Hey guys Bread here,
I wanted to tell you one of the key things I’ve learned in working with Sick Gambler over the past few years. Actually, I didn’t learn the concept from him. But his insistence on its importance above all other factors was an eye opener to me. And as usual, he’s been proven correct.
It’s the one factor that has proven to me to be the surest characteristic of a winning player. One who is really feared by the bookies as a tough competitor, and a guy who will prove to be truly difficult to beat.
An experienced bookie doesn’t fear guys on winning streaks. They really don’t. Whether the bookie is running a shop in a palatial sports book in Vegas, manning a phone in a basement in Chicago, or in front of a computer in the islands, he’s seen too many guys get on winning streaks only to have it end badly.
So he actually welcomes the guy on the streak. After all, he wants to be the guy who is there to profit from the correction that occurs at the end of a hot hand.
What a bookie really fears is a guy who consistently, over and over again, makes a bet at a number that is better than the closing number.
For instance, he bets a NFL favorite at -4, and the line closes -4½. He bets an NBA total under 189 and it closes 187. He bets a college football underdog at +8 and it closes at +7.
To do that over and over is the sign of a good player, someone who is very likely to win in the long run.
I had a guy approach me with some totals plays he said were really strong. And they looked good for a week or two, but I noticed that he was putting out a game at under 44 that would close 45, and his over 40½ play would be down to 39 at kickoff. And this was happening over and over. I wasn’t surprised that his winning streak proved to be a house of cards.
Now obviously every line move doesn’t win. And even top bettors see the market go the other way on some of their plays. But in today’s marketplace a lot of money has a lot of information and rationale behind it.
And the smartest bookies, the guys who really study their players and know what makes a hard-knocking competitor have seen the truth over and over again. They know that a guy who beats the closing line is the guy most likely to win going forward.
So keep an eye on your own play with this factor. If you string some losses together but your bets have line value against the closing number, you’re likely ripe for a turnaround. But if you’re on a winning streak and a lot of your bets could’ve been better ones if you waited until kickoff or tipoff, you probably don’t want to press your bets.
And if you find yourself on the wrong side of the marketplace over the long haul, you have a problem. And you probably want to reconsider your whole approach going forward. Because you’re really unlikely to win.
And that’s a truth I’ve seen over and over and over again.
Fezzik and I will be back overnight with some more information. As always, it will be designed to make you a feared player yourself. And turn you into a Lifetime Sports Winner.
All the best,
Sick Gambler
I wanted to tell you one of the key things I’ve learned in working with Sick Gambler over the past few years. Actually, I didn’t learn the concept from him. But his insistence on its importance above all other factors was an eye opener to me. And as usual, he’s been proven correct.
It’s the one factor that has proven to me to be the surest characteristic of a winning player. One who is really feared by the bookies as a tough competitor, and a guy who will prove to be truly difficult to beat.
An experienced bookie doesn’t fear guys on winning streaks. They really don’t. Whether the bookie is running a shop in a palatial sports book in Vegas, manning a phone in a basement in Chicago, or in front of a computer in the islands, he’s seen too many guys get on winning streaks only to have it end badly.
So he actually welcomes the guy on the streak. After all, he wants to be the guy who is there to profit from the correction that occurs at the end of a hot hand.
What a bookie really fears is a guy who consistently, over and over again, makes a bet at a number that is better than the closing number.
For instance, he bets a NFL favorite at -4, and the line closes -4½. He bets an NBA total under 189 and it closes 187. He bets a college football underdog at +8 and it closes at +7.
To do that over and over is the sign of a good player, someone who is very likely to win in the long run.
I had a guy approach me with some totals plays he said were really strong. And they looked good for a week or two, but I noticed that he was putting out a game at under 44 that would close 45, and his over 40½ play would be down to 39 at kickoff. And this was happening over and over. I wasn’t surprised that his winning streak proved to be a house of cards.
Now obviously every line move doesn’t win. And even top bettors see the market go the other way on some of their plays. But in today’s marketplace a lot of money has a lot of information and rationale behind it.
And the smartest bookies, the guys who really study their players and know what makes a hard-knocking competitor have seen the truth over and over again. They know that a guy who beats the closing line is the guy most likely to win going forward.
So keep an eye on your own play with this factor. If you string some losses together but your bets have line value against the closing number, you’re likely ripe for a turnaround. But if you’re on a winning streak and a lot of your bets could’ve been better ones if you waited until kickoff or tipoff, you probably don’t want to press your bets.
And if you find yourself on the wrong side of the marketplace over the long haul, you have a problem. And you probably want to reconsider your whole approach going forward. Because you’re really unlikely to win.
And that’s a truth I’ve seen over and over and over again.
Fezzik and I will be back overnight with some more information. As always, it will be designed to make you a feared player yourself. And turn you into a Lifetime Sports Winner.
All the best,
Sick Gambler
