2020 Election. The State by State Odds and MATH

[ace7550]

I gotta tell you John, you say you're not a liberal but you could of fooled me. I see you rip on Trump a lot which is fine, but I don't ever see you rip on Dems. If you're not a lib then what's the deal?

[carolinakid]

Thank you,


Donald J. Trump
President of the United States

[rkelly110]

I gotta tell you John, you say you're not a liberal but you could of fooled me. I see you rip on Trump a lot which is fine, but I don't ever see you rip on Dems. If you're not a lib then what's the deal?

I see you need educated on the subject. You can be a moderate Dem and not be a bleeding heart liberal. You saying that is like calling you a kkk member, but typical of you guys lumping everyone into the same group.

[Mike Huntertz]

I gotta tell you John, you say you're not a liberal but you could of fooled me. I see you rip on Trump a lot which is fine, but I don't ever see you rip on Dems. If you're not a lib then what's the deal?

FWIW: The last few months Trump has been a pretty big target. Some of the many sound bytes make him look very foolish.
Kind of like low hanging fruit...............

[ace7550]

Cool. Just asking...
Both parties are so easy to make fun of. I just assume when I see someone only making fun of Trump that they are pretty far left.
But you are right. Not all dems are libtards.

[JohnGalt2341]

I gotta tell you John, you say you're not a liberal but you could of fooled me. I see you rip on Trump a lot which is fine, but I don't ever see you rip on Dems. If you're not a lib then what's the deal?

Fair enough. Here's a video I posted just yesterday in another thread. Watch the video. I think you'll like it.

Now ask yourself... do you think this is the type of video that a liberal would post on SBR?

Keep in mind... I posted this YESTERDAY... I had no idea that you were going to post what you did.

[ace7550]

Fair enough. Here's a video I posted just yesterday in another thread. Watch the video. I think you'll like it.

Now ask yourself... do you think this is the type of video that a liberal would post on SBR?

Keep in mind... I posted this YESTERDAY... I had no idea that you were going to post what you did.

Good video. BLM is BS.
Wasn't trying to accuse you of anything. Just didn't understand.

[RudyRuetigger]

Cool. Just asking...
Both parties are so easy to make fun of. I just assume when I see someone only making fun of Trump that they are pretty far left.
But you are right. Not all dems are libtards.

Galt is a libtard

Though, I like to call them CLOWN SHOWS

He will tell you he voted for fukkin Ross Perot or some bullshit like that, to make you think he gives a flying fukk


Galt is as dumb as d2bets and viretard

[RudyRuetigger]

Good video. BLM is BS.
Wasn't trying to accuse you of anything. Just didn't understand.

you really suck up when confronted

[ace7550]

you really suck up when confronted

Just tryin to understand where the guy is coming from. I'm here to learn and discuss these topics. Not to be confrontational. If he says he's a dem but not a libtard I'll take him at his word.
I don't think a libtard would post that video...

[JohnGalt2341]

Just tryin to understand where the guy is coming from. I'm here to learn and discuss these topics. Not to be confrontational. If he says he's a dem but not a libtard I'll take him at his word.
I don't think a libtard would post that video...

Rudy demands that people be in certain tribes. His tribal brain demands it! Any discussion that you are trying to have he will always kick your ass by calling you a libtard as seen in post #148. He's undefeated because of this. It's always the same thing... He calls you a libtard or something similar and he declares victory!!! Hooray for Rudy!!!

His latest is calling me a college professor. Whatever floats your boat. Just create something out of the blue, repeat it a few times and then pretend that it is now reality. Nice work!

Notice how Rudy never responds to the actual discussion. He will respond to this with some brilliant insult which will almost certainly involve the tribe he wants me to belong to and possibly something about a college professor. Victory again for Rudy! Bravo!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Galt/Ace:

*What do u rate the current TRUE odds to be...Biden vs Trump?

[JohnGalt2341]

Galt/Ace:

*What do u rate the current TRUE odds to be...Biden vs Trump?

Well... the No Juice line is roughly +/-158. That puts Trump at roughly 39%. I think that might be underestimating Trump a bit. But I've done the math on this and Trump is going to need some pretty big upsets in quite a few states to pull this off.

I think this is really a different animal than 2016. I'm willing to concede that Trump will pull a few upsets but I don't think he will win both Pennsylvania+245 and Florida+120 and without those 2 he's going to have a tough time. I would give Trump about a 45% chance of pulling this election off but that might be too high. I think Trump will get many of the same votes he got last time but I think the difference here is there is going to be a far bigger Dem turnout than 2016.

Covid-19 is killing Trump's election chances. This is his big chance to play quarterback and he's getting destroyed. He's not even getting rid of the ball, he's just getting sacked. And his opponents are terrible! But he is worse! He doesn't know what to do besides keep reminding us how he ran for that 1st down in the first quarter. Can you imagine Trump's speech at half-time if he were QB in the Super Bowl?

Trump: "Many people were saying... don't run for that first down. None of them wanted me to run for that first down... but I did... and thanks to me we scored all those points."

Reporter: "But you're down 98-3"

Trump : "That's a nasty question! You're a 3rd rate reporter. It's no wonder your ratings are so low. Are you ready? Are you ready? Nobody's been able to do what I've down. Nobody can believe it. I ran for that first down and nobody wanted me to run for it. They were all telling me... you won't make it. Let me tell you something... had I not ran for that first down the score be in the thousands by now!"

[mjsuax13]

Cool. Just asking...
Both parties are so easy to make fun of. I just assume when I see someone only making fun of Trump that they are pretty far left.
But you are right. Not all dems are libtards.

Dude- it’s just so easy to make fun of every politician top to bottom today. They are all pandering to the lowest common denominators on the far ends. It’s shameful. If you have an opinion for or against you are Trumptard or Libtard.

[mjsuax13]

Rudy demands that people be in certain tribes. His tribal brain demands it! Any discussion that you are trying to have he will always kick your ass by calling you a libtard as seen in post #148. He's undefeated because of this. It's always the same thing... He calls you a libtard or something similar and he declares victory!!! Hooray for Rudy!!!

His latest is calling me a college professor. Whatever floats your boat. Just create something out of the blue, repeat it a few times and then pretend that it is now reality. Nice work!

Notice how Rudy never responds to the actual discussion. He will respond to this with some brilliant insult which will almost certainly involve the tribe he wants me to belong to and possibly something about a college professor. Victory again for Rudy! Bravo!

BINGO. Wrong Side Rudy is the resident shine box boy.

[ace7550]

Galt/Ace:

*What do u rate the current TRUE odds to be...Biden vs Trump?

If you put a gun to my head and made me pick one right now I would pick Trump, but either one could easily win. Galt's assessment of Trump having a 45% chance is fair too. I think Trump at +150 has good value.
If debates happen that could move things a lot in either direction.

[carolinakid]

******,

Where have you been?

President Trump is heading to Texas on July 29th for a special event and he wants YOU right there with him as his special VIP guest.

He knows you’re one of his most loyal allies, which is why he wants to use this time to discuss a few key campaign strategies with you.

[carolinakid]

you can tell it getting close to election time, i will be happy when it over with ^^^^^

[Tanko]

******,

Where have you been?

President Trump is heading to Texas on July 29th for a special event and he wants YOU right there with him as his special VIP guest.

He knows you’re one of his most loyal allies, which is why he wants to use this time to discuss a few key campaign strategies with you.

I agree. This s#!t is ridiculous.
I must get a dozen emails a day from Trump, Trump campaign, Ivanka, Jr, Eric, etc.... Should have never have put my name on a Trump campaign mailing list. I've gotten so fed up that I put a filter on my email so that anything that has "Trump" in the subject line is auto-dumped into a "Trump Trash" folder.

And the damn political phone calls. At least 3-4 a day, everyday asking if you will support XYZ candidate.

We still have 4 months of this BS.

[Mike Huntertz]

you are a little bitch

thats the fact

Oh oh, he's pulling out his high IQ sh!t now!

[rkelly110]

I agree. This s#!t is ridiculous.
I must get a dozen emails a day from Trump, Trump campaign, Ivanka, Jr, Eric, etc.... Should have never have put my name on a Trump campaign mailing list. I've gotten so fed up that I put a filter on my email so that anything that has "Trump" in the subject line is auto-dumped into a "Trump Trash" folder.

And the damn political phone calls. At least 3-4 a day, everyday asking if you will support XYZ candidate.

We still have 4 months of this BS.

Glad you learned a valuable lesson. The same can be said of signing up for a new car in the mall. They will not stop calling you and harassing you via email/ text.

[DwightShrute]

Well... the No Juice line is roughly +/-158. That puts Trump at roughly 39%. I think that might be underestimating Trump a bit. But I've done the math on this and Trump is going to need some pretty big upsets in quite a few states to pull this off.

I think this is really a different animal than 2016. I'm willing to concede that Trump will pull a few upsets but I don't think he will win both Pennsylvania+245 and Florida+120 and without those 2 he's going to have a tough time. I would give Trump about a 45% chance of pulling this election off but that might be too high. I think Trump will get many of the same votes he got last time but I think the difference here is there is going to be a far bigger Dem turnout than 2016.

Covid-19 is killing Trump's election chances. This is his big chance to play quarterback and he's getting destroyed. He's not even getting rid of the ball, he's just getting sacked. And his opponents are terrible! But he is worse! He doesn't know what to do besides keep reminding us how he ran for that 1st down in the first quarter. Can you imagine Trump's speech at half-time if he were QB in the Super Bowl?

Trump: "Many people were saying... don't run for that first down. None of them wanted me to run for that first down... but I did... and thanks to me we scored all those points."

Reporter: "But you're down 98-3"

Trump : "That's a nasty question! You're a 3rd rate reporter. It's no wonder your ratings are so low. Are you ready? Are you ready? Nobody's been able to do what I've down. Nobody can believe it. I ran for that first down and nobody wanted me to run for it. They were all telling me... you won't make it. Let me tell you something... had I not ran for that first down the score be in the thousands by now!"

You remind me of the drunk guy sitting alone in the outfield bleachers smoking Marlboro reds and drinking beers from a cooler during a single A baseball game of which you went to high school of one of the teams playing but you never actually played baseball and your team is up 20 runs in the 7th and you are telling them how to play the game and how the outfielders are playing too deep blah blah blah and the players /remaining fans are yelling at you to shut the fukk up!

[vitterd]

Dwight is so stupid.

Rasmussen has biden by 4 in Ohio and 5 in pa. He’s a friendly trump pollster. This thing is getting ugly.

No wonder he pulled a 180 on masks yesterday and Twitter is calm. He’s gonna try to be normal the next few Months. He knows the Dwight idiots will vote for him no matter what, now he’s desperate to get run away republicans and independents who have jumped ship.

[JohnGalt2341]

You remind me of the drunk guy sitting alone in the outfield bleachers smoking Marlboro reds and drinking beers from a cooler during a single A baseball game of which you went to high school of one of the teams playing but you never actually played baseball and your team is up 20 runs in the 7th and you are telling them how to play the game and how the outfielders are playing too deep blah blah blah and the players /remaining fans are yelling at you to shut the fukk up!

Good effort Dwight. When you've got nothing, just make shit up out of the blue. It works for Trump. Rudy does the same thing every time I make him look foolish. Except in Rudy's fantasy... I'm a college professor.


I can at least understand Rudy's logic... I know why he thinks that about me. That's fine, I don't care.. But you.... you are WAY WAY OFF. I mean... there's not a single thing in your post that is even REMOTELY true.

You make posts like this all the time, and not just with me. You do it with everyone that calls out your nonsense. It's always some sort of oddly specific fantasy that you don't have 1 shred of evidence for. But you pretend that it is the new reality.


Do you know what gaslighting means yet?

[Itsamazing777]

Trump sweeps the Midwest again
Michigan and Pennsylvania for sure

[vitterd]

Good effort Dwight. When you've got nothing, just make shit up out of the blue. It works for Trump. Rudy does the same thing every time I make him look foolish. Except in Rudy's fantasy... I'm a college professor.


I can at least understand Rudy's logic... I know why he thinks that about me. That's fine, I don't care.. But you.... you are WAY WAY OFF. I mean... there's not a single thing in your post that is even REMOTELY true.

You make posts like this all the time, and not just with me. You do it with everyone that calls out your nonsense. It's always some sort of oddly specific fantasy that you don't have 1 shred of evidence for. But you pretend that it is the new reality.


Do you know what gaslighting means yet?

Dwight, Rudy, Itamazing. These are full blown idiots. The lowest IQ people in the world.

Did you see the new Rasmussen poll has Biden +4 in Ohio? I known Biden is gonna win but this is shaping up to be a bloodbath. What’s the latest Ohio odds you see? I know pa and mich are so heavy Biden that you can’t bet it.

[JohnGalt2341]

Trump sweeps the Midwest again
Michigan and Pennsylvania for sure

I'll give you even odds(+100) for any of the following states.

Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Let me know which ones you want to bet on.

[vitterd]

I'll give you even odds(+100) for any of the following states.

Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Let me know which ones you want to bet on.

He doesn’t have a dime to his name and has changed names at many sites. I wouldn’t bet with him actual money.

[DwightShrute]

Good effort Dwight. When you've got nothing, just make shit up out of the blue. It works for Trump. Rudy does the same thing every time I make him look foolish. Except in Rudy's fantasy... I'm a college professor.


I can at least understand Rudy's logic... I know why he thinks that about me. That's fine, I don't care.. But you.... you are WAY WAY OFF. I mean... there's not a single thing in your post that is even REMOTELY true.

You make posts like this all the time, and not just with me. You do it with everyone that calls out your nonsense. It's always some sort of oddly specific fantasy that you don't have 1 shred of evidence for. But you pretend that it is the new reality.


Do you know what gaslighting means yet?

Gaslight Galt, do you seriously not see the irony? Seriously? How could you not with all those games of intelligence you engage in?

Your new motto should be "When you've got nothing, just make shit up out of the blue".

[JohnGalt2341]

UPDATE: 100 days until the election

I counted the delegates for the states that are -350 or higher for the favorite and I added them up. This is what I came up with. You can look at the map I attached and make your own map if you wish if you feel that I am wrong.

Number of delegates Trump has for states he is favored with odds of -350 or higher: 126

Number of delegates Dem's have for states they are favored with odds of -350 or higher: 245

Below are the 10 remaining states that are the closest with price and delegates.

Trump's favored:
1. Georgia -150 16
2. Iowa -170 6
3. North Carolina -135 15
4. Ohio -170 18
5. Texas -250 38

Dems favored:
1. Arizona -165 11
2. Florida -160 29
3. New Hampshire -320 4
4. Pennsylvania -290 20
5. Wisconsin -260 10

Of the 167 remaining delegates of the 10 closest contested states Trump needs 144 delegates to win. Dems need 25. One of 2 things is possible here... either the books are WAY WAY off or Trump needs a miracle.

Here's the map as I see it:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2020-Electoral-Interactive-Map?mapId=MjAyMDA0MTAyNjEwMTU5NTc4MTIzNTE0NjIwCUKSBBgGSUiSSUKQRBCCSRCSQUgmCQ

Feel free to make your own

[RudyRuetigger]

hey galt

who are you voting for?

[JohnGalt2341]

hey galt

who are you voting for?

Well... all I can tell you for sure is that I won't be voting for either Trump or Biden.

[RudyRuetigger]

Well... all I can tell you for sure is that I won't be voting for either Trump or Biden.

what state are you in?

THANKS

[JohnGalt2341]

what state are you in?

THANKS

I'm in a state where my vote will likely not matter.

What county in GA do you live in?

[RudyRuetigger]

I'm in a state where my vote will likely not matter.

What county in GA do you live in?

I meant your mental state

But ok