I have an idea...need a statistician's input

[Machine Choice]

I have a goal to raise $3,500 to pay off a gambling debt. I have a starting bankroll of $620. Here is a simple plan that I think may allow me to reach my goal in less than 47 days without taking a huge risk.

1. Each day, I will place one standard sides wager (-110) to WIN $100. If it wins, I am done for the day.

2. If the wager loses, I will try to get the loss back on the same day by playing Roulette. I will place a $1 bet on red and keep playing (using the Martingale system) until I win $110 to recover my loss for the day. This equates to about 170 spins provided I don't bust first. Once I reach $110, I am done for the day and the cycle repeats on the next day.

Knowing that I need to win 35 bets to reach my goal of $3,500 and realizing that I will probably lose half of my sides bets (but hopefully I will hit better than 50%), this means I will have to play Roulette about 17 times.

Using the Martingale system in Roulette with a $1 wager, I can lose 9 spins in a row before my bankroll is completely gone. Also, the table limit is $500 per bet. The odds of losing 9 spins in a row betting on red in a double-zero roulette wheel is .11%. Of course it will eventually happen. But I am gambling that it will not happen to me BEFORE I play roughly 17 sessions at about 170 spins per session (to account for house adavange of 5.06%). If it doesn't, then it is a mathematical certainty that I will reach my goal of $3,500 within 47 days even if lose half of my $110 sports bets.

The question: what is the probability of losing 9 times in a row on red in American roulette BEFORE completing 2,890 spins?

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

Online roulette software will recognize this a u will lose. The chances are alot higher than u think

[Machine Choice]

Online roulette software will recognize this a u will lose. The chances are alot higher than u think

That's another question: how unbiased is online roulette at places like The Greek, Bookmaker and Bodog?

[1st and Ten]

Would be one hell of an emotional roller coaster. If youre 3500 in the hole then I suggest you just work a couple of extra hours to pay off your debt. The other posters comment about online casinos is 100 percent on.

[Wrecktangle]

If you can't manage your money, play the SBR book with your points. When you can win there, you might be ready to use real money.

[1st and Ten]

If you can't manage your money, play the SBR book with your points. When you can win there, you might be ready to use real money.

[Dunder]

Even if you played on a roulette wheel with no zeroes, the probability of going 2890 spins without a sequence of 9 blacks is less than 1 percent.
On a wheel with two zero´s you get down to just over a 0.01% chance of your plan working out.

There are some flaws in the calculations that allow you to reach the 2890 spin figure, but it doesn´t really matter, this is NOT a good idea.

[Chi_archie]

no please don't do this

[Doc JS]

chasing a losing wager by playing roulette...
I think I'm beginning to see how you got $3500 in debt!!!!

I'll give you a much better idea:
Until you become a winning bettor....stop gambling!

Merry Christmas!!!

Doc

[1st and Ten]

Doc JS= Straight Talk Express

[Karayilan9]

Scrap the Roulette idea immediately

[jellobiafra]

Unreal.

[durito]

awesome

[The Seer]

can't wait to see jj's comment here

[philswin]

Scrap Roulette - Never play an online casino - Also play at a reduced juice book or exchange

[20Four7]

awesome

I agree it sounds like a solid plan. Make sure you vary between red and black so the on line casino doesn't recognize your bet sequence. That'll keep them off your toes and make it almost a +EV game.

Good Luck

[1st and Ten]

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

1/ (2 to the 9th) x 2890 spins = 2.82 to 1.

so for each 2.8 times you lose, you'll hit it once.

or each 282 times your system loses, you would win 100 times.

or 38%, not very good, but not impossible.

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

it would actually be 1/ (2 to the 9th) x 2881 spins (2881 tries to start a losing 9-streak spin run).
which would still put you at 38%.
you actually have a 62% chance of NOT going on a 9 black spin streak.
but you have to factor that into your 50% chance of hitting a 189% return on a $100 sport bet (factoring in juice).
and your odd decrease since it's unlikely you will get up to your goal $3500, before you go broke.

You are actually better off just playing your roulette game, except live and online casinos would throw you out if they caught you winning at that system.

[Rich Boy]

The more -EV plays you make, the worse you will do.

Just go all in on a small +250 to +300 dog ML and hope to get lucky

[sharpcat]

martingale system is deadly with a negative EV bet like roulette! doubling down on a negative value bet does not make positive value!

[Dunder]

1/ (2 to the 9th) x 2890 spins = 2.82 to 1.

so for each 2.8 times you lose, you'll hit it once.

or each 282 times your system loses, you would win 100 times.

or 38%, not very good, but not impossible.

Want to think about that again?
Quite aside from the fact that it ain´t 50/50 each spin, your formula is flawed.

[MrX]

Want to think about that again?
Quite aside from the fact that it ain´t 50/50 each spin, your formula is flawed.

It's alright. He makes up for his flaws with his ability to do these calculations in his head in thirty seconds while surrounded by hairy degenerates.