1. #1
    Dollars2Donuts
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    D2D's NBA, NHL and MLB Daily wagers.......

    Ok Gents, it is a new day (finally) for D2D....it isn't my first day anymore, so it is time to move on.

    Turning a new page, means starting a new thread, ignoring trolls, posting fresh picks and frankly going forward with a new attitude. I welcome all trolls, all disbelievers and all donkeys to this thread. I can assure you that you will be wasting your time however, as regular followers of my wagers will not be responding to your meaningless posts and neither will I.

    For everyone to see I will be updating daily, posting regular screen shots and being honest (something that I have done from Day 1). I assure you that you will NEVER, and I mean NEVER be invited to another website, and I will NEVER be looking to make any $ off of anything.....so, for those of you that think there is only one reason that a thread like this happens, please take your theories elsewhere.

    After a few days away from posting I just realized that I missed it too much. All of the people that have been regular tailers and regular followers, you have my assurances that I will not let anyone bother me again....and please don't let them bother you....I could mention a number of you by handle, but there is no point, you all know who you are.

    I will be forwarding all past wagers and records into this thread, so it will be a continuation of our goal, to get to $30k in one year from the day I signed up. The goal here is to make $$$, so my record is not going to concern me....I will be playing a lot of MLB dogs and a lot of NHL regulation wins, so the $$$ should be better than my record anyway.

    Good luck everyone, POD today is Phillies and KC Royals OVER....now I paid a little juice and got it at 7.5 runs, but I think you can feel relatively safe at 8 runs as well....and so, it begins:

    172839769-1 4/5/13 2:22pm $240.00 $200.00 Pending 4/5/13 4:05pm MLB Baseball 929 Kansas City Royals/Philadelphia Phillies Over 7 -120* (W Davis - R must Start K Kendrick - R must Start)
    172839498-1 4/5/13 2:19pm $101.00 $100.00 Pending 4/5/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 501 Miami Heat -4 -101* vs Charlotte Bobcats
    172839498-2 4/5/13 2:19pm $107.00 $100.00 Pending 4/5/13 7:35pm Reduced Basketball 505 Milwaukee Bucks/New York Knicks Over 201 -107*
    172839498-3 4/5/13 2:19pm $107.00 $100.00 Pending 4/5/13 10:05pm Reduced Basketball 519 Dallas Mavericks +2 -107* vs Sacramento Kings
    172839339-1 4/5/13 2:17pm $104.00 $100.00 Pending 4/5/13 4:10pm MLB Baseball 901 San Diego Padres +1 -104* vs Colorado Rockies (J Marquis - R must Start J Francis - L must Start)
    172839339-2 4/5/13 2:17pm $100.00 $117.00 Pending 4/5/13 7:10pm MLB Baseball 907 Washington Nationals +117* vs Cincinnati Reds (D Haren - R must Start H Bailey - R must Start)
    172839339-3 4/5/13 2:17pm $115.00 $100.00 Pending 4/5/13 7:05pm MLB Baseball 922 Toronto Blue Jays -1 -115* vs Boston Red Sox (F Doubront - L must Start J Johnson - R must Start)
    172839339-4 4/5/13 2:17pm $60.00 $50.00 Pending 4/5/13 7:05pm MLB Baseball 922 Toronto Blue Jays Over 4 -120* vs Boston Red Sox (F Doubront - L must Start J Johnson - R must Start)
    172833495-1 4/5/13 1:27pm $100.00 $122.00 Pending 4/5/13 7:05pm NHL Hockey 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (1st 60 min) - +122* vs New York Rangers (1st 60 min)
    172833495-2 4/5/13 1:27pm $50.00 $87.00 Pending 4/5/13 7:05pm NHL Hockey 6 Buffalo Sabres (1st 60 min) - +174* vs Ottawa Senators (1st 60 min)
    172833495-3 4/5/13 1:27pm $50.00 $77.50 Pending 4/5/13 9:05pm NHL Hockey 7 Detroit Red Wings (1st 60 min) - +155* vs Colorado Avalanche (1st 60 min)
    172832304-1 4/5/13 1:16pm $103.00 $100.00 Pending 4/5/13 7:35pm Reduced Basketball 506 New York Knicks -7 -103* vs Milwaukee Bucks

    Points Awarded:

    Kris2014 gave Dollars2Donuts 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  2. #2
    skyline001
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    Good luck

  3. #3
    Bawth
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    Keep up the good work! ignore all the haters.

  4. #4
    Aussiefalconfan
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    Even tho im new here always loved your picks best of luck today!

  5. #5
    tto827
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    How about we get on the same side more often now that the old thread is gone.

  6. #6
    O's Avatar Become A Pro!
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    GL on the new thread!

  7. #7
    DiggityDaggityDo
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  8. #8
    Dollars2Donuts
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    Quote Originally Posted by tto827 View Post


    How about we get on the same side more often now that the old thread is gone.
    BUT I LIKE TO WIN SOMETIMES!!




    Lol....let's do that. Anything in particular you love today?

  9. #9
    AndrewMcCutchen
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    Tailing...good luck

  10. #10
    Smoke
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    Welcome to the forum!

  11. #11
    tto827
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dollars2Donuts View Post
    BUT I LIKE TO WIN SOMETIMES!!




    Lol....let's do that. Anything in particular you love today?

    Fade the cubs, bet the white sox everyday, but those are both very juicy so don't LOVE either today.

    Initial NBA leans were Memphis and Portland, Portland losing two in a row at home would be shocking, plus Houston can easily lose to anyone if they don't shoot it well.

    I thought Memphis would be a pk'em, honestly think the 2 points are to account for the fact that people don't think the NBA will let the Lakers lose, I don't buy it. Complete toss up I'll take the points.

  12. #12
    donkey_rollers
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    d2d do u have a twitter?would be good, example if u post plays here, then let evry1 know on twitter that plays posted or something like that.i like your picks, i just live in different timezone and sometimes cant get the plays at the right time.good luck with this thread, doing rly good

  13. #13
    Kpn
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    Love it, are you still making some picks ( Lakers, Ducks, SJ) or these your final locked in for the day?

  14. #14
    Dollars2Donuts
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    It is a beautiful, sunny day in SF, and methinks Zito gets lit up like a Christmas tree....Adding:

    172845655-1 4/5/13 3:20pm $100.00 $107.00 Pending 4/5/13 4:35pm MLB Baseball 903 St. Louis Cardinals +107* vs San Francisco Giants (J Westbrook - R must Start B Zito - L must Start)
    172845655-2 4/5/13 3:20pm $105.00 $100.00 Pending 4/5/13 4:35pm MLB Baseball 903 St. Louis Cardinals/San Francisco Giants Over 7 -105* (J Westbrook - R must Start B Zito - L must Start)

  15. #15
    Dollars2Donuts
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kpn View Post
    Love it, are you still making some picks ( Lakers, Ducks, SJ) or these your final locked in for the day?
    Don't like either NHL game, way too much juice....and memphis is one of the very few opponents that I don't want to bet against the Lakers. IMO the Lakers could win by 20, it could go to OT and the Grizz could win by 20....same for the O/U, it depends how they want to play it....their styles opppose one another and if Memphis comes out shooting there could be 225 points and if they come to play D it could go under 175.....

    STAY AWAY


  16. #16
    Kpn
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dollars2Donuts View Post
    Don't like either NHL game, way too much juice....and memphis is one of the very few opponents that I don't want to bet against the Lakers. IMO the Lakers could win by 20, it could go to OT and the Grizz could win by 20....same for the O/U, it depends how they want to play it....their styles opppose one another and if Memphis comes out shooting there could be 225 points and if they come to play D it could go under 175.....

    STAY AWAY

    Roger that! I grabbed a parlay of Ducks + SJ to win in regulation +200.

  17. #17
    frostie
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    glad your back D2D, just wondering why you like the over in the knicks game, i was personally thinking about teasing it up and taking the under along with the knicks -3... any thoughts?

  18. #18
    tto827
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    Quote Originally Posted by frostie View Post
    glad your back D2D, just wondering why you like the over in the knicks game, i was personally thinking about teasing it up and taking the under along with the knicks -3... any thoughts?
    Teasing NBA totals is about the most consistently -EV thing you can do. Buying a half point on a total is not worth anywhere near the 8-10 cents you are paying for it, just FYI, not trying to be rude.

  19. #19
    frostie
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    Quote Originally Posted by tto827 View Post
    Teasing NBA totals is about the most consistently -EV thing you can do. Buying a half point on a total is not worth anywhere near the 8-10 cents you are paying for it, just FYI, not trying to be rude.
    i would be teasing it from 201.5 to 206 and going under thats not .5 point,,,, im confused.

  20. #20
    tto827
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    A two team parlay of -280 lines pays out just better than -120.

    A two team parlay of -260 lines pays out right around -110.

    In either scenario, you are selling 9 half points.

    Scenario 1 you are moving the line -170 for a cost of 18.9 cents per half point.

    Scenario 2 you are moving the line -150, for a cost of 16.7 cents per half point.

    Every book will let you buy .5 point for 10 cents (which means that's usually a -EV move) and now you are paying 16-18 cents for them.

    This doesn't even account for the fact that we are moving an NBA total, which if you check out SBR's half point calculator should show that the half point at a total of 200 is worth a lot less than a .5 point on a short spread.

    Hope that clears it up a bit.

  21. #21
    frostie
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    Quote Originally Posted by tto827 View Post
    A two team parlay of -280 lines pays out just better than -120.

    A two team parlay of -260 lines pays out right around -110.

    In either scenario, you are selling 9 half points.

    Scenario 1 you are moving the line -170 for a cost of 18.9 cents per half point.

    Scenario 2 you are moving the line -150, for a cost of 16.7 cents per half point.

    Every book will let you buy .5 point for 10 cents (which means that's usually a -EV move) and now you are paying 16-18 cents for them.

    This doesn't even account for the fact that we are moving an NBA total, which if you check out SBR's half point calculator should show that the half point at a total of 200 is worth a lot less than a .5 point on a short spread.

    Hope that clears it up a bit.
    must be too much of a noob haha i guess i see what your saying if im doing a 4.5 pt teaser im getting a lot more value using the 4.5 on the spread and not the total because 4.5 points out of 200 is nothing but out of 7.5 witch is the line in the knicks game 4.5 pts makes a huge difference

  22. #22
    tto827
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    Quote Originally Posted by frostie View Post
    must be too much of a noob haha i guess i see what your saying if im doing a 4.5 pt teaser im getting a lot more value using the 4.5 on the spread and not the total because 4.5 points out of 200 is nothing but out of 7.5 witch is the line in the knicks game 4.5 pts makes a huge difference
    Yup, that is the case, and that's the point that I did not express mathematically. But also just how bad NBA teasers can be in general, and how much of an edge you'd need to find an actual +EV opportunity.

  23. #23
    RumTum
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    Thanks for the picks D2D. Much appreciated.

  24. #24
    MonkeyMoney
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    haters are just unrealized potential... and their opinions are like assholes, every one's got them


    lets work together in the name of making money!!

  25. #25
    Dollars2Donuts
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    TTO is completely correct here. A point on a total from a teaser is worth half as much when betting these teams ATS. IN other words a teased over/under is a sucker bet.....leave teasers for 2-4 games where you LOVE them ATS and take the added 4-6 points.....

    Thanks for all of the love folks.....glad I decided to stick.


    D2D

  26. #26
    Dollars2Donuts
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    Also POD is already in as a winner....too bad the other games are not looking as favourable! Let's rally the Cards!! 10 runs in the top of the 8th!!

  27. #27
    Dollars2Donuts
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    Quote Originally Posted by frostie View Post
    glad your back D2D, just wondering why you like the over in the knicks game, i was personally thinking about teasing it up and taking the under along with the knicks -3... any thoughts?
    I love the over here.....first off the public is on the under (lol), and while that means next to nothing for me, here is my reasoning:

    The Bucks are SUPPOSED to lose this game. They have been under tremendous pressure to end this bad run they are on.....they WON'T, but they will play loose (their natural game) because they will not feel the same pressure.

    My prediction is BUCKS up early, by maybe as much as 12-15 points before the Knicks start jacking up the ball. Carmelo goes for 45, Knicks win in the end because the Bucks do not know how to play any defense at all. JR Smith probably puts up 25-27 as well.....that guy drives me nuts, but tonight I want him to make everything.

    Prediction:

    Knicks 108 - Bucks 105

  28. #28
    fitguy67
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    may this second "day" be as profitable as the 1st just concluded...


  29. #29
    Dollars2Donuts
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    Adding:

    172880021-1 4/5/13 6:48pm $100.00 $105.00 Pending 4/5/13 7:10pm Reduced Baseball 905 Miami Marlins/New York Mets Over 7 +105* (A Sanabia - R must Start J Hefner - R must Start)

  30. #30
    Dollars2Donuts
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    Adding:

    172880882-1 4/5/13 6:51pm $100.00 $123.00 Pending 4/5/13 10:10pm MLB Baseball 913 Pittsburgh Pirates +1 +123* vs Los Angeles Dodgers (J Sanchez - L must Start Z Greinke - R must Start)
    172880882-2 4/5/13 6:51pm $100.00 $135.00 Pending 4/5/13 7:05pm MLB Baseball 922 Toronto Blue Jays -1 +135* vs Boston Red Sox (F Doubront - L must Start J Johnson - R must Start)

  31. #31
    Dollars2Donuts
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    Adding:

    172881830-1 4/5/13 6:55pm $162.00 $120.00 Pending 4/5/13 7:05pm NHL Hockey 4 Pittsburgh Penguins -135* vs New York Rangers

  32. #32
    Coreos
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    Glad to see you're sticking it out - keep it classy bro.

  33. #33
    Dollars2Donuts
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    Adding a 2nd POD for today....this line has slid all day.......and I love it. GL everyone:

    172896991-1 4/5/13 7:33pm $465.00 $300.00 Pending 4/5/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 501 Miami Heat -155* vs Charlotte Bobcats

  34. #34
    2178ice
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    Glad to see your back D2D! Best of luck I will be tailing all your picks like Normal. GL

  35. #35
    Dollars2Donuts
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dollars2Donuts View Post
    Adding a 2nd POD for today....this line has slid all day.......and I love it. GL everyone:

    172896991-1 4/5/13 7:33pm $465.00 $300.00 Pending 4/5/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 501 Miami Heat -155* vs Charlotte Bobcats
    By no means is this a lock, but hell, Charlotte is one of the worst teams in the NBA in the last 10 years AND the HEAT know how to win. The 'stifling defense' shown by Charlotte against the 76ers in their last win was nothing more than the 76ers shooting like crap....guys like Mike Miller and Rashard Lewis are going to want to SHINE so that they will be considered for more time in the playoffs....Bosh wants to prove he isn't a poor man's Kevin Garnett and Udonis Haslem will play his heart out....

    IMO this is an easy play, and all of the money is flowing onto Charlotte.....which....shocks me.

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