I've stated I'm new to sports betting, and I thought I'd share what I've learned in the month or so since I started this hobby.
1. My first ever bet was Indy -16 over the Texans. I thought this was a sure thing and that Indy would win by three touchdowns. The score was tied at the half and Indy finally broke through later in the 3rd quarter to win the game by 18 and cover the spread. Even though I won that bet I learned that there are no sure things in sports betting.
2. The people who make the lines at the sportsbooks know what they are doing. At first I believed I knew better because I felt my predictions of the outcomes would be more accurate. That was a stupid rookie mistake. These guys are a lot sharper than me and I realize that now. Their lines are right more than they are wrong.
3. Betting is a crapshoot, but you can improve your chances of winning (or losing less) by being smart with your bets. If I'm not comfortable with a pick I won't make it, regardless of how many people are dropping dimes on it. I've already seen a majority of posters in this forum who are picking team X because it's viewed as a sound bet. But team X either loses or doesn't get in under the spread. The opinions of sharp bettors are worth considering, but following the crowd doesn't guarantee winning.
4. Financial responsibility is essential if you want to be able to wager for the long-term. I have my entire bankroll riding this week, but if I lose it then that's okay with me. This is only a hobby I began on a whim. I never intended to do it for profit. Still, if I can somehow manage a 50% profit over my original starting bankroll (that's the magical line I set for myself) I will be discipline myself to bet not more than 1/2 of the total in any given week. I also know that dropping a single large bet on a longshot is not smart. I have a ML bet on Arizona to beat the Lions (Detroit is favored and at home), but it's only 1 unit and not a 3-4 unit "sucker bet". If that bet wins then I can smile and be thankful for the luck; if it loses then I'm not out more than I was willing to lose with it.
5. Until such time as I am confident in my betting I will avoid parlays and teasers. While I understand how they work, I see them as a road to financial disaster at this point. Sure, they pay out much bigger, but until I have more experience at this I'm staying away from them because I feel they are a more advanced bet to make, versus straight bets. Also, because I don't follow the NBA or NHL I'm not betting on those sports. Maybe I will someday, but not now.
6. Proposition bets are foolhardy. I don't mean that to insult anyone who plays them, but these seem to be so much more open to chance than betting winners and point spreads. Even or odd jersey number scores the first TD is as open to chance as a game of Bingo. At least in betting winners and spreads I can cite some data to support why I bet as I did (usually). Props are pure speculation.
7. Gambling is an entity full of slimy scumbags. I already knew that before I began wagering, but it's been enforced since then. Touts, bad sportsbooks, bettors of questionable character in forums...you can find the dregs of society in the gambling community. Listen to people who have shown themselves to be credible but don't follow any one person or crowd.
8. I don't know as much about this as I thought I did, and I probably never will know as much as I thought I would. At the end of the day betting is still mostly a game of chance. I can decrease my odds of losing (or increase odds of winning...take your pick) but ultimately it's out of my control and on any given Sunday, any given team can win (or fail to cover the spread).
1. My first ever bet was Indy -16 over the Texans. I thought this was a sure thing and that Indy would win by three touchdowns. The score was tied at the half and Indy finally broke through later in the 3rd quarter to win the game by 18 and cover the spread. Even though I won that bet I learned that there are no sure things in sports betting.
2. The people who make the lines at the sportsbooks know what they are doing. At first I believed I knew better because I felt my predictions of the outcomes would be more accurate. That was a stupid rookie mistake. These guys are a lot sharper than me and I realize that now. Their lines are right more than they are wrong.
3. Betting is a crapshoot, but you can improve your chances of winning (or losing less) by being smart with your bets. If I'm not comfortable with a pick I won't make it, regardless of how many people are dropping dimes on it. I've already seen a majority of posters in this forum who are picking team X because it's viewed as a sound bet. But team X either loses or doesn't get in under the spread. The opinions of sharp bettors are worth considering, but following the crowd doesn't guarantee winning.
4. Financial responsibility is essential if you want to be able to wager for the long-term. I have my entire bankroll riding this week, but if I lose it then that's okay with me. This is only a hobby I began on a whim. I never intended to do it for profit. Still, if I can somehow manage a 50% profit over my original starting bankroll (that's the magical line I set for myself) I will be discipline myself to bet not more than 1/2 of the total in any given week. I also know that dropping a single large bet on a longshot is not smart. I have a ML bet on Arizona to beat the Lions (Detroit is favored and at home), but it's only 1 unit and not a 3-4 unit "sucker bet". If that bet wins then I can smile and be thankful for the luck; if it loses then I'm not out more than I was willing to lose with it.
5. Until such time as I am confident in my betting I will avoid parlays and teasers. While I understand how they work, I see them as a road to financial disaster at this point. Sure, they pay out much bigger, but until I have more experience at this I'm staying away from them because I feel they are a more advanced bet to make, versus straight bets. Also, because I don't follow the NBA or NHL I'm not betting on those sports. Maybe I will someday, but not now.
6. Proposition bets are foolhardy. I don't mean that to insult anyone who plays them, but these seem to be so much more open to chance than betting winners and point spreads. Even or odd jersey number scores the first TD is as open to chance as a game of Bingo. At least in betting winners and spreads I can cite some data to support why I bet as I did (usually). Props are pure speculation.
7. Gambling is an entity full of slimy scumbags. I already knew that before I began wagering, but it's been enforced since then. Touts, bad sportsbooks, bettors of questionable character in forums...you can find the dregs of society in the gambling community. Listen to people who have shown themselves to be credible but don't follow any one person or crowd.
8. I don't know as much about this as I thought I did, and I probably never will know as much as I thought I would. At the end of the day betting is still mostly a game of chance. I can decrease my odds of losing (or increase odds of winning...take your pick) but ultimately it's out of my control and on any given Sunday, any given team can win (or fail to cover the spread).
