So you think winning long term is impossible?

[Alfa1234]

West Ham VS Macclesfield O9.5 corners at 1.85

[Alfa1234]

Arsenal Kiev VS Dynamo Kiev 1x at 7.9

[Alfa1234]

I am sorry I was not giving exact numbers what I was saying is
if someone has 1000 games recorded even with a 2% edge they have a 60% chance of actually winning that 1000 game session.

here is ten 3650 roll sims with a 2% edge assume that is ten years

1838
1836
1898
1845
1924
1853
1939
1949
1878
you can see very quickly from this example that you will have a rough time paying the bills consistently with a 2% edge and a 2% edge is tough to have really long term.
19059
18962
19091
19058
and on and on you can see the way more stable system with 100 bets a day compared to 10. having 10 2% edge bets a day does not guarantee success, having 100 2% edge bets a day surely is not guaranteed but is as close as you can get to guaranteed and if you could do 200 a day or 300 a day it only becomes more secure. you can talk about deviations and fancy math with curves and spinning wheels but reality is about winning. to win you need an edge and you need a huge sample size and 10 games a day wont do it.

to me it works like this
10 games a day with 2% edge might win
100 games a day with 2% edge should win
200 games a day with 2% edge will win
I am not very good at math and I really dont get into SDs and other advanced math models just because of my super low IQ. but I can plainly see with these hands on experiments what i said above.

I respect you and think you have done a damn good job, I would say over time you will win and you will lose but if you dont increase your sample size it could be 3 or 4 years until you can kinda make sure you are getting fruit. if winning long term is possible is the question, the answer is for sure yes of course but winning long term reliably is the magic formula we are looking for and that comes with tons of bets and an edge, no other way.

I also agree with the small markets are not efficient and any game can have a moment of "value" because of a line shift or a stale line or whatever but in general the betting markets are efficient and that requires again a huge sample size and an edge.

No casino could afford a roulette table with high limits if they do not have 1000s of rolls a day, the game must be popular to get the sample size up so they avoid the variance bug.

You are more correct if you base your calculations on a 2% edge, but not really. With a 2% edge you need to win a little over 49% of your bets to make a profit. The standard deviation after 1k bets does not change. I still win between 469 and 531 bets 95% of the time (that is with a huge number of "1000x rolls as you'd state it". I'd need to win about 490 to make a profit. That still means, with only 1k bets (and I do about 3k/year) that I have about an 80% probability of profit after 3.5 months (1k bets). That number goes way up to over 90% after a year with 3k+ bets. You are off somewhere.

[Alfa1234]

Chernomorets VS Spartak Moscow 1X at 3.6

[danshan11]

You are more correct if you base your calculations on a 2% edge, but not really. With a 2% edge you need to win a little over 49% of your bets to make a profit. The standard deviation after 1k bets does not change. I still win between 469 and 531 bets 95% of the time (that is with a huge number of "1000x rolls as you'd state it". I'd need to win about 490 to make a profit. That still means, with only 1k bets (and I do about 3k/year) that I have about an 80% probability of profit after 3.5 months (1k bets). That number goes way up to over 90% after a year with 3k+ bets. You are off somewhere.

honestly I am very confused,
I am saying if you flip a coin 1000 times
only 6 out of 10 times will you break even or win more than lose with a 2% edge

[Alfa1234]

[QUOTE=danshan11;28072374]honestly I am very confused,

Just recalculated, you are right with the 2% edge, my apologies. Luckily mine is higher than that and the bets posted here have well over 5% (close to 8% actually) on average.

[Alfa1234]

Update, up 26.28 units for now.

23/sep	Universidad VS Colunga 2	2,2	1,2
	Barcelona VS Girona BTS	2,15	1,15
	Dynamo Minsk VS Luch Minsk X2	3,8	-1
	Albirex VS Hougang BTS	2,95	1,95
	Rosengard VS Kristianstadt Women X2	2,99	-1
	Akzhaiyk VS Astana 1X	3,05	-1
	GBK Kokkola VS kufu 98 X2	3,05	-1
	Dynamo Kiev VS Desna X2	5,75	-1
	Ilves Tampereen VS Pallokissat Women X2	3,2	-1
	HJK Helsinki VS Jypk Women X2	6,5	-1
	Prykarpattya VS Volochysk 2	3,58	-1
	Vita Hasten VS Bjorkloven 2	2,2	-1
24/sep	Unterhaching VS Munich 1860 X2	1,8
	Nomme Kalju II VS Flora Tallinn II 1X	4,05	3,05
	Shanghai VS Xinjian X2	3,75	-1
	Slovan Liberec VS Spartak Prague 2	2,2	1,2
	Sporting VS Maritimo X2	4,65
	Crewe Alexandra VS Birmingham U23 2	1,8	-1
	Cardiff VS Millwall U23 1	2,4	-1
	Lotte VS Carl Zeiss Jena 2	3,2	-1
	Atletico Barranquilla VS Colon Santa Fe 1	1,95
	Necaxa VS Leon 2	3,55	2,55
	Glasgow Rangers VS Motherwell R 1	1,55	0,55
	Viktoria Koln VS Kaan Marienborn U1,5	5,2	-1
	Wattens VS Wacker Innbruck II 2,03	2,03
	Atletico VS Huesca 1 wins by 1	4	-1
26/sep	Indjija VS Zemun 1	3,58	-1
	Sigma Olomouc VS Trinec X2	5,5	-1
	Slavia Prague VS Usti X2	6,9
	Esperance VS Stade Tunisien X2	4,2	3,2
	Tur Biels VS Termalici X2	5,55	-1
	Zirka VS Olimpik Donetsk 1X	8	7
	Cherkasskyi Vs Arsenal Kiev U2,5	1,7	-1
	West Ham VS Macclesfield U9,5 Corners	1,85
	Chernomorets Vs Spartak Moscow 1X	3,6
	Arsenal Kiev VS Dynamo Kiev 1X	7,9
			26,28

[danshan11]

awesome work keep it up!

[shocka1212]

[Alfa1234]

Update with a few more games finished, up 25.93 units now.

22/sep	Yeni Malatayaspor VS Rizespor 2	3,81	-1
	Madrid VS Raye Vallecano Women X2	2,5	1,5
	Torpedo VS Gomel 1X	1,33	0,33
	DPMM Brunei VS Tampines BTS	1,52	0,52
	Peterhead VS Berwick BTS	2,31	-1
	BK 46 VS Musa Pori 1x	3,05	-1
	akranes Vs Throttur Reykjavic X2	2,8	1,8
	Honka VS TPS Women X2	6,2	-1
	Botev Vratsa VS CSKA Sofia BTSN	1,73	0,73
	Kelanta VS Sabah 1	2,1	1,1
	DPMM Brunei VS Tampines 1x	1,84	0,84
	Man United VS Wolves Unt wins by 1	3,85	-1
	Rabotnicki Skopje VS Vardar Skopje x2	2,79	1,79
	Greuter Furth VS Hamburg 2	2,45
	Caernarfon VS Llanelli 1	1,75	0,75
	Njardvik VS Selfoss 1	2,1	1,1
	Aris VS Dynamo Tbilisi 1 min 19,5	1,85	0,85
	Lillehammer VS Stavanger 2	2,15	1,15
	Votuporanguense VS Batatais X2	2,75	-1
	Alebrijes oaxaca VS Dorados X2	1,92	-1
23/sep	Universidad VS Colunga 2	2,2	1,2
	Barcelona VS Girona BTS	2,15	1,15
	Dynamo Minsk VS Luch Minsk X2	3,8	-1
	Albirex VS Hougang BTS	2,95	1,95
	Rosengard VS Kristianstadt Women X2	2,99	-1
	Akzhaiyk VS Astana 1X	3,05	-1
	GBK Kokkola VS kufu 98 X2	3,05	-1
	Dynamo Kiev VS Desna X2	5,75	-1
	Ilves Tampereen VS Pallokissat Women X2	3,2	-1
	HJK Helsinki VS Jypk Women X2	6,5	-1
	Prykarpattya VS Volochysk 2	3,58	-1
	Vita Hasten VS Bjorkloven 2	2,2	-1
24/sep	Unterhaching VS Munich 1860 X2	1,8	0,8
	Nomme Kalju II VS Flora Tallinn II 1X	4,05	3,05
	Shanghai VS Xinjian X2	3,75	-1
	Slovan Liberec VS Spartak Prague 2	2,2	1,2
	Sporting VS Maritimo X2	4,65
	Crewe Alexandra VS Birmingham U23 2	1,8	-1
	Cardiff VS Millwall U23 1	2,4	-1
	Lotte VS Carl Zeiss Jena 2	3,2	-1
	Atletico Barranquilla VS Colon Santa Fe 1	1,95
	Necaxa VS Leon 2	3,55	2,55
	Glasgow Rangers VS Motherwell R 1	1,55	0,55
	Viktoria Koln VS Kaan Marienborn U1,5	5,2	-1
	Wattens VS Wacker Innbruck II 2,03	2,03
	Atletico VS Huesca 1 wins by 1	4	-1
26/sep	Indjija VS Zemun 1	3,58	-1
	Sigma Olomouc VS Trinec X2	5,5	-1
	Slavia Prague VS Usti X2	6,9	-1
	Esperance VS Stade Tunisien X2	4,2	3,2
	Tur Biels VS Termalici X2	5,55	-1
	Zirka VS Olimpik Donetsk 1X	8	7
	Cherkasskyi Vs Arsenal Kiev U2,5	1,7	-1
	West Ham VS Macclesfield O9,5 Corners	1,85	0,85
	Chernomorets Vs Spartak Moscow 1X	3,6	-1
	Arsenal Kiev VS Dynamo Kiev 1X	7,9
			25,93

[PAULYPOKER]

That is absolutely absurd to say. You cannot be serious. Try betting a 10 point under dog and the money line and seeing them up 20 to 10 at half, and then its 20 to 17 with 10 mins left in the 4th quarter. You'd be sweating it out with this theory vs. essentially locking up $. The correct play would be something like $300 on the spread and then 100-300 on the money line depending how confident you were. You could also try something like - $100 spread, 50 money line, and 50 1st half spread in that situation.

Even if you bet favorites - what's the point of laying 500 to win 200 on a money only every time? There's so many different plays scenarios, open-parlays, teasers, live lines, 1st half to work a bet than "money line only"

The goal is getting the juice out of the play without a lottery play..........

Bet even to + odds under 200.........

[danshan11]

I think people dont understand what they make when they bet or actually what the lose either case. we pay juice if it stays the same or against us and we make the gap if it goes with us, overall not a penny more or less.

[Alfa1234]

Back at it, Friday 28 sept.

Galatasaray VS Erzusumspor 1 wins by 1 at 4.45

[Alfa1234]

Norwich VS Man Utd U 23 1X at 1.77
Energia VS Fakel X2 at 2.18

[Alfa1234]

Metta VS Spartaks Jurmala O2.5 at 1.96

[Alfa1234]

Munster VS Ulster 1 min 12.5 at 1.87

[Alfa1234]

Saracens VS Bath 1 min 19.5 at 1.87

[Alfa1234]

Sabayil II VS Agsu 1 at 1.85

[Alfa1234]

River Andorra VS Real Murcia 1 min 5.5 at 1.85

[5mike5]

The only thing LOL u just made a fool of urself

[Alfa1234]

Connacht VS Leinster 2 min 4.5 at 1.87

[Alfa1234]

The only thing LOL u just made a fool of urself

How is that?

[Alfa1234]

Rodovre VS Rungsted 2 at 1.98

[Alfa1234]

Dundalk VS Dublin X2 at 6.9

[Alfa1234]

Done for the day. Update:

22/sep	Yeni Malatayaspor VS Rizespor 2	3,81	-1
	Madrid VS Raye Vallecano Women X2	2,5	1,5
	Torpedo VS Gomel 1X	1,33	0,33
	DPMM Brunei VS Tampines BTS	1,52	0,52
	Peterhead VS Berwick BTS	2,31	-1
	BK 46 VS Musa Pori 1x	3,05	-1
	akranes Vs Throttur Reykjavic X2	2,8	1,8
	Honka VS TPS Women X2	6,2	-1
	Botev Vratsa VS CSKA Sofia BTSN	1,73	0,73
	Kelanta VS Sabah 1	2,1	1,1
	DPMM Brunei VS Tampines 1x	1,84	0,84
	Man United VS Wolves Unt wins by 1	3,85	-1
	Rabotnicki Skopje VS Vardar Skopje x2	2,79	1,79
	Greuter Furth VS Hamburg 2	2,45	-1
	Caernarfon VS Llanelli 1	1,75	0,75
	Njardvik VS Selfoss 1	2,1	1,1
	Aris VS Dynamo Tbilisi 1 min 19,5	1,85	0,85
	Lillehammer VS Stavanger 2	2,15	1,15
	Votuporanguense VS Batatais X2	2,75	-1
	Alebrijes oaxaca VS Dorados X2	1,92	-1
23/sep	Universidad VS Colunga 2	2,2	1,2
	Barcelona VS Girona BTS	2,15	1,15
	Dynamo Minsk VS Luch Minsk X2	3,8	-1
	Albirex VS Hougang BTS	2,95	1,95
	Rosengard VS Kristianstadt Women X2	2,99	-1
	Akzhaiyk VS Astana 1X	3,05	-1
	GBK Kokkola VS kufu 98 X2	3,05	-1
	Dynamo Kiev VS Desna X2	5,75	-1
	Ilves Tampereen VS Pallokissat Women X2	3,2	-1
	HJK Helsinki VS Jypk Women X2	6,5	-1
	Prykarpattya VS Volochysk 2	3,58	-1
	Vita Hasten VS Bjorkloven 2	2,2	-1
24/sep	Unterhaching VS Munich 1860 X2	1,8	0,8
	Nomme Kalju II VS Flora Tallinn II 1X	4,05	3,05
	Shanghai VS Xinjian X2	3,75	-1
	Slovan Liberec VS Spartak Prague 2	2,2	1,2
	Sporting VS Maritimo X2	4,65
	Crewe Alexandra VS Birmingham U23 2	1,8	-1
	Cardiff VS Millwall U23 1	2,4	-1
	Lotte VS Carl Zeiss Jena 2	3,2	-1
	Atletico Barranquilla VS Colon Santa Fe 1	1,95	0,95
	Necaxa VS Leon 2	3,55	2,55
	Glasgow Rangers VS Motherwell R 1	1,55	0,55
	Viktoria Koln VS Kaan Marienborn U1,5	5,2	-1
	Wattens VS Wacker Innbruck II X2 2,03	2,03
	Atletico VS Huesca 1 wins by 1	4	-1
26/sep	Indjija VS Zemun 1	3,58	-1
	Sigma Olomouc VS Trinec X2	5,5	-1
	Slavia Prague VS Usti X2	6,9	-1
	Esperance VS Stade Tunisien X2	4,2	3,2
	Tur Biels VS Termalici X2	5,55	-1
	Zirka VS Olimpik Donetsk 1X	8	7
	Cherkasskyi Vs Arsenal Kiev U2,5	1,7	-1
	West Ham VS Macclesfield O9,5 Corners	1,85	0,85
	Chernomorets Vs Spartak Moscow 1X	3,6	-1
	Arsenal Kiev VS Dynamo Kiev 1X	7,9
28/sep	Galatasaray VS Erzurumspor 1 wins by 1	4,45
	Norwich VS Man Utd U23 1X	1,77	-1
	Energia VS Fakel X2	2,18
	Metta VS Jurmala O2,5	1,96
	Munster VS Ulster 1 min 12,5	1,87
	Sabayil VS Agsu 1	1,85	0,85
	River Andorra VS Real Murcia 1 min 5,5	1,85
	Connachts VS Leinster 2 min 4,5	1,87
	Rodovre VS Rungsted 2	1,98
	Dundalk VS Dublin X2	6,9
			25,73

[flakeandbake]

I think people dont understand what they make when they bet or actually what the lose either case. we pay juice if it stays the same or against us and we make the gap if it goes with us, overall not a penny more or less.

Still so focused on juice vs winning plays imo

[Alfa1234]

Update, up 28.17 units now.

24/sep	Unterhaching VS Munich 1860 X2	1,8	0,8
	Nomme Kalju II VS Flora Tallinn II 1X	4,05	3,05
	Shanghai VS Xinjian X2	3,75	-1
	Slovan Liberec VS Spartak Prague 2	2,2	1,2
	Sporting VS Maritimo X2	4,65
	Crewe Alexandra VS Birmingham U23 2	1,8	-1
	Cardiff VS Millwall U23 1	2,4	-1
	Lotte VS Carl Zeiss Jena 2	3,2	-1
	Atletico Barranquilla VS Colon Santa Fe 1	1,95	0,95
	Necaxa VS Leon 2	3,55	2,55
	Glasgow Rangers VS Motherwell R 1	1,55	0,55
	Viktoria Koln VS Kaan Marienborn U1,5	5,2	-1
	Wattens VS Wacker Innbruck II X2 2,03	2,03	1,03
	Atletico VS Huesca 1 wins by 1	4	-1
26/sep	Indjija VS Zemun 1	3,58	-1
	Sigma Olomouc VS Trinec X2	5,5	-1
	Slavia Prague VS Usti X2	6,9	-1
	Esperance VS Stade Tunisien X2	4,2	3,2
	Tur Biels VS Termalici X2	5,55	-1
	Zirka VS Olimpik Donetsk 1X	8	7
	Cherkasskyi Vs Arsenal Kiev U2,5	1,7	-1
	West Ham VS Macclesfield O9,5 Corners	1,85	0,85
	Chernomorets Vs Spartak Moscow 1X	3,6	-1
	Arsenal Kiev VS Dynamo Kiev 1X	7,9
28/sep	Galatasaray VS Erzurumspor 1 wins by 1	4,45	3,45
	Norwich VS Man Utd U23 1X	1,77	-1
	Energia VS Fakel X2	2,18
	Metta VS Jurmala O2,5	1,96	0,96
	Munster VS Ulster 1 min 12,5	1,87
	Sabayil VS Agsu 1	1,85	0,85
	River Andorra VS Real Murcia 1 min 5,5	1,85	-1
	Connachts VS Leinster 2 min 4,5	1,87
	Rodovre VS Rungsted 2	1,98	-1
	Dundalk VS Dublin X2	6,9	-1
			28,17

[flakeandbake]

honestly I am very confused,
I am saying if you flip a coin 1000 times
only 6 out of 10 times will you break even or win more than lose with a 2% edge

You can flip a coin until your blue in the face. Or you can be disciplined and open up your eyes and wait for a gift. If you wait 2 weeks and you can't put yourself in a 55% situation you should gamble on stocks or something - not sports.

[danshan11]

Still so focused on juice vs winning plays imo

I do not see any way to make money without beating the line. You cant pick winners when the line is set up to make it a coin flip and you are paying -104 to -110 to flip it. I am not exactly sure what I am missing on this subject but always open to learning, please keep it coming. My only other issue is you need a huge number of bets to overcome variance. Your argument of it not being necessary to beat the line just pick winners is not how pinnacle works and I really think I would love to follow their lead in my betting dreams! I cant doubt you have the skill to beat the market on select bets but for me, I have to create a fair line for the game and if it is off my line, I try and bet it and hope it goes my way, best I can do!

[lonegambler23]

can you at least post american odds so all of us know wtf is going on...

[flakeandbake]

I posted one play tonight - Yankees money line in the MLB thread (I try not to waste people's time on picks)

[Alfa1234]

can you at least post american odds so all of us know wtf is going on...

I bet in decimals and do my accounting in decimals. So no. Decimals are actually easier to understand and calculate once you get used to them.

Simply multiply the unit number you bet by the decimal number to get the payout. Say the odd is 2.54 that means for every unit you bet you'll get 2.54 units back if you win (incl the stake) so the American odd is +154. For odds above 2.0 simply deduct 1 from the decimal odd and multiply the number by 100 to get the American odd. (so 2.54 min 1 = 1.54 and 1.54x100 = +154)

For odds below +100 it's the same but much easier to calculate in decimals. Say the decimal odd is 1.4 that means for every unit you bet and win, you get back 1.4 units incl the stake so your profit is 0.4. That would equal -250 in American odds. To quickly calculate and convert them simply deduct 1 from the decimal odd and divide 100 by that number. So 1.4 min 1 = 0.4 and 100/0.4= 250

[Alfa1234]

Saturday 29 sept:

Australia VS New Zealand Women 1 at 1.44
Copenhagen VS Svendborg 1 +13.5 at 1.85
France VS Nigeria 2 +13.5 at 1.86
Lech II VS Pgon Szczecin X2 at 3.85
Difaa El Jadida VS Tanger X at 3.9

[Alfa1234]

Antwerp Giants VS Cantu 2 at 2.03

[Alfa1234]

Reading VS Southampton U23 1x at 1.7