p.m. ET."

Florida (+300 DraftKings)

"The Gators were the hottest team in the country entering the NCAA Tournament, and they played with fire in the Elite Eight before erasing a late deficit to beat Texas Tech and set up this SEC showdown with Auburn in the Final Four on Saturday at 6:09 p.m. ET.

Florida won the only meeting between these two back in early February, a 90-81 road victory for the Gators, and the Tigers could be in worse shape this time around if Johni Broome isn't at full strength after his injury in the Elite Eight."

Houston (+450 bet365)

"It's a tough draw for Houston, which is the second-best team in the country per KenPom but enters the Final Four as the biggest long shot because of who's on the other side.

If anyone can try to contain Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel, Tyrese Proctor, and friends, it'd be Houston and its top-ranked defense in the country. The Cougars are also prolific from long range and haven't lost a game since Feb. 1 - this isn't your typical long shot."

Auburn (+525 BetMGM)

"Is Broome fully healthy heading into the title game? And if so, is that enough to change the outcome this time around against one of the only teams to beat Auburn in the regular season?

We've had our doubts about the Tigers all tournament long, but Bruce Pearl and Co. keep winning, so it's hard not to be enticed by these long odds on the field's No. 1 overall seed - especially if Broome, who finished with 25 points and 14 rebounds in the Elite Eight, is ready to roll by Saturday."

**SBR Andy** · 04-02-25, 09:25 AM

NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player predictions for each team from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Duke - Cooper Flagg (+120 FanDuel)

"Simply put, Flagg is phenomenal. It's no surprise to see the Wooden Award odds favorite and future No. 1 overall pick atop the oddsboard for this award. He's been the centerpiece during one of Duke's most successful seasons ever. If the Blue Devils manage to cap off a 35-3 campaign with a championship, it's hard to imagine anyone other than Flagg winning this award.

The freshman is averaging 19.5 points, 5.3 assists, 7.8 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks per game in the NCAA Tournament. Flagg has shown up when Duke has needed him most, and his odds at our best sports betting apps imply a 45.45% probability he will win the award."

Florida - Walter Clayton Jr. (+400 DraftKings)

"While other players have arguably been better overall than Clayton throughout March Madness, nobody has been more clutch down the stretch. The Florida sharpshooter has hit several memorable shots in the closing stages of games, notably against Connecticut and Texas Tech, when the Gators found themselves in need of a bucket.

Clayton is averaging over 22 points per game thus far. Seeing as Florida is the favorite to get past Auburn in the Final Four, there might not be a better value on the market than the senior. Clayton is trading as high as +400 (20% implied probability) at DraftKings, which means a $10 winning wager would profit $40."

Auburn - Johni Broome (+850 DraftKings)

"Broome has been locked into a battle for the Wooden Award with Flagg all season long. The two players have been neck-and-neck, so why isn't that the case here?

Only 11 Most Outstanding Player winners have come from teams that did not win a national championship, with the last being Akeem (Hakeem) Olajuwon in 1983. Auburn currently has the longest March Madness odds of the remaining four teams, which explains why Broome's odds aren't in line with some of his peers.

Nevertheless, the senior's odds are too inflated not to take a flier on. Broome has posted back-to-back 20-plus-point performances, and he scored 58 total points in regular-season showdowns with Duke, Florida, and Houston. If he keeps scoring at this clip, DraftKings' +850 odds could be a steal."

Houston - LJ Cryer (+1100 FanDuel)

"Cryer has been Houston's best player this season, and he's posted three solid showings in the NCAA Tournament. His odds are significantly longer than the above trio because he has undeniably the worst outing of the four players during March Madness.

The senior guard shot 2-for-13 (15.4%) from the field and finished with just five points in a Sweet 16 win over Purdue. While that poor performance put him behind other teams' superstars, he still has the shortest odds among the Cougars in this market.

If Houston can capture the first national championship in program history, Cryer has a better chance of winning the award than his 8.33% implied probability. A $10 winning wager on the Katy, Texas, native would return $110 in profits."

**dhristov211** · 04-02-25, 11:07 AM

Nice breakdowns. I like favs, Duke/Cooper

**SBR Andy** · 04-04-25, 08:43 AM

Final Four betting insights from BetMGM:

“Duke is the most bet team to cover in the Final Four and Florida is popular with the Johni Broome uncertainty. An underdog winning on Saturday would be great for the sportsbook.” – Seamus Magee, Trading Manager, BetMGM

Most popular bets (tickets)
1. Duke -5.5
2. Florida -2.5
3. Houston +225
4. Auburn +125
5. Duke-Houston over 136.5
6. Florida-Auburn under 159.5

Most popular bets (money)
1. Duke -5.5
2. Duke -275
3. Florida -2.5
4. Florida -150
5. Duke-Houston over 136.5
6. Florida-Auburn under 159.5

Most bet player props (tickets)
1. Tahaad Pettiford under 3.5 assists -135
2. Chad Baker-Mazara under points -105
3. Cooper Flagg over 19.5 points +105
4. Thomas Haugh under 6.5 rebounds +120
5. Johni Broome over 19.5 points -110

**johnnyvegas13** · 04-04-25, 09:53 AM

Broom over 20 looks good

**Mac4Lyfe** · 04-05-25, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by johnnyvegas13

Broom over 20 looks good

He scored 18 vs UF in February at home. I think the under is the safer play here. Florida has another big they can throw at Broome. So that’s 4 bigs to wear on him. Plus it’s a neutral site in an arena made for football not basketball. Depth perception will be a struggle. I think the under will hit for most props. BOL

**Mac4Lyfe** · 04-05-25, 09:17 AM

If the refs let Houston play physical, I think they have a good shot at winning. That’s a huge if. I think we’ll know in the first few minutes.

**SBR Andy** · 04-05-25, 10:11 AM

BetMGM College Basketball Insights: National Championship

Notable bets
• $500,000 on Duke +350 to win the National Championship
• $100,000 on Florida +900 to win the National Championship
• $50,000 on Houston +600 to win the National Championship

Line movement (Open to Now)
• Duke +1100 to -110
• Florida +4000 to +300
• Houston +1400 to +450
• Auburn +3000 to +575

Highest Ticket%
• Duke 14.2%
• Florida 9.3%
• Michigan State 8.5%

Highest Handle%
• Duke 39.6%
• Florida 11.7%
• Houston 10.5%

Biggest Liabilities
• Duke
• Michigan State
• St. John’s

BetMGM College Basketball Insights: Most Outstanding Player of the Tournament

Line movement (Open to Now)
• Cooper Flagg +300 to +105
• Walter Clayton +600 to +375
• Johni Broome +750 to +700

Highest Ticket%
• Cooper Flagg 41.6%
• Walter Clayton 8.3%
• Tyrese Proctor 6.8%

Highest Handle%
• Cooper Flagg 54.7%
• Walter Clayton 7.3%
• Thomas Haugh 8.4%

Biggest Liabilities
• Cooper Flagg
• Thomas Haugh
• Tyrese Proctor

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**SBR Andy** · 04-05-25, 10:29 AM

Final Four parlay picks from SBR's Brenden Schaeffer:

Pick #1: Florida -2.5 over Auburn

"The two best teams in the SEC meet in the Final Four for a right to play for a national championship. Florida beat Auburn in the previous matchup between these two teams, recording an impressive nine-point win on the road at Auburn back in February.

Though the Gators have endured more close shaves throughout their NCAA Tournament run, Florida has been the more consistent team over the past couple of months, losing just once after the first day of February.

Auburn stumbled down the stretch before locking back in during March Madness, but a return to SEC play could show Florida’s superiority. The Gators are a remarkable 27-11 against the spread this season, and they can cover a small spread at a neutral site after having Auburn’s number in its own gym the last time around."

Pick #2: Houston +5.5 over Duke

"We’re holding our breath a bit with this contrarian pick, as it seems the entire world is on Duke against the spread in this matchup. I just can’t get over the consistency of Houston’s competitiveness this season. The Cougars suffered only four losses all campaign, and none came by more than five points.

Houston’s defense is second to none in the nation. That's why I don’t see the Cougars rolling over, even against Duke’s explosive offense. Both Duke and Houston play at slow tempos, which will likely lead to slim margins down the stretch of this game between the two best teams in the country, according to KenPom.

This game should go down to the wire, so if you’re giving me 5.5 points with either side, that’s the side I’m rolling with in this matchup."

Pick #3: Florida-Auburn Over 159.5

"After Florida and Auburn combined for 171 total points in February, this rematch in the Alamodome only needs to reach 160 points to clear the total. With both teams ranking among the top 11 in the nation in scoring average, the combined average points per game are an eye-popping 168.6.

Both teams play an up-tempo style, with each ranking among the top three nationwide in adjusted offensive efficiency. That's why we can expect to see plenty of up-and-down play.

As long as shooters manage to master the dreaded sightlines that we often hear about in these dome environments, this should be the semifinal game in which the points flow freely.

Games involving Florida have gone 21-17 to the Over, with Auburn contests going 21-16 to the Over this season."

Best Odds: +601 at DraftKings

**Mac4Lyfe** · 04-05-25, 07:59 PM

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

He scored 18 vs UF in February at home. I think the under is the safer play here. Florida has another big they can throw at Broome. So that’s 4 bigs to wear on him. Plus it’s a neutral site in an arena made for football not basketball. Depth perception will be a struggle. I think the under will hit for most props. BOL

Broome wore out in that 2nd half. Gators bigs made him work all game. He only had 3 points in the 2nd half.

lets go Houston. Down the dookies.